Wheat! why our price is low.

[furrowtickler]

John , in order to get all these awsome year end prices on some inputs , guys have to sell something . You are very correct about looking around . They are trying to squeeze every farmers balls just before Christmas from both sides - undervalued grains and oilseeds and over priced inputs - it's a blatant rip off from both ends right now.
All 4 locals must have absolutely no need for hrsw at this time - hopefully that changes in the new year.

[SASKFARMER3]

furrow your starting to sound like me. Good on you for calling the guy out in Saskatoon.
Had the fert salesman out and the agrologist talking fert needs for 2015. Didn't like when I said I was done going for broke at 60 plus and 40 was my new goal. Why was first question then your not joking was the second.
I'm sick and tired of this mentality that you have to grow a crop, you just have to and pay pay pay.

[hobbyfrmr]

Sf3, volume will get a farmer through times of lower prices or poorer quality.
You have land payments, machinery payments, salaries and fixed costs. You need to maximize inputs to do your best to grow a high yeild. You need to protect your fixed cost investment .
Volume wins every time.
35 bu wheat x 6.50 = $227.50/acre.
50 bu wheat x 6.50 = $325.00/acre.
Which yeild do you prefer?

[SASKFARMER3]

Ah grasshopper if we all dropped our expectations back to 40 guess what they would run out and that's what the worlds farmers need to do. Drop production quit this game that we have to produce more to feed the world. Reality is the world doesn't give a shit if we feed them or not. Its a game every one wins except the farmer.
Fertilizer is prime example they know we have no money do to low prices so they are creating shortages etc. Ah the market works bull shit.

[Hamloc]

Lets be realistic if we increase our fertilizer then we have a heavier canopy which then requires fungicide and it needs growth regulators so it will stand. Win win for input suppliers. We produce more grain the price drops and we try to produce even more grain. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I am with you sf3.

[foragefarmer]

SKfarmer3

I wish what you are suggesting about reducing crop production world wide would work, but we as farmers can't even agree on topics here on Agrville. Never happen as there is someone somewhere prepared to pick up the slack.

As for input companies, just how many major players are there in the world? One conference call and their all on the same page.

I'm sure there are many on here who have already thought about this but, I figure I'll type it out.


John

Why sell to locals if lower bids?
Not all of us live near the border and where's the so called arbitrage that was suppose to come across the 49th? I realize marketing is a lot work and discipline but the Canadian dollar exchange rate factor being left out doesn't make sense.

[furrowtickler]

Hobby - problem is volumes of off grade costs you money long term

[jdepape]

foragefarmer:

"...where's the so called arbitrage?"

It comes from farmers - and dealers - who sell to the highest bidder. Something that isn't happening enough yet.

"... the Canadian dollar exchange rate factor being left out doesn't make sense."

Not sure what you mean but its not being "left out". On wheat, its in the basis.

[bucket]

Depape.

Explain this.

March mpls wheat is 6.27 usd.

Basis is close to zero here. But the net canadian price is less than 6.00net.

6.27 converted to cdn funds now is 7.30.

Why not call the basis minus 50 a tonne which is what it is?

Nothing like misleading the masses.

Basis is not right of you have to do another calculation after the fact.

In 2012 with a par dollar it made sense and you could look at Northern tier states prides and be within a dime. Par dollar and arbritrage was alive and well.

Maybe explaining today's basis clearly would help.

Charliep should chime in soon.

farmaholic - Any advice on today's topic?

[bucket]

And while we are talking basis they narrowing from minus 100 a tonne to minus zero/50 a tonne should say someone wants wheat.

Very few are taking delivery anytime soon locally. And as usual - trucking costs money.