Wheat Marketing

[charliep]

Any thoughts on wheat marketing strategy. Broke support of $6/bu on MGEX. Basis levels ugly.

Montana basis has followed similar pattern to western Canada although still a wide premium our elevator bids.

Great Falls prices USD $6 to $6.50/bu for 1 DNS 14 (equivalent to our 1/2 CWRS 13.5). Basis levels in the 5 to 55 cent over MGEX March. Basis level back in December were up to $1.10/bu over.

[bgmb]

Do nothing for awhile

[Hamloc]

About 80% sold did ok on some sold to soon on others. Sitting on the fence now wheat markets show little promise.

[Kodiak]

Got a feeling exporters and end users, remembering what happened to them last year, booked more transportation than they actually needed this year. Perhaps exporters curtailed sales. Combine this with somewhat better performance by the RR's, and buyers needs are covered. This will change. Might take awhile, but the pendulum never stays in the same place. I am going to ignore wheat for awhile. Buyers don't need me, so I won't burden them with what they don't want.

[Kodiak]

I might add, that at the present time it doesn't look to me like there is any risk premium in these markets. That too can change. Plus, it has been my observation that many moons ago the grains would go through the "February Blahs". I think that happens earlier and earlier now. It now happens in January and the risk premium starts to be added back in Feb. Just my opinion.
I've learned from past experiences that panicking is painful. Patience (combined with good cash flow management) is rewarded.

[fjlip]

Wait for Apr if you can, the high for the year 90% of the time. Check last May 1st, 2014. Any issues with US wheat will move the markets. Could be spot premiums to fill rail cars.

[furrowtickler]

Thinking the same fj, we did 20% on the Mid Dec run - Gona wait now .
P&H was actualy buying for a few days there

[westernvicki]

..now if your wheat only yielded about 70 bushels and was a number one high protein one could break even....

[Hopalong]

Sask crop planning guide says we are not too far away from break even at prices currently available.
Suspect that higher prices would drive land costs higher until we are back to break even.

[furrowtickler]

Well at 65 ish , and if we can get $6.50 for the rest of it , it will pay 100 times better than peas at zero from root rot
Not sure who needs over $400 / ac to break even on wheat but I guess every area is different
Vicky , when are green peas going to get back to $11-12 where they should be ?

[fjlip]

We all calculate numbers that are fair to our costs and expectations. $235 all costs for wheat here, $4.52/ bu break even in 2014. Above that is return to labor and investment, = $64/ acre on sales to date.

[furrowtickler]

Very similar here with those numbers