HRS

[farmaholic]

Furrow, I'm so glad the hear your not "committed" to a single company through a basis contract or some other hobbling contract. Why limit your options.

[RidgeRunner]

Priced some $7.00 #2 14.0 yesterday before this big up day today, basis levels weakened of course, but can still get 7 in May for 2 red 13.5 which the rest of mine is, said it was all gone at $7.........basis has eroded 10 bucks in 3 weeks, should have locked it in but who knew :central MB

[furrowtickler]

Just wanted to point out that their not really buying at these levels - they are taking... Locals are all taking wheat here as well but they are not 'buying' it. Actually they are taking low grade wheat and trying to steal higher grades.
If they were buying, the prices should reflect closer to what the real market should be - which is $.50 to $1.50 more than what is being offered to take your grain. Movement not the issue, it's getting paid fairly for quality product.
It's paid to wait so far, just not sure what to do, or how much longer to wait. Futures could tank as fast as they have gone up on a whim and this may seem like an early Christmas gift. I would jump all over this rally if it were not for the fact there is far too much "money out" IMO to the real market.
At least it is closer in Alberta, but we are not $1/bus in freight off central Alberta.
Again as of today if central Alberta is $7.25 we should be around $6.75 to $7 but it's not even fukin close.....
I know with our grades and yields we should dump and run on paper - but it's the principal that irks me - we all left a huge sum of cash on the table last year just to have the good fortune to have our grain moved by this grain moffia and rail robbers - and they are trying to stick us again.

[stonepicker]

How come some farmers are always getting ripped off by the evil grain co. and railroads and some farmers aren't ? How quickly people forget that when the great cwb was giving our wht. away that the ship demurage came right off your wht. chq. How come canola works and wht. doesn't ? They both work.

[bucket]

So explain the riddle of pricing.

6.50 usd in mpls today. Basically a zero basis at the local. And in Canadian funds I can't see 7 bucks? Matter of fact can't even see 6.50 cdn. That's 70 cents in fx into thin air?

Interesting.

[Rareearth]

Demurage - general revenue?

[farmaholic]

Canola never "worked" last year either!!
We have a domestic crushing industry that didn't have to ante up because we basically had no export market for them to compete with. Other Posters here complained about the price discrepancy between beans and canola and how this wonderful product was supposed to be priced at a premium to beans... when logistics broke down, there went the market. Didn't matter if canola on the west coast would have been $17.50 a bushel, you couldn't get it there in the most efficient overland method known--on rail. And if the GrainCos couldn't get it there they can't sell it therefore buy it from us and create competition for the domestic crush, blah blah blah.... Nothing broken.

[jdepape]

Basis is a price - not a cost.
And price is a function of supply and demand.

When elevator basis (their price) gets low, it's reflecting the balance of supply (deliveries from farms) and demand (ability to ship). Economics 101.

And it seems whenever things appear bad - like now or most of last year - the fingers point at railroads and the graincos. But that's just the demand side of the equation.

To say prices are low (basis) because the graincos are gouging or ripping guys off, I always wonder why no one talks about the supply side of this particular s/d assessment. No one talks about what the farmer is doing.

The fundamental reason prices (basis) are low -and were low last year - is because farmers keep selling even at the low prices. Right now, wheat stocks in the system are actually building, which means current supply is larger than nearby demand and we all know what that means to price (basis). And if you don't lay some of the responsibility for those low prices on farmers, you've missed your opportunity to fix the problem.

[bucket]

Ok depape. Fair comments. But what does it tell you when you go from a minus 80 per tonne basis to a positive 20 per tonne basis and in the same time period the dollar drops from 95 cents to 88?

Lower dollar our grain should be worth more.

When the open market started here we were on par and still had positive basis. It was easy to look at US futures and have a reflective price. Not so now?

[hobbyfrmr]

Wait for $5.35/bushel then " pull the trigger " . The advantage to setting a low target price is that the price will drop to it and you will miss that opportunity. Then as the price comes up again you can sell there. Even a broken clock is right, twice a day.