wheat buddy is out.

[jdepape]

Basis is simply the difference between futures and cash.

Period.

It is NOT a cost.
Graincos do not buy your grain at "whatever under" and sell it for futures price.

Basis is a price (or a component of price, if you prefer).

On wheat in western Canada, you can look at it a number of ways:

1. Convert the futures to CAD, then deduct the CAD cash price.
Basis in CAD.

2. Convert the CAD cash price to US, and deduct from futures (in USD). Basis in USD.

3. Take the Cash price in CAD and deduct futures (in USD).
Basis is neither USD or CAD - it holds the FX conversion.

Each of them is right (so I won't say your 100 under is the "true" basis). I have been stressing that the way the graincos do it (#3) shouldn't be vilified. It works and it in no way hides anything from you. It is a superior way to manage a hedge book.

For what it's worth, I track basis using #2 and #3.

[bucket]

And no one thought to ensure a functioning market prior to implementation?

So you agree the government botched this and left farmers hang out to dry?

Pretty simplistic to say farmers shouldn't sell instead of mentioning the handling system is ****ed.

Talking about the costs for the graincos like demmurage is bullshit. I have signed contracts early and then waited for them to call it in. It's not my problem if in 8 months they can't schedule the system to work. And penalizing farmers going forward because of theirs or the railways incompetence is equally unacceptable.

Why were they signing contracts if they could not fulfill them?

And maybe explain how ag canada can have an average export price of 330 per tonne off the west coast and basically have no bid on the prairies?

[bucket]

All the graincos use US futures. There is no real canadian prices. It all starts in usd.

Nothing has to be this complicated unless you are building a rocket with people aboard.

[jdepape]

And no one thought to ensure a functioning market prior to implementation?
<b>Can't answer for the powers that be and what they were thinking but I'm sure no one predicted a record crop and a rail meltdown in the same year. In my view, most current problems stem from that. Including the canola futures problem. NOTE: the first year after the end of the single desk, everything seems to be working quite well. Basis was good in both wheat and canola. Grain was moving. No complaints.</b>

So you agree the government botched this and left farmers hang out to dry?
<b> Can't go so far as that. They didn't do things I thought should have been done, but I can give them credit for others.</b>

Pretty simplistic to say farmers shouldn't sell instead of mentioning the handling system is ****ed.
<b>Putting words in my mouth? A good deal of the reason the market remains dysfunctional is how farmers sell.</b>

Talking about the costs for the graincos like demmurage is bullshit. I have signed contracts early and then waited for them to call it in. It's not my problem if in 8 months they can't schedule the system to work. And penalizing farmers going forward because of theirs or the railways incompetence is equally unacceptable.
<b>All that relates to the elephant in the room - the railroads and how they are regulated. Our next big hurdle.</b>

Why were they signing contracts if they could not fulfill them?
<b> They have no way of knowing whether they can fulfill them. Get this - they are selling grain six months out. Making commitments in January for June shipment. But they can only book railcars out two weeks. Now that's ****ed. </b>

And maybe explain how ag canada can have an average export price of 330 per tonne off the west coast and basically have no bid on the prairies?
<b>I'm not going to try to explain something Ag Canada is doing. Not my call. But a grainco with grain plugging up his system could be making sales (or quoting) - even though he's not yet in a position to buy more. </b>

[bucket]

The system is far from plugged. Look at the stats.

Explain why railways and graincos don't plan further out? And why no one is squawking to have the change made?

[bucket]

I do agree about ordering railcars comment.

I was talking to a grainco rep about this and my jaw dropped when he told me when I signed a contract they don't order the car for the delivery period.

Why hasn't that changed.

As far as the record crop well they have had since 1997 to do something about the issue of grain movement.

And I will reiterate this point again exports from Canada are not getting smaller. Why wait to build the appropriate infrastructure?

[jdepape]

The only reason why Graincos can't order cars far in advance to match their program is because the RRs won't agree to it.

It has been suggested.

[BTO_farmalll]

Fight, Fight, Fight, Fight, Fight!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dape',

Sit Down and Shut The Fck Up fer a Second, Why Dont You!!!!!!!

