jdpape or someone well versed on futures

[Hopperbin]

We have a situation here. Although I am priced out I am concerned how things are working. In the past I priced basis and was able to price futures up to the mid of the futures month. As I try to clean out bins buyers are not even offering march basis. Or even the chance to put an offer on paper. Is their s how things are supposed to work? Should it not be illegal? How does this shit effect trying to incorporate a hrsw futures or durum. I like to use canola futures yet it has some dissappointments seems our buyers may not be following the rules.

[Hopperbin]

Soy close months have not been acting the same as canola Months. Why is that?

[Hopperbin]

Am thinking we could have a very good operating grain exchange if buyers and sellers are forced to use it. Not really sure how the canola contract is still in business.

[charliep]

I'll let John answer.

To help me though, why would you want to lock in the March basis (weak) in an inverse market when basis for deferred months is doing the heavy lifting to put carry back into the cash price?

[Hopperbin]

I cashed out my canola on a 0 jan basis with 10, 000 bushels to deliver yet. So I am just shocked at the farmers committed tons and selling pressure at the moment. I thought basis would stay near 0

[Hopperbin]

To better respond to charlie. Need the money now. Banker dont want to hear income is coming later. I guess it is as is with all others trying to price now.

[Hopperbin]

Yet charlie I am sure you should have insite to the origional post. Come on you can do it. :-) something is wrong.

[Hopperbin]

Should this be an election topic

[farmaholic]

Don't be a conspiracy theorist Hopper. You've been reading too many of my posts?

[charliep]

Just teasing.

To your point, isn't it important for everyone to have thought through financial including cash and have contracts/delivery commitments in place to generate revenue when needed? Requires shopping/preparation. I know I will get beat on because not contracts are called for on time.

To quote my when he wanted to use the truck in the morning after I had driven it the night before - You know the truck runs as well off the top half of the fuel tank as it does the bottom. Plan your fillups so you are never in danger of running out fuel.

If you know when your are due, have a good idea what you are to sell including price.

[Hopperbin]

Yes yes yes yes and more yeses depending on number of questions. But that does not answer why or if futures is not working.

[bucket]

Still doesn't answer why farmers are waiting months after the original contract delivery either.

Some want to paint a rosy picture and offer advice to farmers like they haven't thought things through. Most farms are million dollar operations. I really hate being told I am a buffoon for signing 7 months early and delivering 3 months late.

[Hopperbin]

Bucket at the moment I have 15, 000 canola priced undelivered it works both ways.

[Hopperbin]

I do think compensation should be offered

[jdepape]

This demands a longer answer but currently I'm pressed for time.
Some factors at play right now:

1. Elevators that can deliver against canola futures are VERY reluctant to. A new interpretation of the rules states that the elevator has to supply the railcars to the long taking delivery. Since railcar allocations are rationed as it is, they really don't want to give up cars to a third party. End results - very little if any deliveries.

2. No deliveries leads to inverses, Inverses are supposed to signal tight stocks; but now that's not working. Stocks in the system are ample - deliveries have been more than what is needed to keep the pipeline flowing. Hovering around - and hitting - $10/bu really helped there.

3. Since stocks are good (almost the highest they've been all year), basis will be pressured. Put that together with the fact that the March is getting pushed out of whack with the rest of the world and basis really suffers.

Most buyers are now basing their prices of the May because it is more relevant to the market than the March.

Are they ripping you off? No. the cash prices you are seeing are "market-relevant". But because of the problems with the futures contract right now, both the spreads and the basis are misleading.

Bottom line - the situation sucks and needs to be addressed asap. (Which the exchange is doing.)