Why all the negativity?

[Klause]

Oil will only go down down down. Grains will only go down down down.

Um. Right. That's what happened before so it'll happen again... NOT.


Only hear about ROSNEFT's threats... don't hear about the 25,000 bbl/day cut Russia committed to.

If the Saudis are trying to start a price war... the US election isn't far away. Republicans won't let the middle east compromise the US's energy independence.

Only hear about monster US crops. Don't hear about downgrading around the world.



This is just like before the last huge runup... down down down till one day there's an oh shit moment and it's up up up.

[ajl]

Oil and Grain are actually quite high still and have room to go down further. In the 1980's commodity prices did not bottom until 6 yrs after the peak in 1980. There were 3 large corn crops in 85, 86 and 87 which is when commodity prices bottomed. US dollar index peaked in 85. So things could be much worse than they are now. The main problem is that all input prices except interest rates spiraled upwards and are based on 10 wheat and 14 canola and they will take a long time to come down.

[tweety]

'they will take a long time to come down'

They only go up. Always have, always will.

[Klause]

There's a huge difference between today and the 80s.


That was an organic boom. This isn't. Prices are running up because too much paper money exists.

This gong show is far from over IMHO.

[ado089]

Actually this boom was meant to happen too, if you buy into demographics, spending waves and commodity cycles, ect. The trouble is that it was also meant to bust. When bubbles bust they normally drop back to or just below where they started. So we need to go back to circa 2005-2006 numbers for alot of assets before we can start a more paced climb up. Stimulus and negative interest rates are doing SFA for the real economy, they are merely running up the equity markets.

I find it cute that all the experts keep saying that energy, uranium, precious metals ect, need to go up because the price is dropping below the COP. Maybe it's time for the COP to drop to match the commodity price? We're used to doing it in farming but it seems like the bloated spending the other commodity producers have become accustom to might need to be re-examined.

Klause, for young guys like us a complete blowout is the best thing that can happen, especially if you're smart with your cash. Making land purchases at record low interest rates and still relatively high grain prices during one of the longest stretches of good crops (for most of western canada) should scare the shit out of you.

This go around it won't be inflation that drives up interest rates, it will be defaults...big ones. Those big defaults will be deflationary. So many people forget or don't know that with fractional reserve banking the amount of money a central bank prints is peanuts when compared to the money created through private and corporate debt creation. Something that has come to a screeching halt.

[cottonpicken]

Klause,i started down this rabbit hole when you where getting your drivers licence,it takes time and progression to understand it and i know you'll get there,just be prepared for "it".

There is no playbook for we are at .

Ado,contemplate the sovereign default of japan,look at what greece did to the world.

When you guys are thinking about this stuff you may want to throw the words deflation and inflation out of your minds,just focus on cause and effect,action and reaction.

The "big" problem has and always will be timing.

[sumdumguy]

Cotton, didn't we hear you lecture us about inevitable inflation and our savior, "gold" for the last 3 years?

[oneoff]

Only by accident does any one consistently call future events.

I do wonder if a person should worry much over crisis situations such as Sask found itself in some 20 years ago. Long term bonds were issued that bore above 10% interest rates because of our low credit rating.

Rightly or wrongly I have become convinced that the most important factor would have been to weigh the possibility that Sask might default and collapse.....against what that possibility would have meant in total if it did come true. The loss on those bonds would have been insignificant compared to all the other economic chaos that all Sask residents would have suffered for some decades or generations.

Those bonds have just recently all matured; and they probably were the safest and best investment that holders ever made.

And for those most interested in the top story of the day...ebola hasn't been controlled and the world is still playing with fire until new cases drop to zero numbers.

Contemplate the potential and inevitable mutation of the virus into even more virulent forms as we take our time in tackling this real problem of our small world.

[sumdumguy]

Newfoundland derives approx 1/3 of government revenue from oil and the premier called a halt to discretionary spending and hiring. At least he is acknowledging the problem.

[cottonpicken]

Excuse me?

The lecture started ten years ago,gold was 375,oil 27 and land at whatever.

Told you to buy all 3.

How did that work out?

Gold is one path among many.

And what have you been foreseeing for past years?Something i can reference please.

Read an article this morning that a thanksgiving meal at advertised restaurant is 6000% higher than 1909.

Want to see a little math magic?

Gold 1909=20$
6000%=60x
60x20=1200
gold this morning=1186

The fact it took a break from annualizing at 20% for a decade is no big deal.

Tell me again i dont know what i'm talking about.

Next time i take the gloves off.

[sumdumguy]

Every dog has his day but the smart dogs know when to call it a day.

[oneoff]

Most people only worry about themselves....a few worry about slightly larger pissants such as themselves.

[Hopalong]

According to Scotiabank all commodity index, after inflation, not much real change for past forty years.

[cottonpicken]

Scotiabank needs a kick in the teeth.

Has everyone lost their ****in mind?

What would be wrong with prices staying relatively the same?

Oh ya the governments couldnt **** us through inflation-which is in FACT a tax!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Goggle it

This little shell game is very close to coming to an end.