Statistics Canada Crop Production Estimate

[charliep]

Production of most Canadian field crops declined in 2014 from bumper crops in 2013, with most returning to levels seen in the years leading up to 2013. However, soybean production reached its sixth consecutive record high.
Farmers reported that the timing of rain throughout the fall led to a delayed harvest and lower yields in certain parts of the Prairies and in Eastern Canada.

Wheat

Canadian farmers reported total wheat production of 29.3 million tonnes, 22.0% lower than in 2013. Both harvested area (-9.4%) and average yield (-13.9%) decreased compared with 2013.

All three Prairie provinces drove the national wheat production decline as they reported both lower harvested areas and lower yields in 2014.

Canola

Nationally, canola production amounted to 15.6 million tonnes, down 13.4% from a record 18.0 million tonnes in 2013. This was the result of a 14.0% drop in average yield, from 40.0 bushels per acre in 2013 to 34.4 bushels per acre in 2014. Despite the decrease, the 2014 canola output still represents the second highest production level on record.

In Saskatchewan, canola production declined 14.5% to 7.6 million tonnes, while average yield was down 14.1% to 32.3 bushels per acre.

In Alberta, a 14.2% decrease in yield led to an 8.5% decrease in production to 5.5 million tonnes, since harvested area rose 6.7% from 2013 to 2014.

Manitoba farmers reported canola production of 2.3 million tonnes, down 19.4% from 2013. This decline was mainly the result of a 15.1% decrease in yield to 34.8 bushels per acre.

Soybeans

Canadian farmers reported another record soybean production in 2014, up 12.9% from 2013 to 6.0 million tonnes. Harvested area increased 20.2% to 5.5 million acres, more than offsetting a 6.1% decline in average yield.

Ontario soybean production rose 17.1% from 2013 to 3.8 million tonnes, surpassing the previous record set in 2012, while average yield (-0.9%) was marginally lower compared with 2013.

In Manitoba, soybean production reached a new record of 1.1 million tonnes, up 3.7% from 2013. This was the result of a 20.6% increase in harvested area, as yield decreased 14.1% from 2013 to 32.3 bushels per acre.

In Quebec, production of soybeans rose 6.0% to a record 898 000 tonnes. This gain occurred despite an 11.6% decrease in yield, as harvested area was up 20.0%.

Corn for grain

Canadian corn for grain production was down 19.1% to 11.5 million tonnes. This was the result of a 17.1% decline in harvested area, combined with a 2.4% decrease in average yield to 149.2 bushels per acre.

In Ontario, production of corn for grain fell 15.6% to 7.6 million tonnes. This decline was attributable to a 15.8% decrease in harvested area, as average yield ( 0.2%) was virtually unchanged from 2013.

Corn for grain production in Quebec decreased 19.8% to 3.0 million tonnes, as a result of declines in both harvested area (-13.9%) and average yield (-6.9%).

Barley and oats

At the national level, farmers reported barley production of 7.1 million tonnes, down 30.5% from 2013. This was the result of decreases in both harvested area (-19.5%) and average yield (-13.7%).

Oat production totalled 2.9 million tonnes nationally, a 25.6% decrease from 2013. This was the result of declines in harvested area, down 18.0% to 2.3 million acres, and in yield, which fell 9.2% to 83.6 bushels per acre.

[crusher]

We did our part to help lower supply, now its up to the rest of the world.

[bigzee]

At the end of the day it really doesn't matter what we say. We are just a small player in the scheme of things. Just keep putting the price of canola seed up.

[furrowtickler]

I wounder what the percentage of good milling wheat is in the stats can wheat number?
My guess is it will be 80% less than last year - ball park ish

[fjlip]

According to CGC 30%, 10,000 tonnes of wheat is crap! The trade never got the memo?
Lots of lower quality late canola in this area.
Malt barley in terminals on HOLD also, tying up space?

[charliep]

Statistics doesn't look at grade. I would look to the CGC harvest sample survey. If you look at this information, just over 50 percent of the CWRS graded 1/2. CWAD is well under 20 percent 1/2. As indicated here on 3CWRS/CWAD, mildew is the major downgrading factor so milling quality is not that bad. Protein average.

Most grain companies seem to be blending to a basic 2 specification. Not sure how business is being sorted out for quality concious customers like Japan. If I had the upper end quality in my bin, I would be hustling the market trying to find the buyers that are doing the Japanese business/willing to pay.

No conversation but I have to admit canola was on the upper end of what I expected. Changes a little on basis expectations. The market didn't seem to care. Meal/soybeans remain the everready bunny. Soyoil the dog.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks again Charlie , interesting numbers
So we had around 30 mmt of #1/2 wheat last year -2013 and this year about 15 mmt of #1/2 wheat from 2014 right ?
And probably 25 mmt of #1 from 2013 and most likely less than 10 mmt of #1 hrsw in 2014 ? Ballpark ish ?

[charliep]

Looking at CWRS wheat, Statistics Canada says we have about 17.6 MMT. That would mean about 9 MMT of 1/2 CWRS. Most of the commercial and farm carryover on July 31 would have been 1/2 (about 8 MMT but this includes all non durum wheat).

[helmsdale]

Will be amazed if the amounts for 1/2 durum hold. Producers are getting the call around here from the local elevator that the representative samples they had 'graded' by the pro's as #2 could no longer he honoured. Apparently nearly 100 of their #2cwad cars were rejected and regraded #3. Start stretching... we'll be grabbing our ankles soon

[bucket]

Is that P&H by chance?

[wmoebis]

helmsdale What does that tell you about the grading abilities of your local elevators? If they are missing grades at unload what are they missing at your bins? Up or down?
There should be a full blown inquiry into why these miss grades happened.

We need universal (certified) training and regular testing. We will be the ones paying the demurage on the ships waiting for the grain that these guys miss graded and shipped now to get the right grade into position.

[helmsdale]

Richardson. It tells me they got their peckers slapped for trying to blend a #3 or worse up and now they have to make up the diffeŕence, or it is truly just amateur hour. If i had signed a contract for #2 and was confident in the grade you could bet that every sample bag would be CGC bound.

[charliep]

Looking for thoughts. Would moving to a more quantatative system like the US where specific quality attributes are measured (eg. falling number) put us at more risk? Or should we keep our qualitative system that is mostly based on visual appearance? Our current system has worked well in that there has been a very tight relationship between visual appearance and quality. Years like this test the system.

I'll take one step further and ask about differences between how wheat is valued at the elevator and how it is bought at port position.

[bucket]

I asked because p&h are changing their tune on any new contracts.

[helmsdale]

Charlie. I recall reading a Reuters article earlier this week which highlighted dissatisfaction amongst our customers of delivered product so far this year. I doubt, at least in their minds, that quantifiable characteristics like falling numbers would improve our situation. I hauled a load of wheat (falling #~350) to Prairie Flour in Elie mb that at best would have visually graded #3.