From DTN:
"DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Tuesday, January 6, 2015 10:31 AM CDT
By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter
OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the last week of December 2014 show urea's move to the low side is continuing. The nitrogen fertilizer slipped 5% compared to a month earlier and had an average price of $461 per ton. It's the third week in a row that retail prices of urea showed significant movement.
Six of the eight major fertilizers had slightly lower prices compared to a month earlier while the remaining two were up just marginally.
In addition to urea, DAP, potash, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32 were all also lower in price compared to the previous month, but none were down significantly. DAP had an average price of $564/ton, potash $485/ton, anhydrous $706/ton, UAN28 $322/ton and UAN32 $353/ton.
The remaining two fertilizers were higher in price compared to a month earlier, but again these moves were fairly small. MAP had an average price of $593/ton and 10-34-0 $575/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.50/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.57/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.
Rabobank published its Fertilizer Quarterly Q4 2014 report, titled "Cloudy, With a Chance of Spring Demand," at the end of December. Looking ahead to Q1 2015, the outlook for global fertilizer pricing looks to be uncertain with fertilizer supply appearing to outweigh demand. Spring demand, however, could prevent fertilizer prices from slipping significantly.
More urea supply is expected to come onto the global fertilizer market, according to the report. Urea capacity is set to increase in Q1 2015 thanks to new capacity in Algeria and Egypt and the projected boost in urea availability from a change in the Chinese export tariff.
"The supply and demand balance for urea is expected to loosen in Q1 2015," the report states. "This would result in a bearish outlook for urea at the beginning of 2015."
In the U.S., a late harvest and poor weather limited field work and less nitrogen fertilizer than normal has been applied. At the end of November 2014, 40% to 50% of the typical fall anhydrous applications in the Midwest had not occurred yet.
Rabobank reports that normal seasonal increases in demand for phosphates from spring demand in the Northern Hemisphere could be limited by any changes to the tax policy in China, which is a downside price risk. China is expected to announce its tax policy in the coming weeks, and this could have a dampening effect on DAP prices.
The report added that a significant decrease in phosphate prices might lead some buyers to perhaps lock in prices.
Pressure on crop margins in the U.S. and Europe is likely to drive spring potash application lower by as much as 5%, according to the report. Rabobank stated there is little upside for potash prices in Q1 2015. Relatively high inventories and downward price pressure on grains and oilseeds put a lid on further price increases.
Rabobank reported significant fertilizer demand destruction is unlikely in the U.S. because of two record crops in a row. These large crops will have removed a significant amount of nutrients from the soil, according to U.S. fertilizer producers.
"Overall we expect a relative reduction in fertilizer demand due to carry-over stocks, lower corn acres and more prudent application," the report said. "But spring will still provide standard seasonal pattern demand increases ahead of spring plantings, with potential additional price support from logistical bottlenecks."
Half of the eight major fertilizers are now double digits higher in price compared to December 2013, all while commodity prices are significantly lower from a year ago. DAP, MAP, 10-34-0 and anhydrous are all now 14% higher. In addition, urea, potash and UAN28 are all 2% higher compared to last year.
One nutrient is still lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. UAN32 is 2% less expensive from a year previous.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32."
The above sounds right to me. Year end price increases are a feeble attempt to get farmers to panic buy.
"DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Tuesday, January 6, 2015 10:31 AM CDT
By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter
OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the last week of December 2014 show urea's move to the low side is continuing. The nitrogen fertilizer slipped 5% compared to a month earlier and had an average price of $461 per ton. It's the third week in a row that retail prices of urea showed significant movement.
Six of the eight major fertilizers had slightly lower prices compared to a month earlier while the remaining two were up just marginally.
In addition to urea, DAP, potash, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32 were all also lower in price compared to the previous month, but none were down significantly. DAP had an average price of $564/ton, potash $485/ton, anhydrous $706/ton, UAN28 $322/ton and UAN32 $353/ton.
The remaining two fertilizers were higher in price compared to a month earlier, but again these moves were fairly small. MAP had an average price of $593/ton and 10-34-0 $575/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.50/lb.N, anhydrous $0.43/lb.N, UAN28 $0.57/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.
Rabobank published its Fertilizer Quarterly Q4 2014 report, titled "Cloudy, With a Chance of Spring Demand," at the end of December. Looking ahead to Q1 2015, the outlook for global fertilizer pricing looks to be uncertain with fertilizer supply appearing to outweigh demand. Spring demand, however, could prevent fertilizer prices from slipping significantly.
More urea supply is expected to come onto the global fertilizer market, according to the report. Urea capacity is set to increase in Q1 2015 thanks to new capacity in Algeria and Egypt and the projected boost in urea availability from a change in the Chinese export tariff.
"The supply and demand balance for urea is expected to loosen in Q1 2015," the report states. "This would result in a bearish outlook for urea at the beginning of 2015."
In the U.S., a late harvest and poor weather limited field work and less nitrogen fertilizer than normal has been applied. At the end of November 2014, 40% to 50% of the typical fall anhydrous applications in the Midwest had not occurred yet.
Rabobank reports that normal seasonal increases in demand for phosphates from spring demand in the Northern Hemisphere could be limited by any changes to the tax policy in China, which is a downside price risk. China is expected to announce its tax policy in the coming weeks, and this could have a dampening effect on DAP prices.
The report added that a significant decrease in phosphate prices might lead some buyers to perhaps lock in prices.
Pressure on crop margins in the U.S. and Europe is likely to drive spring potash application lower by as much as 5%, according to the report. Rabobank stated there is little upside for potash prices in Q1 2015. Relatively high inventories and downward price pressure on grains and oilseeds put a lid on further price increases.
Rabobank reported significant fertilizer demand destruction is unlikely in the U.S. because of two record crops in a row. These large crops will have removed a significant amount of nutrients from the soil, according to U.S. fertilizer producers.
"Overall we expect a relative reduction in fertilizer demand due to carry-over stocks, lower corn acres and more prudent application," the report said. "But spring will still provide standard seasonal pattern demand increases ahead of spring plantings, with potential additional price support from logistical bottlenecks."
Half of the eight major fertilizers are now double digits higher in price compared to December 2013, all while commodity prices are significantly lower from a year ago. DAP, MAP, 10-34-0 and anhydrous are all now 14% higher. In addition, urea, potash and UAN28 are all 2% higher compared to last year.
One nutrient is still lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. UAN32 is 2% less expensive from a year previous.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32."
The above sounds right to me. Year end price increases are a feeble attempt to get farmers to panic buy.
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