Ten (10) Questions for 2015

[errolanderson]

Here's some leading questions for agrivillers to ponder for the year ahead.

1. With global deflationary pressures expanding and
central bankers losing their influence and power,
will interest rates rise or drop?

2. With a chronically high U.S. dollar, is gold now just
another currency?

3. Is the eurozone at risk of break-up?

4. With Canada's recession deepening, will the BOC cut
their key bank lending rate below 1%?

5. What will the value of the Canadian dollar be one (1)
year from now?

6. Is the cattle board decline of late a glancing blow or
the start of an actual correction?

7. Are historic U.S. equity market gains stemming from
real growth or a flow of global investment money?

8. When will the crude oil price war subside?

9. Can North American grains rally through a deflating
global commodity complex?

10. China has taken over as the world banker. How will
this power influence their power over resources
globally?

Bonus question: How deep will the real estate drop be from central BC to Alberta to Saskatchewan be over the next year?

Realize there are many more questions. Add more . . .

[bucket]

I think the answer is that you are bearish?

[cottonpicken]

1-is this the year japan defaults and restructures

2-will the euro zone banking crisis be dealt with this year and will it be done with a new euro bond or central bank or soverign bond

3-how bad will NATO and sco relationship get

4-will the whole global bond market implode

[phoenix64]

1 interest rates begin to climb, starting with u.s.
2 gold will continue lower
3 yes
4 no, will start to increase to dampen consumer debt
5 further reduction to 75 cents
6 glancing blow
7 global investment
8 fall 2015 to early 2016
9 no
10 further bearish sentiment
bonus.......30% average with smaller centres in southeast sask up to 50%

[errolanderson]

Cotton,

1. Strong maybe to yes
2. Interesting analogy ... Yes
3. Putin will no longer be in western leader group photos
4. No because the financial market implications are dreadful, but you may be damn right.

[vvalk]

Agreed bucket. To be honest Errol why subscribe to your service when everything you write about is always pessimistic. I know what your posts willmsay before i read them. How can you have 10 issues with everyone being negative? Not just a little negative but world economy crashing negative. Should we be sold 100% for as many years out as we can? Why sell anything if cash is in such trouble. Are we going to a barter economy?
What do you think about 5% increase in GDP in the USA before the drop in oil. Seems to me that there are some pretty good prices for different farm commodities right now and going higher.

[errolanderson]

vvalk .... You call it negative, I call it risk management.

My apologies for offending you, but unfortunately global markets don't care about our feelings.

Errol

[blackpowder]

All good questions. Questions that place our mind on what ifs. Predictions stray into the fools zone. Did any one predict 2 planes taking down WTC?

[mbdog]

#9...yes. What's stopping it if no?

[cottonpicken]

You mean 2 planes taking down 3 buildings ya that was weird.

V-if you don't think governments monetizing their debts is not a cause for concern you have been sitting at the back of the class for to long and need to come up front and open your ears and eyes.

[vvalk]

Not offended at all. Just making my observation. Cotton. my guess is things have a way of turning out and this won't be any different. I think anyone over the last 100 years who is doom and gloom or waiting for the meltdown have done far worse financially then those who play whatever the current "game" ( lack of a better term). If what you say is true then savers will get hit the worst whether it's cash or equities. Realistate will always stand the test of time. Farmland is only one component of this

[seabass]

Totally agree cotten but vvalk has a point. If u took errols way of looking at things u might as well crawl in your bear cave a go back to sleep.
I totally believe there will be a correction like errol says but u can not always think that way being in the business we are in. Would be Ritchie bros time.

[malleefarmer]

I will stick up for errol here didn't he say in possibly feb/march of 2014 wheat and canola prices were attractive and it was prudent to have a risk management plan in place, he wasn't being bearish just cautious again cotton and errol are stating to likely scenarios, not beating there chests just observing, I for one learn a lot off agriville and often do due dillengce after stuff is posted on here and go and check it out for myself and make ration al decisions.
And its not as nasty as some other sites when bulls and bears are constantly at it, kinda big picture stuff here. The other big question is its gonna be 45 here possibly new years will the pub run out of takeaway beer...

[cottonpicken]

IMO Errol and everyone and i are just trying to see how the dominoes fall in the future which is very very hard.

One of the thing i know for sure is that the top analysts and hedge fund guys are very very scared.

[farmaholic]

The question I've asked in the past and got no response to is what has anyone done on a personal/business level to protect their "ass"ets?