Thoughts on the market/strategies

[furrowtickler]

#1 13.5 here is barely over $6 -
If I could get $7 it would be all gone

[furrowtickler]

One of the reasons land in Sask is cheaper and always will be - wheat / Bly/ and canola always at a discount b/c of freight or just general looting by local elevators

[mbdog]

My thoughts...wheats continue to show bottoming action...fundamentals/rhetoric still overhang this market. Still going to be issues with converting grain to cash re:grade spreads/premiums-discounts whether using long bin or basis contracts strategy.
Looks like lots of technical barriers between 6.25-7.50 minny futures... which means nothing without posted/known/forecasted grade spreads in the conversion to cash/net to me.
Grade spread should play out, but such a wildcard to capture.
Net to me...low to high quality HRS...6-8$ is my winter target range for sale of physicals. based on technical barriers, known fundamentals and recent cash action.
Dec could remain volatile but certainly, and argueably shots are being fired across the buy bow. I choose to remain patient with a mix of long bin/deferred basis.

[fjlip]

Wheat futures peak early May, Canola June- July, 90% of the time. Wonder if this snow has moisture, deep and fluffy now. Bags will be way more work.

[mbdog]

Fj...do you think seasonals are still largely at play?

[fjlip]

Sure looked like it, now wheat strength is a surprise, chart is straight up, 6.52 Dec MGE next resistance, then on to $7?

[mbdog]

Action making charts look good...promising...maybe builds case for seasonals if you run the chart out....assuming weakness is bought....which I don't know how anyone could interpret the charts any other way. Intensity of lift is interesting... enough for me to wait it out for a while.
Shoulda bought those calls Wind came up around 2...Pretty sure it was caused by all the bin doors slamming shut

[mbdog]

then again...seen futures shit the bed to many times after a couple of days like this...I may need to gut check/re-evaluate over next couple days/weeks...but will remain patient on futures given recent developments.