Bunge Eastern Plants Pay Farmers $11.61 a bushel for Canola, West?

[riders2010]

Oh I see maybe that's what Stevie wonderless was doing with the shovel. Burying the pasta plant idea or shoveling the bullshit he s been saying.

He probably has that shovel with him full time.
Sounds like he has some shoveling to do about sending our troops to combat without consulting
Canadians first.

[bucket]

Braveheart

You do realize it was murad AL Katib that was with harper at the transportation hub announcing a pasta plant?

Now he is doing the cta review.

Photo op for a review seat. Not a bad trade. And it cost Katib nothing.

[jdepape]

I'm late to the table but gonna address the original question about the price in Hamilton vs SK.

The spread shown is $68.20 per tonne.

Handling at the elevator - let's say $15

Rail freight from SK to TBay - not sure, but let's guess at $35.

Handling through TBay - let's call it $15

Laker frt to Hamilton - $20 is light but let's use it anyway.

All tolled, we got to $80 pretty easily, and I think I'm being conservative.

So, to buy canola in SK for $444 and ship it to Hamilton, you'd own it in Hamilton at $529 - almost $20/tonne higher than the local bid in Ontario.

Looks to me like they are paying the local guy somewhat LESS than replacement value.

[bgmb]

what about my wheat example depape ?

[jdepape]

And whoever said that $10 is the magic number and the graincos know it - was absolutely right.

Everywhere you go, guys are saying $10 is their number - so why wouldn't the graincos know this!

And everytime we get close to $10, the farmer selling picks up. We see it in the price - I've seen days when the futures go up and the basis goes down - and we end up sitting no higher than $10.

Right now, if you compare the stocks in the system to the expected demand (kind of a "pipeline stocks to use ratio), there is over 7 weeks' worth of canola in the system. Usually it's between 3 and 4 weeks. And I've seen it as low as 2.5 - at which time the basis gets very attractive.

There is absolutely no reason to pay more for canola right now. They can get all they need at $10 - and they don't need it anyway.

Farmers have more influence on price than you give yourselves credit.

[jdepape]

bgmb - what was the question?

Trucking to Van?

If that was it, none of the terminals in Vancouver are set up to receive trucks (although I heard one had tried it)

[fjlip]

"Farmers have more influence on price than you give yourselves credit.", absolutely, but we will NEVER act together, always the many divided due to individual situations/cash requirement and so the few buyers RULE!

[MBgrower]

Jdepape, I completely agree, farmers are setting a lid on canola prices. Graincos are probably sitting on a sh@tload of $10.00 targets. Cash prices and basis is based on how low farmers are willing to sell and to fulfill Graincos shipping commitments. Unfortunately too many farmers selling at these prices. Farmers in s.mb had good crops and the U.S. market as an option. Canola basis firmer here, as farmers not willing sellers.

[bucket]

And don't forget statscan and the advance program feed the graincos data about grain stored on farm and the amount of grain held on those programs.

Not individually of course but as a whole graincos are fed inside info.

[samhill]

There's not enough canola grown in Ontario/Quebec to operate a canola crushing plant, so where does it come from ?