Wheat Market Strategy

[charliep]

There has been a good discussion on canola technicals/strategies. Any thoughts on the wheat markets?

What I know.

MGEX what has tapped on a resistance area. Will get comments on whether will break through or move back to $6/bu (nearby).

Futures spreads have some element of carry in them.

Wheat basis levels (for what they are) have weaked over the last month when you include exchange rate in US futures prices. Montana basis has also weakened but not as much as here.

Thoughts about strategy.

[Oliver88]

One wild card that might be a factor is the collapsing Russian Ruble.
Will this increase or decrease Russian exports?

[charliep]

I note that Russia and other countries have been in the news lots before this. Former Soviet Union countries including Russia normal pattern is to sell early (cash flow) and this year the incentive to sell early is even greater given the political turmoil. You have also read all the stuff that suggest this area of the world will withdraw from the market to protect domestic consumers/food price inflation. Add in early concerns about winter kill and again, this suggests they will slow if not stop sales. All this is know so I suspect limited impact but will need to be followed.

I am not going to pretend to know what will happen 7 months. I suspect FSU countries will remain agressive sellers but it is a wild card.

[btjadenlepp]

Black Sea production is forecast to decline in 2015 compared to 2014. The political situation is well-known, but the issue of banning exports seems to have become more real this week. I was saying to someone today, it feels like we've gone from just talking about it as a potential bullish factor to adding up how many tonnes Russia has left to ship, and pencilling out where else those might come from. Probably not a bonanza for Canadian or U.S. wheat exports this year but a real fundamental reduction in supplies, in my opinion.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[BTO_farmalll]

FarmDinkallSolutions,


I See and Hear Yall are Sniping alotta Grain Merchants From The Line Companies!!!!!!!!! Whatch Yall Payin, Must Be Purdy Good!!!!!!!!!!

[Braveheart]

My strategy is still to reward rallies with sales. I'm hoping range bound wheat futures establish a new range higher and we can price small lots at resistance bounces.

It's a little tricky matching this kind of pricing into producer cars but until something news worthy breaks it's all there is.

[rockpile]

Let's see here. Commodity marketing thread, wheat marketing strategy, 5 posts. Christmas giving (tech), 47 posts. I guess we know where the priorities are, right Charlie? You must hate getting up some mornings and going to work. All this aside, this year is a quality challenge and I'm not seeing much of an upside. If you have good stuff, stay long and cash only.

[charliep]

Can't argue with your strategy. Nice rally today in futures. Not suggesting this is the top but I would be paying attention with whatever forward pricing tools are in the marketing toolbox.

[charliep]

I will comment that I am not concerned about the Christmas present thread that Parsley. We after all are friends and a community. Some of the other posts do more to raise my blood pressure but I am accountable for that reaction - no one else is. Someone had a great (actual referred to social in general) - a person doesn't have participate in every fight you are invited too. I am slow learner.