Editorial: Wheat prices – a great big mess

[bucket]

Tom

Maybe you haven't been invited to the mafia collusionary afternoon teas the graincos hold occasionally?

I haven't , but you should have been elected spokesman by now.

Try a little harder, will you?

[farmaholic]

Tom, but they(Canadian grain sellers)
are all competing for that same business/tender and any one of them don't have the monopoly on Canadian grain. Soooo if the want the business you have to undercut your competition unless you can provide the buyer some other tangible benefit for choosing you.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket et;el:

All I did was point out some rather simple facts that should be obvious to anyone who understands marketing and value chains.

A tiny bit of balance to this 'Editorial'... point of view.



Cheers!

God Bless Canada!!!

[bucket]

Yeah you got to get off whatever Kool aid you are drinking.

You and your buddy ritz have things really ****ed up if you haven't realized it yet.

[bucket]

And don't tell me I want the old system bac. I don't but this one is not a good replacement.

[fjlip]

bgmb, I said they know where the grain is/will be, but why not ALL the control? RR provide the service, should NOT pick winners and losers in the car lottery! Only excuse allowed should be "the track is out".

[TOM4CWB]

All the best Bucket!

Hope you have a good Christmas!

Nice to see wheat prices rise... I see some $6.75 2 13.5px here in Ab in the last week offered.

I see the mildew issue is being demythed at the CIGI and work towards pushing CDN grading towards Quality Specs... instead of visual grading.

Positive directions to create value for growers and nudge us towards a value based grading system...

We wouldn't want to confuse folks by exposing the myths and shining a little light on the facts... would we Bucket?

Thanks for your help!

Cheers

[bucket]

We are still a buck behind that here.

5.90 in mpls which is where every graincos bases their price. In cdn bucks that's 6.75. Plus whatever your basis is.

Wheat should lead but since the railways and graincos have been given the green light to pull the same shit as last winter by your buddy ritz, you should prosper.

And here all along I thought you were freedom fighting for all farmers.

I guess you fooled me too like my conservative MPS.

[charliep]

I was called out by foragefarmer for bringing up history in another but it is sometimes interesting to look at the process of getting where we how we got here.

Prior to 1992. No price information given out by the single desk CWB. Delivery opportunity based on quota.

1992 - First Pool Return outlook. Farmers were given a look at the first CWB generated final payment forecast based on their sales program. About the same time fusarium hit the Red River valley of Manitoba. Differences in grading systems created opportunity to move wheat south at a substantial premium. Beginning of CWB buybacks.

Can't remember the dates but a move from a quota based delivery system to a contracted volume one.

2000 ish - The first single desk CWB generated contracts - producer payment options. An advance payment tool that could be compared to US prices. Basis levels as ugly if not uglier than those of this past winter. No firm delivery commitment - delivery separated from price.

A few delivery contracts to help some farmers better manage access to market/storage better.

Aug. 1, 2012. Open market. Local cash prices easily available. Many companies text farmers their bids every day. Delivery based on commercial arrangements with the grain company and the farmer.

Perhaps my point is that western Canada has got here by evolution - not revolution.

So then what is the vision of the future.

Better region and port based cash pricing information. Not sure whether based on government regulation or industry agreement/cooperation.

A functioning Canadian wheat futures market or some other alternative of cash market. Better price discovery and ways for everyone in the supply to manage risk.

If I were to be really wild, a functioning cash price risk management program like Western Livestock Price Insurance Program.

[farmaholic]

To the RR portion of this thread, hard to argue with this sort of "success".

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q605/yip2/charting.png" border="0" alt="CPR Share Price photo charting.png"/></a>



Just trying to be an antagonist, er hem I mean point out CP's success.

[bucket]

If the graph has to do with railways where did the grain get pulled from and where did prices reflect that movement?

[farmaholic]

bucket, I farm SE of Regina, We got movement in the much later part of last crop year and my plans to load 18 producers cars evaporated when I was told the RRs were 6 to 8 weeks behind in spotting. I don't have that much extra bin space. So orders were cancelled even after the tentative letter and then the confirmation letters were received. There would have never been enough time or bodies around here to harvest and load producer cars at the same time. The inefficiencies of producer cars would have got in the way of the RR's catch up plans.

[bucket]

Put the bins at the loading facility and away you go.

Producer spots could help if the railways and graincos were not colluding to force grain where they wanted it.

Government is applauding the inefficiencies.

And refuse to do a ****ing thing about it. At least liberals through some cash at us to shut us up.

[foragefarmer]

Tom4cwb
You stated

The blending cost to get rid of our CWRS can't be cheap!!! What percent CWRS to DNS quality does Japan use each year? 20 percent CWRS quality to 80 percent DNS in Japanese bakeries be close?

2012 calender year
MAFF purchases different types of wheat, mainly from the United States, Canada and Australaia, to best
meet the needs of Japanese users.
Table 10: Major Types of Imported Wheat and Their Uses (Unit: MT)
Class Use JFY2012 Import Volume

U.S. Dark Northern Spring (DNS) Bread and Chinese noodles 1,220,000
Canada Western Red Spring #1 (1CW) Bread 989,000

Tom where did you dream up your numbers from. For the 2012 calender year the percentage of CWRS is 45% and DNS is 55% purchased by Japan. This was published in March 2014. Get your facts straight Tom!!

[TOM4CWB]

Thanks Forage!

You got the point that Japan buys the majority of their wheat from the US.

The US is the most reliable wheat shipper in the world. Japan pays a premium for premium wheat. Obviously we need to do better here in Western Canada. The CWB gamble on weak gluten didn't win global acceptance. Just like the flop on hard white.

As usual... The customers must drive quality traits.