Canola Marketing

[freewheat]

There are almost no canola delivery opportunities at the moment. Sask is correct, canola is not what it once was. And true about the barns. Feed wheat and barley, heck they are paying 6.70 for feed peas. When canola is under ten at these insane input costs, several other crops have as good a net return, and now with wicked delivery challenges, I would rather grow ABC, than canola. Canola is becoming the way wheat used to be; a rotation crop.

It is not cinderella any longer. It is just another crop. An expensive one to grow at that.

Lots of options, Charlie!

[Hamloc]

Charlie the positives of canola are established and growing markets(Camrose plant),and a positive short term outlook. The negatives of canola are overpriced seed, too many farmers pushing rotation creating disease and pest problems(resistant flea beetles in peace country), high input crop increasing risk. We also have the prospect of large south American soy crop as well as large US crop. Do the negatives outweigh positives time will tell.

[BTO_farmalll]

payu2takemywheat&canlowa,

Welcome To The Future, Where The Hell Ya Been Man!!!!!!!!!

[farming101]

I wonder how accurate the ICE Vancouver "Cash Price" is. StatCan seems to indicate in their Merchandise Trade Database that canola is being exported at values somewhat higher that the ICE price.
<a title="CIMT" href="http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cimt-cicm/topNCountryCommodities-marchandises?countryId=999&tradeType=1&usa State=0&topNDefault=10&freq=6&commodit yName=Low erucic acid **** or colza seeds%2C whether or not broken&lang=eng&refYr=2014§ionId=2&mo nthStr=November&chapterId=12&arrayId=98000 00§ionLabel=II - Vegetable products&provId=1&refMonth=11&commodit yId=120510">CIMT</a>

For anyone following the Canola spreads...
<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/farming101/Mar15-Jul15spreadJan132015_zpsc20c0c97.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo Mar15-Jul15spreadJan132015_zpsc20c0c97.jpg"/></a>

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

Thanks for trying to herd cats!

New crop canola can be priced for cash needs in fall... beats wheat but not peas. Did $7.50 for yellows last week off combine.

Another interesting year ahead!

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom your right peas do better but wheat I said is a dud. Canola is a dud other crops less risk more return the seed companies screwed up canola and now we all don't win. Seed costs way to high to grow this crop. Old tec reinvented.

[farming101]

StatsCan link no good.

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/farming101/Aug-Nov15StatscanCanolaexports_zpsa492b87f.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo Aug-Nov15StatscanCanolaexports_zpsa492b87f.jpg"/></a>

[grower99]

Watch for cereal seed prices to go way up too when Upov'91 is implemented. Over time the same restrictions on wheat as on canola.

[SASKFARMER3]

Were so screwed with that! But some experts say don't worry it will help our farm. Yea canola helped one group Bayer and Monsanto. They took a Saskatchewan crop and screwed it up all for huge profits till growers couldn't cover the costs.
Were at that time in history. Wheat Oats and Barley will be next just watch.

[fjlip]

No worries, RITZ to the rescue....

http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=79c01792d64340d37dcb06069&id=7ee3dfed22&e=9fa69 fdab4
The Canadian canola industry generates $19.3 billion annual in economic activity and nearly a quarter of a million jobs. This funding initiative will continue to help the industry build markets and keep them open through:
-Developing a deep understanding of social, economic and political drivers of the target geographies
-Engaging experts to develop strong partnerships with key influencers
-Educating the end-user in the positive attributes of canola oil and meal
-Contributing and coordinating with partners on market access barriers

bla, bla, bla, but how are you going to make dumb farmers grow it?

[charliep]

ICE Canola and CBT soyoil are positive again today in a sea of red. With regards to unsold canola (still in the bin unpriced):

1) What is your market outlook?

2) What is your strategy/outcome in your canola game plan?

3) What are the best marketing tools that best fit your marketing strategy.

[mcdon]

Charlie,
1)prices to work lower
2)sell
3)sell nov futures against inventory, backspread when inverse appreciates.

[charliep]

mcdon,

Thanks for ideas. Could you help me out with the process around the back spread.

[mcdon]

I think the market can move lower so I want at least some protection. If I am going to short futures I am going to choose the month with the most downside. I will choose the weakest month given what I think the spreads will do. I anticipate the July/Nov to continue to move to a larger inverse given the relatively tight supplies. If I am correct the Nov will move lower relative to cash prices. When I am ready to pull trigger on cash sales I can opt to remove short Nov position. That is called back spreading. Used by commercials from the beginning of time. Have to have an educated opinion on spreads.

[mcdon]

Today's price action provides a snapshot of above strategy. March/nov spread widening by another$3, by putting shorts in Nov I can participate in upside move in cash should it continue, if market moves lower nov should move lower relative to March.