Wheat Markets Continue Their Rally

[charliep]

Wheat markets are in the Christmas spirit of giving again last night. A very nice rally in recent.

Have given up talking about MGEX but will post the KCBT and CBT wheat wheats. Interesting changes in spreads. Opportunities for any of these markets?

Posting weekly nearby to put more context to the rally/another look at technicals.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=KEH15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]KCBT[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZWH15&domain=farms&dis play_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies= Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">CBT</a>

[SASKFARMER3]

And Canadian Grain Companies continue to widen the basis. Ah Canada where were told you get $3.00 per bushel less than the world price. Enjoy your discount. Our dollar doesn't mean shit on wheat prices.

Ah farming in Canada.

[saskcanfarmer]

Guess you should of locked on a basis earlier on. We didn't hit the absolute high but we did a bunch at 60,over March for Feb delivery. Already over the highs of a few weeks ago. Time to pull the trigger and lock in the futures?

[SASKFARMER3]

I have a way better basis in that. Those who missed are getting it this morning as all companies are widening basis. When will some of you realize its us against them. Were getting screwed in Canada on Grades and Exchange. Wake up.

[hobbyfrmr]

I really don't know much about the wheat market. If you lock in a good basis for March , do you have to deliver in March on that basis even if the March futures price is poor/unappealing? Or, if it looks crappy can you pay a fee and roll your good basis forward to another futures month?

[charliep]

SK3,

You are posting from a warm place/holiday. I assume you are there because you can afford it. You also indicated you used your marketing skills to lock in a better basis.

Reminds of the joke about the difference between a Saskatchewan farmer and a 747 jet. You guys can fill in the punch. Its an old one.

[charliep]

I would have it in my head that I need to pull the trigger by later than mid February. If I were prepared to store/could postpone delivery and the market was paying carry (interest and storage), then I would look at a more distance month for my basis contract.

My own thoughts are just pull the trigger and price into this rally. If you get nervous you have acted to early/the market is going rally, look at other alternatives on a market dip. I should note you don't have to price all your inventory. Do some now and hold some into the summer if like. That is where your market plan comes including financial needs as well as market opinion.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ah Charlie not yet but real close. Why not we work hard all year its Christmas and what better than spending it with family and friends.
Family is way more important than a farm.
Yes this crop is going to take some negotiating to move with grades and yes I did my usual off the combine with not so nice basis but price is ok. Now the last was done for the Jan to April time period for delivery and basis when they dropped a while back. All HRS will be gone before seeding.
I might roll the last one in April if USA winter wheat has issues.
Merry Christmas!

[tweety]

You work barely half a year.

[SASKFARMER3]

Really half a year we work what a f$&king joke!

[farmaholic]

As noted in a previous thread I sold my wheat but it feels like I'm standing on a trap door that could open and I fall through anytime during delivery, getting hung. The gimmick is being called a "fusarium program". One in which they assign a "base grade" to the grain had it not been infected with fusarium. The risk to me is when I deliver and ACCORDING TO THEM it doesn't meet the base grade specs. Then there's always the option of using the CGC to settle the dispute but I already now
what they're calling it. And it won't be close to their assigned base grade.

I see it as a new angle to leave the door open ever so little to discount me if they WANT to. Now I know how the man on the gallows feels knowing any second that trap door could open and your hung.

Hoping for a stay of execution.

How would the Primary elevators like it if all the Producers went to a system of no contracting and each load was priced as it came up the driveway on spot prices only. If the price is what you like start hauling If they get stupid, quit.

We let them do this to us. Basis contracts. Futures first. Target prices. Then the contracts are finalized and they have a bunch of loop holes to slip through and we're shackled to a contract with little recourse if you don't like the way your being treated. Feeling a bit powerless this morning......

[bucket]

Why do say that tweety?

If I go to a dealership or grainco and discuss prices I think I am working.

Discussing it over a phone is work.

Taking the time to look up prices or news that affects farming is part of the job.

[mbdog]

The wheat markets continue to show strength. Basis is responding by eroding. The rather extreme move in basis this past fall would suggest wheat and wheat futures are undervalued...be it from supply or demand yet exposed through 2015.
Inspite of the rhetoric...and even if the market shits the bed into year end from here, I want to be long wheat. There are a few obvious technical levels where short money/sellers should stack up. Will give them due respect and may use them as potential trigger points for sales...but not today. And since the real risk resides in upside potential...I sit on the sidelines long bin and basis contracts.
I'm likely a seller 7.25-7.50 minny for rest of the month...with reownership somewhere/sometime deferred 2015. likely give it a try anyway on some...if it gets there. Don't have much Need 12$ to breakeven
I know this a Kansas/Chicago thread Charlie....saw the response you got on the minny thread. Not that I want to show my cards...but I think the take away from it is farmer's aren't stupid (not at all saying you are saying that), and they're mad at the world right now. Take it for what its worth, and keep up the good work.
Don't want to derail your thread...so back on track. There is a crop to market

[bucket]

Farmaholic

I remember growing lentils. The fall price was 6 cents. I told them they can rot in a bin for that. They graded a 3.

2 years later I sold them for a 2 at 32 cents. Don't lose hope.

I had 28 tonnes of heated flax at 12 percent heated due to late delivery. I grew more flax and turned that 28 tonnes into 13 bucks a bushel.

Grow more wheat and blend it off if they don't accept it.

I have made better money on shit grain than ever growing lots of number 1.

[crusher]

Sold some CPS this morning. The high of the marketing year, to date, for me. I din't have a previous basis. Still another 40% to sell. I think I may sell a bunch of canola, I don't see it pushing through $10/bu in the country. Maybe cover with some calls. I've got $70 basis so the net is ok.