Sell Canada ?

[cottonpicken]

Oil and other commodities are screwed for god knows how long.

Housing is a bug looking for a windshield.

The banks will get hammered.

Our current account is negative.

Our fx reserves are at 74 billion,for comparison for people that don't follow this stuff Russia has 5x more.

We are one of the dummies that sold our gold at rock bottom prices in the nineties,LOTS of countries hold gold reserves for those that have no clue what gold is.

Our dollar is selling off,any stock or bond you own is denominated in dollars,imports more expensive and exports but good for the people who export.

A massively leveraged population,you should see the graph compared to our neighbor to the south.

Half of our debt is hiding in the provincial governments half federal#hope the world doesn't find that out,can our central bank buy provincial bonds for there balance sheet?

A socialist government waiting in the wings#will he spend less than his old man#cant see it

-underfunded pension schemes

-underfunded liabilities

-banks tier 1,10-15%?,not to bad

-finance minster having a nervous breakdown on live tv after his last budget,2nd last budget introduced the bank bailout scheme#heh folks nothing to see here let's talk about gay rights#its what's important

Using to many hash tags in thread,check

[ajl]

For as many problems that the US has, we have more. If oil stays between 50-75 US for the next 5 years as I expect it will bring a world of hurt on in Canada. One of our biggest problems is equalization. Ontario or Quebec can't go broke without dragging the rest of us down. In the US, Illinois can go broke without touching Texas' money. US:1, Canada:0

[grassfarmer]

I think Alberta has a bigger problem than Canada has with oil being down. If oil and gas really only accounts for @12% of CDN GDP, even with support industries figured in still only 14-16% of GDP.

I've heard lots about these equalization payments but never seen any figures - could anyone point me to the numbers so I can compare them to oil and gas revenue for example. How do they work anyway? with oil being down AB is hit but Ontario should be way better of through the manufacturing sector - does that not change these equalization payments?

[fjlip]

Perhaps Ontario will be sending Ab equalization!

[helmsdale]

Grass. Google "canada equalization formula" and check the wiki page. Contrary to popular belief there are no direct transfers from one provinces treasury to another. Its all funded out of general revenue at the federal level and constitutionally mandated. Albertas loss of $ through decreased royalty and income tax takes will just drop the national avg.

[Klause]

In the 2013-2014 year, the following provinces will receive equalization payments:[4]

Quebec ($7.833 billion)
Ontario ($3.169 billion)
Manitoba ($1.792 billion)
New Brunswick ($1.513 billion)
Nova Scotia ($1.458 billion)
Prince Edward Island ($340 million)

The following provinces will not qualify for equalization payments in 2013-2014:[4]

Alberta
Saskatchewan
Newfoundland and Labrador
British Columbia



[URL="http://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/eqp-eng.asp"] More info [/URL]


12% of our GDP? Where's that number coming from?


Oil and Gas is a lot more than 700 drilling rigs, and the services around them.

Everyone is affected...

Lots of the parts you find in the oil patch are made in Ontario... when AB/SK/NL/MB/BC stop buying... ouch.

[grrrr]

It makes you wonder how stupid Dumbass Mulcair is. A couple of years ago he was blaming us in the west for eastern Canada's woes caused by a high dollar. Now, grains are down, potash is down, oil is down, and the dollar is down. Is eastern Canada any better off? He better hope we can make our equalization payments on time.

[helmsdale]

Drove through Kindersley today... 4 or 5 new or expanded hotels, new shops, massive frac sand distribution center, oil loading loop, etc etc. Recent capital outlays are expansive! And thats only one of the many towns that bet on what was supposed to be a 'sure thing'. The dominoes are in place all its going to take is the first one to wobble and the whole thing blows up.

CO3, a major frac sand transport company has notified its lease operators to start shopping for new jobs. They might be the first but surely wont be the last as exploration comes to a complete standstill in the coming weeks. Rationalization is about to create a new reality in the patch.

[grassfarmer]

Thanks for the info.

Klause, sorry I overstated:

"The oil and gas sector, with the addition of related industries and indirect activity, accounts for about 11 per cent of Canada’s GDP."

"Jobs in the oil and gas extraction sector (including the support activities for mining and petroleum and coal manufacturing sectors) accounted for about 1.1 per cent of total Canadian payrolls in 2013, said RBC"

Figures are from this article but similar figures are widely quoted:
http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/lower-oil-prices-could-boost-other-parts-of-canadian-economy

I know it isn't what we perceive living in the midst of the oil patch but nationally it's really not that big a deal.

[grower99]

We need new leadership at the federal conservative party. His degree in economics is need of an upgrade. Anyone can run a country or province with $100 plus oil!

[ajl]

Ontario will not be contributing to equalization payment ever again. Headline today was that MAGNA got 1200 new Federally subsidized auto parts jobs in Guelph. The Auto industry is more subsidized than farming. All the economically viable manufacturing jobs have left for right to work states like Michigan (Believe it or not it is now a right to work state), Indiana, or further south. The upside of the lower oil prices is that Alberta will contribute less to equalization but it still will be a contributor.

[ALLFARMER]

Just had a picker operator quit today. Second guy in 2 weeks.. why guys quiting? Too much work, barely any time off. Have to hire other trucks on a near daily basis to cover the work. Likely pays around $60/hr winch truck $38/hr Thats with a fresh class 1 in your hand. Last young guy blew the motor in a truck hmmm foot to the floor right..3000rpm??

[tweety]

But..... If you're a farmer, its a glorious time.

All our inputs lower, exports are priced higher.

Its about time things come back to normal.

[Klause]

Grassfarmer I don't know where they cane up with that....


O/g workers make almost double the average canadian wage. On top of that... 1% of 15 million or so workforce would mean only 150,000 work in the o/g sector.


That would be direct jobs in extraction.


Construction, trucking, surveying, upgrading are all not counted in those figures.


O/g, farming, mining, forestry are base industries for Canada. Everything else is dependent on them.

[fjlip]

O/G 1.1% , farmers 2%, mining ?%, that's why WE DON'T show up on Gov radars.
95% are not in these industries and they all vote.