USDA report

[Oilking]

I see all the grains are down this morning. What does this mean for us in western Canada for the next couple months based on this report? Anyone ?

[charliep]

Both posted the same time. I don't see anything too surprising in the report. Limited to no impact on western Canadian prices based on this report. Other factors have center stage.

[fjlip]

US wheat acreage BELOW the LOW trade guess, but stocks are higher than a year ago after a very poor dry frozen crop in some of the plains. US crops NEVER fail in a large enough area to affect supply. Almost magical, at least the numbers are? So sell the fact for now, then buy low, make money both ways.

[Oilking]

Soybeans down 30 cents right now. If it drops below 10 and doesn't hold, it might not be pretty. Not that I'm chart reader but isn't major support around 9.25 after. Likely won't be good for canola

[mcdon]

Nothing positive for beans, lookout below. Watch for fund long liquidation in canola. I don't want to be long anything.

[Braveheart]

I agree with the "buy the rumour, sell the fact" comments. Markets will rebound tomorrow. I don't think markets can afford to be bearish heading into spring. Plus there is solid demand, especially for oilseeds.

My biggest surprise is that crude prices have in past years been an oilseed fundamental. Yet, despite plummeting crude prices oilseed markets have actually risen.

[Kodiak]

I agree Braveheart. I could have written the same comments! However, perhaps what could be said is that crude oil prices held up relatively well when grain prices collapsed. Now crude has caught up!

What worries me more than the agricultural commodity fundamentals themselves, are outside factors. The world wants to use the big crops we have been getting. A hiccup in supply in any of the grains will cause a supply price shock that may surprise us. We have seen how high prices can go when supply is threatened. Witness durum. With carryout levels not growing as fast as total production and use, there is optimism for prices based on their own fundamental.
IMO, what is a cause for concern is a currency based wreck. Is the appreciating $US going to cause further deflation? Or is deflation the cause of the dollar rally? Chicken and egg.... Or will governments and central banks, whose biggest fear is deflation, print like there is no tomorrow to re-inflate? There is an endless supply of ink and virtual money to be minted if they choose. But who wants to be Zimbabwe? And then there is the Russia/Putin/oil/sanction story which has yet to play out.....

[Braveheart]

I've been watching economies in various countries teeter with debt crises, currency issues, etc. but nothing happens in the end. Is there some global monetary conspiracy at foot we don't know about? There have been several issues in the US and abroad that should have taken us over the brink and yet didn't.

[cottonpicken]

We did go over the cliff we just haven't landed yet.

The debt has been monetized.

[Kodiak]

Explain Cotton.... "the debt has been monetized". By definition, that's what debt is. The (monetized) amount you need to repay to your creditor for whatever it was you bought... whether it be real goods, services, bonds, mortgages, or frivolous spending....
What am I missing?