sad faces

[Klause]

Low grain prices. Low oil prices. Low gas prices.


Prairies will be in a sad state till the next rally.

[Oliver88]

Fertiizer prices not low.

On a positive note, wheat was up 16 cents Friday.

[freewheat]

Not great, but I remember 4.80 canola, 4.80 flax, 1.25 oats, 2.10 wheat, 1.35 barley, 2.19 malt, 3.00 peas, 9 cent canary, 59 cent calves.

And I am 38 years old. Of course, nitrogen was 18 cents, fuel 29 cents, invigor seed( that actually was vigorous and when liberty was not watered down blue iced tea), for 2.95 a lb.

I agree though, if a guy was buying a bunch of stuff based upon 12 dollar canola and 8 dollar wheat, life would suck.

How long do you think until it rebounds, Klause? If this lasts a few years, what does everyone think will happen with land values? Banker told me yesterday around here they have softened big time already...

Worst case scenario. It doesn't rain. But the prices stay stagnant. Three year drought.

Guys who sold their cows cuz their boys want half million dollar toys and winter long skidooing parties, are probably regretting that about now? Guys going to buy back into cattle?

Long faces indeed...

[BreadWinner]

Just hold on there boys, last time I checked the oil price drop is not a result World Economy Problems. OVERSUPPLYOVERSUPPLYOVERSUPPLY!!!!! Keep fracking and punching more holes oil boys.
Those ocean freighters are getting allot cheaper by the second to haul your grains to China and anywhere else around the world. The dollar will get cheaper making your grain also cheaper on a world scale.
Those trains full of oil will now be interested in hauling your grain.
This could actually increase your bottom line.

[Richard5]

i totally agree Klaus however wish to add that the length of time we are going to see this is 2 years. i sure hope fellow farmers have there finances in order and are not sticking there neck on in a year like this.

i hear of some large land deals this past year and really wonder how much has been borrowed. Then there is the equipment deals. I am sure some are doing it with cash but those that are borrowing for most of it look out.

[BreadWinner]

I think banks always use the debt to equity ratio. The more you have the more you can borrow. I think a farm in the establishing or growth stage would have allot different numbers than one in "the always stay the same-inherited everything I have situation".

[freewheat]

No right answer.

[MBgrower]

For all those buying land at $4500/ac and raising cash rents to $120, i hope grain prices go even lower for another 5 years. Then i can buy or rent their land after the creditors send them hiking.

[ado089]

Free wheat, don't forget you could buy a dozen Pil for $12 on sale back then too. I rented a 2 bedroom house in Bruno for $175/month around then too and a new f150 could be purchased for about $24k.

Those things aside when I was buying $4.80 canola we had one key competitive advantage...cheap land. $24 rent and $850/ac would buy you some of the best land in the country.

[farmaholic]

$0.00/acre LOC or Op loan...just came out of some good times. Let's see what the future holds.

$80.00/acre 3-5 year term liability

$0.00/acre long term liability

Too much under utilized equity, but I'm full.
Did hobby call it lazy capital?

[Hopperbin]

Richard you could put that whole debt on your checking account over draft at the lowest rate. Why bother with long mid and what ever your talking about?

[freewheat]

Heck, ado, land prices here were sub 500 bucks an acre for deep black clay loam.

[Klause]

Sad thing is if we had some smart leaders, we could put an end to Russia and the Arab Turds in a hurry.

Run oil into the ground. And flood the world with shale oil. I wonder how long OPEC would continue to produce 30 million barrels/day if they had no one to sell it to, hmm?

[seabass]

I would say 100 to 120 for 5 year loans. Depends on long term yields and avg prices for each farm. What your risk tolerence and long term plans for farm. Do u have another generation looking to take over. Lots of different scenarios.

[Richard5]

I could do that Hopper however that doesn't make a lot of sense unless you don't have a lot of debt which may be your situation

The interest rate is basically the same either way if securing it with hard assets

The problem with a large loc as you are suggesting is that its really supposed to be short term and not carry a large balance all year.

In addition, when times get real tough the next 2 to 3 years as I feel they are going to, you are refinancing to 5 to 10 year term debt anyway to give you some wiggle room to operate