Canola Marketing

[charliep]

Canola marketing thread has disappeared so will start again. Promise to stay on topic.

I find today interesting in that canola is one crop that stayed positive at the close in a sea of red. That is old crop. New crop different. Perhaps an indication of export sales or something else. Could be a one day wonder but worth following.

The magic number is $10/bu so I suspect the market will stay close under grain companies/crushers get comfortable with their farmer delivery contracts versus sales. Will see if I am right or wrong.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ah grasshopper a few days ago Soy was up very nice canola was flat. rest was up.
Canola is a dead duck crop. Costs way to much to grow and acreage will drop.
Explain why with a 84 or less cent dollar we are not seeing a nice price mid point sask. 10 is a shit price.

[Wheatking]

If new crop doesn't get some legs soon, I think I might be returning some seed. I like to pre price some new crop about this time of year, but no way I'm pricing at these levels for a loss. I can pencil in a profit on oats, barley, canary seed and flax, with less stress and inputs. Good luck to CCC in hitting their production targets for the year.

[charliep]

Meant the discussion to be about old crop in the bin.

Having said, canola is crop with a customer base of 16 million tonnes and quite realistically with Camrose coming on line closer to 18 million tonnes today.

Perhaps more to the thread topic, will the old/new crop inverse stay in place? If canola acres decrease, will canola buyers get more aggressive on basis.

I will stick my neck out and suggest that new crop canola will give you a sniff at $10/bu sometime over the winter/early spring. Could be wrong but ....

[farmaholic]

Isn't growing crops supposed to be a public service?

I only have about 20% of my '13 crop priced. I guess I'll wait for the next $10.00 "gift".

March $450.30/t, $10.21/bu. with zero basis.

Charlie, what is the in-store Vancouver asking price?

Spot pricing seems non-existant. They must be covered. ;-P

Any Crop "Propaganda" Show specials?

[charliep]

ICE futures Canada price Track Vancouver is $490/tonne or $40 over if you prefer.

[URL="https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/1"]Vancouver cash canola[/URL]

[charliep]

Just to make sure that isn't a typing mistake but you still selling crop produced in 2013?

[Braveheart]

We covered our first quarter needs on the last rally. Into crusher was $12 over March, Jan delivery.

Patience will pay off. We'll incrementally reward rallies with sales (mantra) and wait for the next round of good basis prices.

I expect basis may strengthen here in MB as we get closer to seaway opening. It might hopefully bring some fresh demand.

On old crop futures, I just don't see downside. Old crop numbers are well known. South American weather is good. Demand for canola seems steady, perhaps growing.

[farmaholic]

LOL, where does the time go? I lost a year. Sorry I meant '14. And thanks for the link.

With "only" 40 over and 75 crush margin. We can't be getting hooped too badly. 75 is better than 150!!!

[charliep]

Off my own topic but if you were developing a financial plan to build a case for a land purchase, what canola price would you use in your budgets?

[SASKFARMER3]

But that 490 is not in USA dollars so then it works out to 563 or am I wrong! Charlie?

[SASKFARMER3]

Who in his right mind would base a land purchase on Canola. One year doesn't make the other 9 payments.

[mcdon]

Fund buying in old crop canola today, funds extending their length. Recent export sales of new crop, that is why open interest beginning to build in Jan-May '16. Funds have gone from net longs in soybeans to net short in 2 days.

[charliep]

Prices are in Canadian dollars. Canola won't make up 100 % of rotation/plan but likely will be 20 to 40 %. What other crop provides the range of delivery opportunities including a processor in your backyard in most areas? The range of pricing contracts?

[SASKFARMER3]

Oats, feed wheat to barns or ethanol, barley to local malt plant. Lentils to Regina etc.
sorry but hey screwed up a great crop. Nice to know its Canadian dollars based in Vancouver. So Canada is the lowest price is the law!