wheat buddy is out.

[bucket]

Yup and they will say there is no money in oil. The local elevator will say there is no money in grain handling and yet these guys never need public money.

They are making a killing and the government won't tax them better yet they will create a loophole at the next tea.

[jdepape]

bucket -

It sounds like you're suggesting someone is contradicting themselves saying "graincos were not making excess profit because farmers were not selling" while also saying "farmers have kept selling".

And it feels like you're pointing at me.

If so - don't take what I say out of context.

People like Richard Gray said graincos were gouging and pointed to the widest export spread all year to calculate it. Problem was, little was being bought at those prices - some graincos had "no bid".

The reason prices got so bad was indeed because farmers kept selling - or offering.

So, even though you're trying to make the case that you can't have both situations, you definitely can.

[bucket]

And that us why no farmer in the states feels bad about taking government money because they are doing the same thing in the states but refilling the farmers account through program payments that will help correct the problem.

In Canada we get to listen to guys that justify the basis calculations to politicians.

To be fair that may or may not be you. But I think even you want a better system since it would be easier to make money.

[jdepape]

"But I think even you want a better system since it would be easier to make money."

Ouch!

I want a better system because it would be more sustainable, fair, efficient, and if we ever get there, it will give me considerable pride and gratitude that I had even a small part in getting there.

And YOU will be able to make more money.

Hell, a dysfunctional market would be great for me. The CWB single desk was the mother of all dysfunctional markets and I had a great time with that one!

[bucket]

If a dysfunctional market worked for you, you wouldn't even be posting here.

You would be having drinks in Mexico.

[BTO_farmalll]

Look Son,

a Retard!!!!!!!!


Using Dape's Phony Fckin Math, Yous Can Clearly See He Avoided The Question on Where The Money is Going!!!!!!

$7.16 Converted to Cdn - $1.60 Cdn = $5.56 Cdn

$5.76 USD - $0.20 Cdn = $5.56 Cdn


This is So Fckin Phony it Boggles My Mind!!!!!! Dape' Tells Us The Fx is in The Basis, Yes You Idiot We Can See That!!!!!!!!! Fer Years, n' Years, n' Years, n' Years We Were Told The Lower The Cdn $, The Better it Would Be fer Our Prices!!!!!!!! Where The Fck is Our xChange Then!!!!!! Can Someone Please Explain This Phony Fcking Math Being Used To Convert The xChange Rate!!!!!! This is Happening in All Grains, I Should Be Selling $4 Oats of da Combine This Fall, Would Seed The Whole F'n Ranch Down To em'!!!!!! Oh Well, The Great Grain Robbery Continues Unabated!!!!!!!!

[bucket]

Let's all agree the basis off mpls futures is a minus 1.60 a bushel cdn.


And the basis from the export market where the majority of grain goes by railcar either TB or vancouver is currently about a minus 3.50 a bushel cdn .

We good on that? Anyone that doesn't und er stand the real numbers is just blowing smoke.

And in reality it's been that way for a long long time.

[wmoebis]

When you deliver directly to the USA are you paid in US funds or Canadian?

If paid in Canadian do they make adjustment for difference in dollar?

[jdepape]

I always said I wouldn't bother responding to a posting by BTO but I guess anything can change....

BTO says:"Can Someone Please Explain This Phony Fcking Math Being Used To Convert The xChange Rate!!!!!!

I tried.

I see one mistake in BTO's math.
He says $5.76 USD - $0.20 Cdn = $5.56 Cdn

The mistake is the basis is <b>NOT</b> Cdn. It's not USD either. It's a conversion.

How do you think this stuff works? Take the export price in USD, Convert it to Cdn, then deduct all known costs to get it back to a farm price?

It doesn't work that way.

