Clasic head fake ?

[furrowtickler]

Is HRSW market giving us one now or was this just a short two day price blip that was a small opportunity for some pricing if you were in an area that had some decent price levels?
NWT had some very good pricing compared to locals here.

[farmaholic]

Only Braveheart with his expert marksmanship can hit the
"MOVING TARGET"!!!!!!!!!

[Braveheart]

Hahaha. No. Bad eyes shaky hands. The hoodie gangstas are safe from me.

I won't write wheat off yet but not expecting any huge rallies barring some more winterkill fears.

I was hoping wheat might establish a new range to bounce in. Patience.

[charliep]

Just curious how farmers make the decision to sell/price crops? What are signals that tell you the time is right? Do you have a process for averaging sales during the year/making decisions on portions of your crop or do you believe you or someone can market everything at the top?

How do you measure your success at marketing your crops? Or better yet, do you even review your marketing decisions/average price at the end of the crop year? How do you learn from good and bad decisions and work towards continuous improvement in marketing skills/strategies?

[charliep]

I am going to put in the MGEX chart (March) to add perspective to this conversation. I know calling after the fact but breaking resistance at about $6.25/bu should have encouraged doing something. I note John DePape's ideas about carry.

A healthy market will likely test what I think will be a support level at $6/bu. Then the market start to move around in this trading range. Down the road, will the market break higher or lower from this range. No idea.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWH15"]March MGEX[/URL]

[Braveheart]

Charlie, we try to match cash flow needs with sales. We usually have to start covering those needs a long ways out.

Budget first, then forward sales made to cover expected and planned needs. Once yields are in we can reevaluate as we know our exact cost per bushel. We start looking at further sales based on market fundamentals, basis signals, carry or inverted futures, and match with cash flow not yet covered.

We are always reviewing our progress and budget. Probably similar to most.

[cottonpicken]

Furrow,this maybe a sell opportunity.

Imo,you need to look at longer time lines to apply tech,i'm obviously using a different system.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=MWH15&t=BAR&size=M&v=2&g=1&p=WN&d=X& qb=1&style=technical&template=

When i look at this,i don't think we are out of the woods at all,you need to apply your own timeline.

The big head fake was march 3 2014.

Can we break out know i have no idea with all the crazy shit going on.

[furrowtickler]

cotton, ya , I think it was, just frustrating we were not able to capture the value of that price run up a few days ago here locally.
For lack of better words we went from shitty to just ok, instead of from just ok to worth while.

[malleefarmer]

for whats its worth half way through 8000 acre harvest been a few weather delays so hired a second harvestor.

anyway sold all grain not contracted this week got the rest to go if market rallys again

[furrowtickler]

Good luck with harvest, how are yields/quality?