Predictions for farming in 2015!

[jake550]

I hope people predicting dry weather are accurate! 4 inches of rain during the growing season if it came at the right time would be perfect.

[SASKFARMER3]

Jake that's all I want its simple one after seeding and one at beginning of June and one at beginning July then Exhibition week in Regina and that's it repeat next year.

[freewheat]

No one knows what will happen. No one ever has, no one ever will.

Those who have been LUCKY, will do fine. Those who have had bad luck for a decade will be in trouble.

All I know, is I made all the best decisions for my farm the last decade. I am what I would call a "good, high producing farmer". But no matter what you do, if you can not seed because it is too wet, during a high price cycle, you would recognize choices you make mean nothing.

Weather luck, and forefathers luck. That IMO is what separates those with a more negative outlook, from those with a more positive outlook.

It is tough to have a positive outlook, when no matter what you do, you struggle to make a living.

But if you were well set up in the first place, or had the fortune of being able to seed every year for the last decade, and not lost millions of dollars to excessive rain, your attitude is going to be more positive, obviously.

My honest opinion? Most will laugh, but I feel if we do get into a couple of poor production years, land prices will crash hard, as farmers realize this is Saskatchewan, not Iowa.

But it is up to the weather.

I think it may well be dryer. I hope to heck so. If so, the former wet areas may well get a chance to prosper, regardless of our decision making abilities....

[grrrr]

I predict good crops, great weather for everyone, and SF3 will learn to spell and use punctuation properly. Oh, wait! I was dreaming!

[Hamloc]

I am not much for predictions but ai have a few thoughts. It is fairly obvious the bull run in commodities is over. I agree margins in canola will be much smaller than in the past few years. The big seed and fertilizer companies will extract more than their share. It is amazing how they have forced us to buy fertilizer storage and to pay for products 9 months out to control costs. How many businesses pay for product that long before we need it. Anyway got off track. Short and sweet. Margins will return to more historical norms. Machinery dealerships will be much less profitable. Livestock farms will make some money after many years of low returns. Both Alberta and federal governments will go to the polls both returning to power. Oil will be back to 70 dollars a barrel by year end. Cheers!

[Oliver88]

What the heck, since the expert opinion was $94/barrel oil to end 2014 I'll give it a shot.

Canola, HRS acres down.
Canola $11 off combine, #2, 12.5 HRS is $6
Barley, oats minimal change.
$5.50 and $3.25, December 2015.
Durum, Flax, canary seed acres up.
Durum and flax prices tank in fall.
Land prices will back off 5% in 2015.
Interest rates will rise 0.5% in fourth quarter.
Rent will stay the same.
Fertilizer will be 30% higher in May than December 2014. (Same as most years.)
The same farmers who have a "shiny paint" addiction will upgrade equipment at outrageous prices. (They will whine about high prices)
Our dollar will end year at $.92
Oil will end year at $92
Diesel will be $.85 in May and .$75 by June.
Putin will drop a few strategic bombs in Saudi Arabia to bring the price of oil up and to send a message.
Weather will be a repeat of 2003, Eastern Sask will have a good year with 5" of rain.
Sask Party, Alberta PC, Federal Conservatives win elections.
Riders win Grey Cup in Winnipeg.

[crusher]

I get the impression some agrivillers have a sense of entitlement. Live within your means and enjoy the beauty around you. Be blessed with what you have been given. If your own situation gets you down, try focusing on helping others less fortunate. Happy trails!

[SASKFARMER3]

Grrrrr that's funny.

[bgmb]

I predict some like braveheart Will need to get their rose colored glasses tinted a little redder than last year to keep everything looking good.

[foragefarmer]

bgmb

You better watch what you say to Braveheart, or else he'll recite his Good Vibration Happy Satisfied Universe Prayer to you, to drive out all your negativity.

Because, if you had poor rail service last fall and winter, grain companies didn't honor your contracts on time, basis was through the roof, and the weather was adverse, your not a victim. You brought it upon yourself.

[bgmb]

I think Braveheart is close to the USA boarder so he just hauls into the states.

[Braveheart]

Well Forage, if you signed a weak basis contract guess what? You brought it on yourself. No one else signed as your proxy. You signed.

My prediction re the gulf widening between the "victims" vs the rest of ag, has nothing to do with weather or railroads. It has to do with attitude.

Very simply, when you say it's the railway, or, greedy grain cos, or, Ritz's system, etc., you've just handed control of your business over. You've surrendered. When it's always someone else's fault you're saying, "I can't do anything without you allowing me to". In essence they do whatever to you, so, you're a victim.

There are prices and delivery opportunities all around, but maybe just not down the street. Yes I've hauled to the US, both wheat and canola. But anyone can.

We've just landed some producer cars in the US Midwest. Anyone, anywhere on the Prairies can do that, and it is preferable (to me) than trucking to the US.

Don't fall in the gulf Forage, it might be a bottomless pit.

[freewheat]

But Braveheart, pretend that in 2007 you seeded ZERO acres. In 2006, 10% of your land base, 2010 0% again. Those were the bad years in the decade, with a few marginally better, and NONE above long term average yields, due to excessive rain, during one of the brightest commodity price periods in history.

And then tell me the weather has nothing to do with one's prospectus.

I did not bring this on myself... It is simply circumstances. There are circumstances outside our best laid plans. Just sayin' is all...

Had I been having my long term average yields that had occurred prior to the snotty wet years, during the commodity boom, I can say for a fact, I would have become a wealthy young man. But as it was, luck was not on my side, and nothing I could have done, could have made it better.

[SASKFARMER3]

Good point free wheat.
Brave quit generalizing. Man get out and see the shit show excess water does. Christ one week this summer water created a new river running north of Leross all the way to Little Quill. Gee those darn farmers ditching. No that came because of 8 plus inches of rain over a weekend on ground that is so saturated its unbelievable.
But yea we created this problem. God some of you just don't get it.
The best years some of you had were missed by some of us. Then last winters shit show with great contracts at very good prices we have to wait for a year to get our money, because the railways took grain from Alberta instead of Sask and south.
Look Listen and count your blessings you weren't dealt the shit show we have seen for the past 8 years with water.
Count your blessings.

[Braveheart]

Freewheat, I am talking about something other than weather. Weather is out of your control. How you react to it isn't.

You've survived and are still there so your contingency plans must be solid. I remember your food self sufficiency, switching to sheep, etc.

You are wanting to grow for hog barns, leaving grain cos and railroads on the sidelines.

You sound like someone who despite being dealt a poor hand with weather, has responded with thrift and ingenuity. You do not fit the profile of the "victims" of "the system".