Canola Marketing

[charliep]

The canola marketing fell off the bottom of the page so I am post a new thread. At least for me, pretty interesting action right now. I will note changes in old/new crop spreads. Others have asked is a sustained push to $460 is possible on the March. Will the May/July keep up?

[ado089]

It looks like farmer selling is putting a lid on price at $452. We're trading in step with bean oil, not beans. I think we're going to trade down to close the inversion but Monday is likely to prove me wrong. Something big is being set up one way or the other.

[crusher]

I was looking at the $10 inverse between Mar and Jul a couple of days ago and was thinking that can't be sustainable, I better buy that. Never did. Its now $3.70. That would have been easy money. Good on ado for getting the timing right on his basis roll.

[charliep]

Below is this weeks COPA weekly canola and soybean futures board crush margin. I follow them for trends.

[URL="http://copaonline.net/"]weekly board crush[/URL]

[farmaholic]

A 50% margin drop in the last 6 months. A lot less profits at these levels, a signal?

If there is any relevence to the chart based on how they come up with the numbers? But a guide, none-the-less.

[ado089]

I priced a small basis contract I had from fall today at just over $10 net. Squared away the stupid $425 Mar calls I had sold during harvest by buying some Feb 440 calls. Worst case on those damn things is up $5 now. I still get to play if the bottom falls out next week. Held on to 10 short futures at $440. I think I can sleep for a couple of nights now.

[farmaholic]

Have to admit, I don't fully understand.
Hard to play when I don't know the rules.
ado, how would you say you've averaged
over the last few years?
Ahead
Even
Behind
?

[Hopperbin]

No more jan delivery anywhere.

[ado089]

Farmaholic, last year I shit the bed and averaged just over $9 at the bin. The year before I was probably pretty average. Sold near the top the two previous. I have an aversion to locking anything in that's not already in the bin so I've missed a few opportunities. I'm still learning the details of trading options. As I go I've started to make some rules to follow to minimize the hurt. This winter I'm trying to make $3-4K a month speculating as a source of off farm income. I've got a way to go but it's coming together and it keeps my mind sharp over the winter. I've developed a new fondness for short dated (<2 weeks before expiry) covered calls, especially if you can pick up the futures position a few dollar under the strike, it's quick low risk money.

[Hopperbin]

No more jan delivery anywhere.

[ado089]

Farmaholic, last year I shit the bed and averaged just over $9 at the bin. The year before I was probably pretty average. Sold near the top the two previous. I have an aversion to locking anything in that's not already in the bin so I've missed a few opportunities. I'm still learning the details of trading options. As I go I've started to make some rules to follow to minimize the hurt. This winter I'm trying to make $3-4K a month speculating as a source of off farm income. I've got a way to go but it's coming together and it keeps my mind sharp over the winter. I've developed a new fondness for short dated (<2 weeks before expiry) covered calls, especially if you can pick up the futures position a few dollar under the strike, it's quick low risk money.

[Hopperbin]

No more jan delivery anywhere.

[crusher]

Ado,

What are the commissions like on your short term trades? Don't they gobble up most of the premium? Who do you use?

[caseman]

Charlie, I got nervous and sold the 800 tonne of canola today at 10.05. march delivery.
if price dips next week maybe I will buy it all back on paper.

anyone know a good broker??

[ado089]

Crusher, depending on how many contracts I'm dealing with commissions are right around $1-1.20/mt by the time I'm in and out. I should probably find something cheaper but they've been good at teaching me as we go.