Canola

[tweety]

Markets were never created for farmers to be a part of or be involved in in any way, let alone make money at.

[Hopperbin]

Some reading

Hedge funds at their most bullish on ags in nearly six months09:40 UK, 31st Dec 2014, by Agrimoney.comHedge funds lifted their bullish positioning on agricultural commodities to the highest in nearly six months, as increased bets on rising grain and cotton prices more than outweighed the biggest selldown in cattle in 15 months. Managed money, a proxy for speculators, lifted its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to sugar, by more than 30,000 contracts in the week to December 23, analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator shows.Speculators' net longs in grains and oilseeds, Dec 23, (change on week)Chicago corn: 244,422, ( 8,252)Chicago soymeal: 50,348, ( 7,732)Chicago soybeans: 38,708, ( 2,454)Kansas wheat: 25,642, ( 5,203)Chicago wheat: 22,293, ( 6,999)Chicago soyoil: 20,691, ( 1,873)Sources: Agrimoney.com, CFTCThe increase took the overall net long - the extent to which long bets, which profit when values rise, exceed short holdings, which benefit when prices fall – above 550,000 contracts for the first time since the start of July.And it defied a slump of more than 15,000 contracts in the net long in Chicago live cattle futures and options - the biggest drop since September last year.Live cattle futures during the week touched a three-month low of 155.10 cents a pound, for the best-traded February contract, on ideas of profit-taking fuelled by talk that beef retailers had filled seasonal needs.The CFTC data indeed highlighted the extent of hedge fund profit-taking on bets on rising prices, with their gross long alone in live cattle futures - which remain close to November's record high of 171.975 cents a pound - declining by nearly 15,700 lots in the week, to 87,464 contracts.More bullish on grainsHedge funds also cut their gross long on feeder cattle significantly, to less than 9,000 contracts for the first time in 15 months.Speculators' net longs in New York softs, Dec 23, (change on week)Cocoa: 44,379, ( 6,484)Arabica coffee: 29,337, (-2,944)Cotton: 8,252, ( 9,414)Raw sugar: -57,838 ( 4,337)Sources: Agrimoney.com, CFTCHowever, such bearish positioning was more than matched by increased bets on rising grain and cotton prices, with the net long in Chicago wheat rising to a seven-month high above 22,000 lots.Wheat futures were supported by concerns over a squeeze on Russian exports, which saw prices hit a six-month high of $6.77 a bushel, and culminated last week in an announcement of export tariffs from February 1.The net long in Chicago corn, meanwhile, hit a seven-month high of 244,422 contracts, as prices touched a five-month top, helped by the better sentiment on wheat, but also by increased optimism over demand for US supplies, in feed, export and ethanol channels.Conversely, in New York-traded cotton, a return to a net long position, thanks to the biggest bullish shift in hedge fund positioning of 2014, was driven by profit-taking on short positions, largely on improved technical signs after the 60-cents-a-pound mark provided lasting support to futures.'Liability for the bulls'However, the rise in net long positions underlined ideas that grains may struggle, without significant fundamental challenges, such as weather threats, to manage an early-2015 rally.Speculators' net longs in Chicago livestock, Dec 23, (change on week)Live cattle: 76,777, (-15,364)Lean hogs: 41,635, (-3,247)Feeder cattle: 6,855, (-565)Sources: Agrimoney.com, CFTC"Many are hoping for the corn rally to continue as it did in the spring of 2014. This time things are very, very different however," one US broker said."Last year, the market misjudged the size of the 2013 corn crop and that caused a large rally back above $5.00 a bushel."But the 2014 price revival was spurred by a "massive hedge fund position change" from net short of 100,000 lots in the run-up to Christmas to a net long of more than 230,000 contracts four months later."This year their powder is not so dry, however, and to see them add to a long position already exceeding the equivalent of 1.2bn bushels of corn will have to come with some serious fundamental reasons. "This position is now a liability for the bulls."

[bgmb]

guys need to quit contracting so gar ahead and sell the spot market.

[tweety]

Agreed! Throw some risk and indecision back in to the market.

[cottonpicken]

For ward selling is shorting the market.

[charliep]

Already highlighted but I want to emphasize the inverse in the futures market right through to November 2015. That creates some re-ownership strategies if you want to look at them. I think soybeans and canola a have rough ride ahead but that story has to told. I suspect everyone here wants to stay long canola in the bin. If you are right, you deposit more money in bank. If wrong, less.