Canola Marketing

[Braveheart]

Caseman, I'd be more nervous about buying back 800 tonnes on paper. Now, of course I don't know your yields or economics, but I think you did ok at $10.03. I know what you're trying to do but it would suck to give money back.

[farmaholic]

Braveheart, don't discourage him from gambling at the "Futures & Options Casino" ;-)

[MBgrower]

Good luck trying to out guess the market. Should use it to protect upside or downside only in my opinion.

[iceman]

Ado089 is figuring out his AOA (angle of attack) and the ground crew is chirping him about it. Hilarious!!!!

Just keep hitting those Richardson and etc Canola Specials you jokers!

Over & Out

[farmaholic]

Iceman.
In my opinion you've lost control as soon as you-
Sign a basis first or futures first contract-you're committed to one company and they know the grain is coming up the drive way.

OR you sell the physical and think you're going to participate in an active market. That much less the buyers need to come to the market for. What would happen if everyone did it. Would there be a need for
a futures market?

Grain pricing orders- how many tonnes at what price? And there YOU sit at the table waiting for them to come and accept your offer. Someone called it a "free" call option.

If we only sold on the spot market WITH NO
STRINGS ATTACHED, maybe the market would be more functional. But with all the sales gimmicks put in front of us and used by us, but IMO in their favor, I say they really don't have to use the market.

The most power you will ever have is if the physical is in your possession.

In the words of the late Herbert (Alfred) Bryan; " I may be wrong but".....

Would like to hear what that old codger would have to say these days, a controversial fellow he was.

Did you know him bucket?

[Hopperbin]

Farmaholic there has been a lot of money made and lost with basis contracts lately. Had my jan month priced out at 10.45 just lately so will be happy with that delivery. I dont understand the shit basis lately. It sbould not be minus.

[Hopperbin]

Other than that I well did miss other pricing opportunities. I will live the rest of my life selling physical yet speculators help the futures work. So I will sit back now and just listen.

[ado089]

Putting a gpo in is telling the market your asking price. That's how markets work ask and bid. If you're putting in a gpo it suggests you're alright taking that price. I have one in for $12 right now for every bushel in the bins. I know it's not likely to hit but it's telling them what I want to get paid.

[charliep]

Perhaps the most important Grain Pricing Order that farm managers have themselves. That is a personal note either in your mind or written down or preferably shared with a partner that will hold you accountable. Something called marketing discipline.

I note caseih has made a decision. At this point, hard to know whether right or wrong in terms of getting a best price. I won't comment for him but for me, I could live with it - made on the best information of the day and a fit with their overall business needs.

I note the original theme was are there market signals that are telling you the market is starting to peak. What is the market telling you about when to deliver - this month, three months, summer.

Perhaps a last comment is the grain elevator is not your customer. They are simply part of a supply chain that gets your product to a customer. If you don't like the margin they are taking or the service they provide, you have to seek out something different or get more involved in the supply chain. I will note that people who have direct marketed or taken on roles in the supply chain to get closer to their customer have a different attitude/approach than someone is simply deals with a local elevator.

[charliep]

Is $10/bu canola all that bad a price? If you were an advisor working to develop a business/financial plan for a young farmer, what canola price would you use in their budgets/cash flow analysis for the loan? Not asking about the politics of canola but the mechanics of making a decision.

[charliep]

sorry should be baseman. You are likely more aggressive than I would have been but I would comment a good decision. We'll find out for real starting tomorrow. Nice to have stuff sold and down the road money in the bank. Likely a weirdo but bills paid/money in the bank relaxes me and does a lot to look after the shoulda/coulda/woulda of marketing decisions.

[charliep]

rotten auto spell. caseman.