Wheat Markets Continue Their Rally

[sawfly]

Charlie
now that we have been in the promised land for wheat marketing more than a couple of years .
and grain co.s are vigorously out bidding each other to get our grains.


it would seem fitting to have a report card on how huge the dividends
have been for the Cdn. farmer

i realize there would be some work involved.
probably a lot info would be available on the American side of things.

like pacific north west selling prices . the net returns for Montana farmers. like a 1 or 2 DNS 13 pro.

that would give a good indication of actual world price. and the % back to farmer. US and canada , board years any way.

CWB figures for the same years could be compared to PNW or world world price.

the pool returns are all there.

hard part would be finding out what
net of world price we have received since the market has opened up.

i know we are not supposed to look back . because everything is so much better and more transparent now.

i am serious , i would be really good to see what you or mr. Depage
could come up with.

[Braveheart]

Sawfly, I'm sure someone like Charlie or John would undertake a study, if, someone paid them. You know, like when the CWB used to pay Andy Schmitz, Darryl Kraft, Richard Gray, Ed Trychnewitz?, Hartley Furtan and whatever other economists for hire they could rope in the socialist corral to do a study.

[agchat]

I will glady throw in a few bucks. Could be dam dam dam interesting. ( I stutter when i get excited)

[charliep]

Sounds like a job for a consultant.

I just got done reviewing prices for ARD's weekly price review. Price range for 1/2 CWRS 13 plus protein - $264/tonne. Low end $221/tonne. 1 DNS 14 yesterday Great Falls - about $300/tonne. Big range but visible so we can have the conversation. Not sure there are many who would willing go back to an initial payment of likely in the $140 to $160/tonne range and a promised final payment of what ever.

[charliep]

I should note a 1DNS 13 (Great Falls) would be Cdn $256 ish/tonne. Feed back from the market - big protein spreads.

[Braveheart]

I'll spend my money on my own market research thanks. Phone and internet shows me prices in the area I want to sell into.

What a range. Different companies in southern MB may at times, especially recently, have higher bids than US. Currently, MN elevators are outbidding ND and southern MB grain cos.

The point is, marketing wheat with the different quality profiles wheat can have is much different than marketing just about any other crop commodity. There's no such thing as the gov'ts' fault, the market, Ritz, or the wheat growers. It's just a very complex grain to sell compared to canola, for example.

[Braveheart]

Charlie, my comments were not directed to you, just commenting on paying economists studies in general.

[charliep]

Been down that road before with studies ARD did. Not the other side is the one that wants the study. The world of dueling economists.

My sense is farmers are frustrated with pricing but not wanting to go back the old world. Interesting to hear your comparisons of N. Dakota and Minnesota prices. Manitoba has always had the most gain from better market signals. You are the closest to the premium US milling market.

[Braveheart]

Our location is fortunate, but only if we make the most of it. We constantly local cash bids against ND and western MN. No patterns emerge, just sometimes wide spreads between locations.

I don't really are about grades anymore, just what will our quality brings and what further can we negotiate. I will say though, we had samples graded by SGS to know our quality going forward. SGS grade was 3 CWRS 13.5% (mildew). Producer car unloaded in the US from that sampled bin graded 1 DNS 13.8%. Interesting.

[tweety]

Charliep said:

why should you have rights to participate in blending benefits which I am going to assume happens mostly at port, final destination US or a local processor?

Exactly! You get paid for what you have and drop down the pit. The rest is whining.