What else are you going to grow from Canola Buyer

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny yesterday at the Crop Production show in Saskatoon I had a chance to talk to lots of Buyers from different crushing plants. Same song from each.
Canola at 9.31 for a fall price will have lots and lots of acreage what else are you going to grow.
Ah peas at 8, just wait India is going to have a small crop. Lentils pay well. Durum any one who can grow decent and has a price locked in. Flax at 11.75 for fall isn't as high but is decent compared to Canola price, Oats at 2.90 is decent Malt at $5 is low but hey its close. Feed wheat yield vs quality. Yield wins.
So what are the two crops not to grow.
HRS and Canola both pay you shit all and cost you the most to grow.
Seed is way to high and they know it just hopping we fall for the trap one more year.
So to the What else are you going to grow you have to plant Canola in your rotation group. I think your going to be in for a surprise.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes prices are down on other commodities but we are not getting paid a fair price for Canola or HRS in Canada.
Sorry a dollar at 84cents should give us way more than their offering.

[SASKFARMER3]

The Canadian dollar tumbled below the 84-cent mark today amid ever-sinking oil prices. And based on the latest forecasts, the Canadian currency is headed lower still, says the Globe and Mail.
“We see the core driver for CAD in the near-term as developments with oil prices and expect CAD to reach fresh lows this week,” said senior currency strategist Camilla Sutton of Bank of Nova Scotia, referring to the currency by its symbol. “We expect CAD to weaken further and for near-term traders are biased to be short CAD,” she added.
A new projection Monday from Nomura Securities predicts the loonie will sink to about 78.75 cents by the third quarter of the year, before picking up slightly to close out 2015.

So will farmers see any benefit from a low dollar next fall. My answer is NO!

[bigzee]

Talked to one canola company, seed sales are down 30% from last year. The funny thing he agreed seed price is out to lunch. With .25 red lentil contracts out there, who wants to grow a crop that's going to cost more to grow than the return will be.

[SASKFARMER3]

Bigzee Im getting the same feedback sales are down and down hard. Guys are sitting on fence or have made plans already. Yes lentil with a .25 cent contract gives guys way more than canola and no expensive seed.
The workers at the seed booths understand that but the higher ups have no clue.
When you price your self out of the market farmers vote with their drills. Sorry some upper managers might get pink slips come this time next year.
They screwed up this crop and should pay for their F$%Kups.

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny the other conclusion I have come up with is Farmers will make more money signing contracts for producer cars, Do malt with malt companies, do lentils and peas with processors, Flax with processors, oats with mills etc. Skip the parasites the Grain companies and you will profit in 2015. But if you deal with the Big four they will dominate and you will falter.
I think we finally can see who profited big time last year with ridiculous basis levels and Blame the railways mentality.

[bucket]

Sf3

Those managers will get hired by the cereal seed guys as soon as they start the same scheme for seed sales for wheat.

That is why there was such a push for wheat seed to follow the canola scheme. These guys needed something else to **** up and the government took it hook line and sinker.

[bigzee]

This seed rep lives beside a crushing plant, and used to work for an elevator. He told me from his experience an elevator is the worst place to be selling any product. They are bending everyone backwards and you can figure it out from there. I don't live by a crushing plant so my options are limited. I haven't sold and canola yet so I'm not in any pain yet. LOL

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree with the line companies screwing guys.
Crushers should step up to the plate but they are getting guys at the 9 so they don't care.
But the more people I talk to the more it starts to show one thing. Have a contract for feed wheat with pig barn, or ethanol plant or who ever get paid more less rules and easy to do. Dealing with line companies more and more are saying grading bullshit and then they dump into a #2 or #3 bin and call it feed.

[farmaholic]

Why would the Crushers pay more than they have to? That was my complaint last year when we had no export market because of rail logistics, they didn't have to compete. AND don't forget who owns some of them...Cargill, Richardson, Louis Dreyfus, ADM!!!! My god guys--vertical integration...

Charlie posted the COPA charts the other day. The "manufactured" margin is half what it was in June/July. As I said though a guide none-the-less...

Happy show touring guys.

[SASKFARMER3]

Peas prime example was last year line companies buy peas price nose dives throughout all harvest even if their is a shortage do to poor crops. Farmers that could hold on are finally getting a fair price now. But in fall if a proper reporting system would have shown piss poor peas then the price would have been higher then.
Lots of problems in Canada Lots of problems.

[bucket]

Sf3

Just had that conversation with someone at statscan. Until they become a somewhat forward thinking organization using after harvest data to confirm - we are ****ed.

All the agrologists out there and no one could make a statement that the pea crop was pooched. They could have said it in June.

[furrowtickler]

The big 4 got their wish , tie up as many big producers as possible from soup to their nuts and they basicaly got free grain. Last years poor rail movement was the icing on the cake cause they finaly have their boot on the throats of enough producers to supply their basic grain movement without having to actualy go buy a single kernel of grain , and charge the shit out them on inputs b/c they have no other option if they wish to move grain.
I would think the big 4 made far more money per acre than most of the actual producers , and they will fight to keep it that way until as was said more farmers break free from their strangle hold and get some independence back in their own hands.
Farmers did this to themselves in the almighty quest for massive expansion and the desperate need for more and constant credit
It will sort itself out but not before many go upside down in the quest for more dirt.
I could be wrong but this set has been in the works for years and 2014 was the straw that broke the camels back . IMO , this is why there was not a peep from any line company last year about poor rail service - they sat quietly in the shadows knowing full well outcome, making fortunes in basis levels and grade manipulation.
Everyone needs to make a buck if Ag is going to succeed but ......

[binthere]

for a good read try merchants of grain by dan morgan. the boys who went to great lengths for freedom of grain marketing including going to jail prevailed. now are you going to do something more to help yourselves or keep bending over for the status quo.

[GALAXIE500]

I would also read "Canada's Great Grain Robbery", and Jailhouse Justice " by Dan baron. Both books are excellent reading. You can get them on amazon.ca