March Canola

[ado089]

What comes first $440 or 460? The market seems to like this 448-452 range. We're pretty over bought but the bulls have been pushing all fall for no good reason. Thoughts?

[bigzee]

Have a -15 basis locked in for 25k bu, when it hits 456 I'm selling atleast half. This will be first sale of canola so if 10 is my low for the yr it's not too bad.
It may take some patience to get there though.

[farming101]

Canola acted more like bean oil today than beans. Will need lots of help to make 460. May stay range bound till report day, then who knows?
Factors: US dollar, $10 canola is opening bin doors, some fresh export business supporting prices?

[macdon02]

Jan report on the 12th is gonna be tough to get through. Think id lighten up the long in the bin position to some degree. 09 crop year is still fresh in my mind

[charliep]

I'll add to the curiousity side happens with contract spreads. Can the canola inverse carry on into the spring? Will it be a process where May is drawn to March when the latter contract gets closer to delivery and people start rolling positions?

This is an interesting market going forward. Having a futures account is not for everyone but having this tool in the toolbox opens opportunities strickly cash marketers won't get.

[caseman]

got a $3.00 under basis on 800 tonne canola. using the july futures puts it at $10 today.

I have march delivery period and has to be priced by june 15.

should I take the $10 and run or wait ?????

[charliep]

Are you wanting to pull the trigger on everything or are you willing to split the 800 tonnes - sell some/allow some to ride with the market?

My comment is I would want to do something at $10/bu. I won't put a percentage on it (don't know you/your business needs).

Perhaps another way of looking at the decision. What is your reward - what do you see for upside which is the start of the thread. How far down could this thing drop? Does the potential benefit outweigh the pain? If you are willing to replace with futures/calls, can sell this rally, buy the next dip?

[charliep]

I was about to be quoted that grain marketing is as much an art as a science. I got uncomfortable and had pulled - sounded too much like making marketing voodoo magic. I still think is true. The science is all the financial needs of a farming business and mechanics of marketing grain. The art is the human part of decision making.

Off topic.

[macdon02]

Comes down to risk management Caseman, if report is bearish can you live with it? Or is it better to let a portion go knowing the risk is off on that portion? Thing is nobody knows till its the past. At $10 are you making $? If yes let some go or all. With the swings we are having since 08, there is too much risk imo in swinging for the fence. Ask yourself if you can live with $9, I know $11 is better but if you do nothing and report is bearish beans we go to $9 right skippy. If half gone at $10 and bullish you only get 10.50 assuming you dump at 11. Have to ask yourself what is your target? If you dont know the price you are holding for nobody can answer. I know one thing, by reading here, there wasnt alot of money made on canola. Which means the farmer cant be sitting on it, when these bills come due in Feb will guys be letting it go for whatever they can get at the time? You got a good basis give yourself credit, but the basis is only one factor in price. There's gonna be pressure on futures likely 1-2 days before report as traders square the books to go no position infront of report, likely selling. Not sure what your basis was in Sept but on March futures you are up $50 from the lows, likely gained 17ish on basis. Thats not bad. Im bearish but could be wrong. Oh and you are long next years crop unless you have it sold, making you very bullish having two crops unsold at the very least.

[macdon02]

We could go sideways from report, there's always three possibilities.

[charliep]

A dead thread. I note that CBT soyoil has some life today in a sea of red. The origin post questions are still relevant.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLH15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]canola nearby weekly[/URL]

[caseman]

still watching it go up. mite pull the trigger at the 10.20 range. need .25 cents to cover my trucking.

mite dump it all then buy it back on paper....

[furrowtickler]

Same here caseman, sitting , waiting, watching.