Let's say export price is $9.00/bu in USD
Converted to Cdn at 0.81 = 11.11
Known costs are freight etc = 1.50 (this includes what people believe the handling charge should be)

This should work back to SK with a bid of 9.61/bu

Now that you have a price out there, and the wheat starts flowing in, you need to address the question, is it coming in fast enough, too fat, or not fast enough? If it comes in faster than you need it, building up stocks, you will want to lower your price to slow things down.

But what about the risk of demurrage, extra shifting costs, contract cancellation charges, etc (like we had last year). If you don't protect yourself from these potential problems in your price, you could lose money.

After last year, what do you think the chances are that graincos will get hit with more this year? I can tell you, they believe the chances are high and they are pricing accordingly.

Think about it - If someone came to you and said I will sell you wheat for $5.00/bu, who in their right mind would say - "forget that! I'll pay you $6.00!

So now with all the costs in play - <b>and all the risks and uncertainty - and willing and eager sellers</b> you have a price - and it's much worse than what the "costs" would suggest.

Do graincos make more money when this happens? Of course.

And to your question of "where's the FX?" It's there - it's not hidden - take another look.

In times of greater uncertainty - and when farms just keep selling - "costs" in the price (like freight and FX) are overwhelmed with risk factors and plain vanilla supply vs demand.

Perhaps the biggest price factor right now is farmer selling.

[charliep]

Any comments on variability in basis. I will note in Alberta anyway, local elevator bids can have up to a 50 cent range for same wheat in the same generalized area. This to me is a signal about who (grain company) wants the wheat to work logistics on a sale. Prices are relatively available via text and direct contact. It is then a matter for farmers to set targets and shop the market including forward bids.

I also note your comments over time about farmers ability to separate storage, delivery commitment and pricing. The most powerful tool a farmer in their tool box if they know how to use it.

[BTO_farmalll]

Dape',

You Really Believe That Drivel You Just Spewed, Lmfao!!!!!!! In Reality Yes it Does Work Like That!!!!!! If This is Such a Big Deal fer The Grain Buyin Cronies, And Risks, And Uncertainties, And On, And On, And On!!!!! Then Why Not Cut The Bullsh!t and Pay Us in USD Then!!!!!! I Will use Majic Myself and Convert USD 2 CDN, Thank You Very Much!!!!!!!!!

[jdepape]

You want to sell in USD?
Fine. Here's what you're looking at:
#1 CWRS 13.5 - somewhere in SK

$5.80/bu CAD

OR

$4.70/bu USD

If you want a USD basis, that would be 106 under March Mpls.

You can figure out the FX rate....

[BTO_farmalll]

No, No, No, No Dape', Thats Not The Way Reality Works in The Real World!!!!!!!! Only in Comedia Where The Lowest Price is The Law!!!!!!!! And Dape', Where Yous Getting This Phony Fckin Basis #'S at????? You Guys Pull em' Outta yer A$$ er What!!!!!!!!!

[BTO_farmalll]

To Me This is Reality - $5.76 US Convert = $7.16 CDN Minus Say $0.20 Basis is Plenty Margin fer These Crooks = $6.96 Net CDN - Now Thats Reality!!!!!! Freight Can Come Outta The Port Price, Dey Aint Hosing Me fer That Too!!!!!!

Dape',

Curious To Know Why When These Crooks Buy Grain, They Use Majic To Convert The xChange, BUT When Selling Us Fertilizer its Straight Forward Math - US Price (Based on NOLA) x FX = CDN Price Charged to Dumb Farmer

Hmmmmmmmmmm???????????

[jdepape]

Mar futures = $5.76 USD
Cash price = $4.70 USD
Diff (basis) = 1.06 USD under

Or do it like bucket wants to:

Ftrs at 5.76 USD = 7.11 CAD
Cash price = $5.80 CAD
Basis = 1.31 CAD under

Or do it the way the trade does it:
Ftrs at 5.76 USD
Cash price = $5.80 CAD
Basis = 0.04 over (FX included)

No matter which way you do it, the cash price is the same.