Its Very Simple To Understand What is Going On!!!!!! You Guys Need To Quit Pretending Our Dollar is Still at Par!!!!! The Grain Buyers Want To Price Off The US Futures Board, THATS FINE, But Play By The Fcking Rules!!!!!!!

$5.76 USD per Bushel

$5.76 USD X 1.20 = $6.91 CDN

$6.91 CDN - $1.15 CDN = $5.76 CDN

$330 (Port Price)/36.74 = $8.98 CDN

$8.98 - $5.76 = $3.22

Explain To Us Why There is a $1.15 Basis, When Port Price is @ $9 Per Bushel, Leaving The Crooks $3.22 To Play With!!!!!!!

So Dape',

Lets Say Our Dollar is @ $0.60

$5.76 USD x 1.40 = $8.06 CDN per Bushel

$8.06 - $5.76 = $2.30 Basis

So You Mean To Sit There And Tell Me There Is Going to Be a $2.30 Basis on Our Wheat?????? Cause Thats The Current Math You and Yer Grain Buyin Cronies Are Using!!!!!!! Whats The Difference Between US & CDN Wheat That it Makes it That Much More Worthless, Huh???????

And Dont You EVER Tell Me Basis is Not Profit fer These Sob's!!!!!! Think Crushers You Mindless Fck!!!!!!!

[BTO_farmalll]

Dape',

Just Answer This One Question fer Me So I Know Where We Stand,

How Come When The Cronies Wanna Sell Us Fertilizer Its Straight Forward Math,

US Price (Based on NOLA) X fx(plus a little xtra on top just to make sure) = Price Charged 2#DumbCDNfarmer

BUT, When Buying Grain Works Like This,

$5.76 USD - $0.20 CDN = $5.56 CDN

K, So I am Going 2 Put This in Such Simple Terms Even Tom's Dog Can Understand This!!!!!

And This Is Reality!!!!!!

Say I Live in Sascratch&win Right on The Border, (Jack's My Neighbour)

I Have Two Elevators I can Deliver Too, One on Each Side, Equal Driving Distance,

I Deliver a Load To The Us Side, Sell My Grain, Grab The Cheque, "Thank You Sir" n' I'm on My Way!!!!!

On My Way To Cash The Cheque in C.. No Wait, Since We Get F'd on That Here Also, I Stop At My US Bank, Cash My Cheque n' Convert USD to CDN, See Grain Receipt Below....

$5.76 USD - $0.20 USD = $5.56 USD Per Bushel NET

Now I Take $5.56 USD X 1.20 fx = $6.67 CDN in My Pocket

Figure, Ahh What da Hell, Give My Comedian Grain Buyers a Chance, So I Deliver a Load,

ohhhhh Fck!!!! Look Out!!!!! Deys Pickin Over It Worse den da Hens Would in da Ole' Hen House!!!!!! But He's Like, ahhh Fck, With a Pat on The Shoulder, Yer Such a Nice Guy, We'll Only Take $0.20 Basis Off!!!! F' it, Whatever, I Need da Money!!!!! See Grain Receipt Below....

$5.76 USD - $0.20 CDN = $5.56 CDN NET, Cashed At The Local Credit Union in Town,

So Dape',

Here We Have 2 Prices,

$6.67 CDN From US Elevator
$5.56 CDN From CDN Elevator

Both Are Equal Driving Distance & Served By BNSF Rail Road,

DO YOU SEE WHERE THE PHONY FCKING MATH IS YET A$$hole!!!!!!!!!

[BTO_farmalll]

Jack OneO***

[BTO_farmalll]

Jack,

Now That I Mentioned It,

How is That Elevator Coming Along Anyway!!!!!!!

Why Not Post a Few Pics!!!!!!

[MBgrower]

U nailed it BTO on the cross border comparison. I get a cheque in us funds and cash it in canadian dollars, voilla, 20% gain on f/x. Good thing the graincos dont also own banks and deny us fx gain on usa grain cheques.

[Guest]

well , there buying oil companies out of our missing fx , why not a bank , probably next ?

[MBgrower]

U nailed it BTO on the cross border comparison. I get a cheque in us funds and cash it in canadian dollars, voilla, 20% gain on f/x. Good thing the graincos dont also own banks and deny us fx gain on usa grain cheques.