Where is the price of canola headed?

[Oilking]

Canola was up pretty good day today but came down a bit at the end with March futures up about 3 bucks a tonne.Canadian dollar supporting canola really well right now. Just concerned with soyoil and beans falling that canola will follow suit and panic selling will start. What are others thinking?

[ado089]

Yesterday was the big day today was entirely driven by currency. IMO the bull market in canola has been more or less dead for two weeks. The sinking loonie is the only thing proving it up until we see some logistics based bids in spring and summer. Cash bids still suck and the inversion in the market makes it hard to read.

[Hopperbin]

I believe this to be supportive

Brazilian farmers have forward contracted 40% of their anticipated 2014/15 soybean production compared to 50% last year at this time. Soybean farmers in Brazil have recently slowed down their selling pace due to a decline in soybean prices at the Chicago Board of Trade and the recent strengthening of the Brazilian currency.Brazilian farmers are hoping for improved domestic prices due to either a reduction in the Brazilian soybean crop caused by the recent dry weather or premiums paid by buyers to entice farmers to let go of more of their crop.Last week soybean prices for May delivery declined 5.5% at the Port of Paranagua and 3.7% at the Port of Rio Grande with prices ending the week at R$ 60.50 and R$ 61.50 per sack of 60 kilograms respectively. Prior to the recent declines, the prices at the ports were as high as R$ 70.00 per sack.It is possible that the dryer than normal weather during January has trimmed the yields of the early maturing soybeans. Some regions of central and eastern Brazil have gone three weeks with any rainfall and farmers are worried about the impact of the dry weather on the yield potential of the early maturing soybeans.The early 2014/15 soybean harvest has started in Brazil with 4% of the crop harvested in Mato Grosso and approximately 1% harvested in Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana. Early yield reports vary widely in the range of 30 to 60 bu/ac. The soybeans being harvested now were planted during the second half of September and they were impacted by the dry weather during October. Soybean yields are expected to improve as the harvest progresses to soybeans that were planted after the rains returned to normal in early November.Sales are expected to remain slow until the harvest pace accelerates during the second half of February and into March.

Copyright Soybean and Corn Advisor, Inc. 2009-2013

[Hopperbin]

On the down side acres are up Taking from pasture and sugar cane. On the upside its been dry Hurting early beans. Harvest is just starting. Both these reports out just today.

During the last five years, the soybean acreage in Mato Grosso do Sul has increased 30% as ranchers and sugarcane producers switched some of their traditional acreage to more soybean production. Farmers in the state are expected to plant an all-time record high of 2.3 million hectares of soybeans in 2014/15.Soybean prices were very good during most of that time which encouraged farmers to make the switch. The price of soybeans has since declined, but farmers and ranchers continue to increase their soybean acreage.The conversion of pastureland has been the primary way in which soybean acreage has increased in the state in recent years. Brazilian scientists have demonstrated that cattle production and row crop production can both be increased by utilizing a long term rotation between row crops and pastures. It is much easier and quicker converting pastures to row crops than it is to purchase and clear new land. Additionally, stricter environment laws have made it much more difficult to clear new land for additional row crop production.In addition to the price, another reason for the increased enthusiasm for soybeans has been improved technologies used in soybean production. No-till planting now accounts for 95% of the soybean production in the state which allows for the soybeans to be planted directly into the existing pastures. No-till planting also helps to maintain the fertility of the soil by reducing erosion and increasing the water holding capacity of the soil.The switching of sugarcane to soybeans has been a secondary way in which soybean acreage has increased. Sugarcane producers in the state have been disappointed in recent years with adverse weather impacting their sugarcane production and low prices for sugar and ethanol. The prospects for the sugar sector remain clouded and farmers are expected to continue switching some of their sugarcane to soybeans whenever the sugarcane fields need to be renovated.

Copyright Soybean and Corn Advisor, Inc. 2009-2013

[furrowtickler]

Sideways till they start cleaning out bins and road bans hit

[Partners]

Richardson's hit $10.00 today for March, delivered to Wadena....right or wrong we sold some...

[Hopperbin]

Appears basis has widenned. Higher futures dont seem to be translating to higher prices. Basis contracts made earlier seem to be cashing in. Had a jan basis cash out at 10.42 near the last tradi g day. Delivery any time now. I think they can pay higher but buyers only paying what they have to. Look at the strength showing up in flax. Actually flax is a shit show. New crop prices are 2bucks a bushel all over the place.

[Hopperbin]

Louise dreyfus in yorkton is at 10.20 march offerred yorkton. Can probably get 10.50 on a target.