One Dumb Farmer Seeding intentions vs Experts! Ah I think Im more intune with whats going on.

[SASKFARMER3]

Well I think the Experts are wrong. Follow the Money. Demand is their yes Charlie the new plant is on line. But one thing happens in Canada The more we produce the less we get. 2013 showed just how right that is. 2014 the supply was suppose to be high because of carry over and now 2015 they are saying were growing more again to keep ending stocks high so price will stay flat.
Ah farming where its Us against every one else.

Reality Seeding from our little neck of the woods.
Based on 10000 acres.

HRS 3000 - 2015 vs 4000 2014
Oats 1000 - 2015 vs 600 2014
Peas 1000 - 2015 vs 700 2014
Barley 1000 - 2015 vs 400 2014
Soy 300 - 2015 vs 300 2014
Flax 700 - 2015 vs 0 2014
Canola 3000 - 2015 vs 4000 2014

Joe Farmer says that Experts are wrong. This is what Canadian farmers will be growing.

Durum acreage will be up
HRS acreage will be down
Lentils will be up and so will peas. Canola acreage will be down due to Western areas seeding more lentils and peas and durum.
Flax acreage will be up.
Oats acreage will be up.
Barley acreage will drop again.
Soy will stay same as some in Sask will drop but Manitoba is going to increase and drop canola.

[SASKFARMER3]

The experts believe acreage will increase this year in Western Canada as Flooded acres come back into production.
WTF sloughs that took 8 years of floods don't disappear in a winter. Again WTF do these experts smoke I need some real bad.
2016 will see increase in Acres if 2015 is dryer. No one is going to seed in mud in East sask just to have it flooded out in June of July.
Experts!!!!!!!!!!!

[bucket]

Sf3

You think these guys give a shit?

They don't. They get paid to spew nonsense. Look at some other threads about basis calculations. Some people want to keep a convoluted calculation to keep there job even though they are called into politicians offices for recommendations to fix it?

Meanwhile over at statscan they feed all info to the graincos before the ink is dry. Asked them when they were harassing me the other day what happens to the info? They said we give it to industry and various political people. What for I asked. They said to develop better programs and planning. Really could you go back to 1997 and explain why 2014 happened if someone was paying attention.

It's all a ****ing joke. September 2014 peas are supposed to be hauled now. **** it I will wait another 4 months to deliver just to play the same game as them.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes I agree all the BS info that come from so called experts.
Why Cant we have a JD tour in Canada and have people from grain companies, Experts in Agronomy and Farmers tour fields and come up with yield data for Canada like the USA. No couldn't do that.
Basically Canada keeps farmers in the dark while all others have fun.
Idiot wrote in Leader Post today how he studied the rail movement last year and it was the harsh winter that caused the back logs.
WTF.
I was able to haul all winter the trains choose not to move.

[Partners]

Any thing to keep the prices down..These guys must paid by line companies..

[charliep]

Sk3 so you are moving from 40 percent canola in your rotation to 30 percent. That to me would be consistent with a good rotation.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes it is to get back to normal seeding that way!
But risk factor for canola is awful with seed where it's at! The market will drop of usa produces soy again like this year! Growing more canola isn't the answer!
Plus if I could grow lentils or durum why the hell would I seed canola! But unfortunately we can't grow decent lentils or durum any more so their out of favor!

[Oliver88]

Faba Beans Going Up
Canary Going Up

What will these acres replace?

[tweety]

Can anyone else hear the violins playing in the background?

[wakopa]

Yep all the way to manitoba

[Braveheart]

I believe Ag Canada has it right. Canola either pays the bills or is perceived to pay the bills by most farmers. I know most of you don't want believe that but that's the way most see it.

There's lots of reasons. Domestic demand is growing. Export demand is always there. But more than anything, when farmers do their loan reviews, canola values really bring those crop inventory values up.

Dispute AAFCs' numbers if you like, but best advice would be to plan your business like the numbers are real.

[tweety]

Dead on. Canola is the cocaine addiction of the ag industry.

On the business side, better grow it soon because it will be so diseased and it isn't going to have a long future.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, I don't get excited about acres this time of the year. I look at the disappearance side. My number (you can disagree) is that Canada can consistently find customers for 16 million tonnes. From there, the next issue in my mind is whether soybean oil futures can hold 32 cents per pound. Add in the uncertainty about the loonie for good measure.

[bucket]

Charliep

If the loonie continues to slip, shouldn't we be sold out of canola pretty quick without any rationing starting soon?

[charliep]

Are you asking can I forecast the future with 100 % certainty? The answer would be no. Have thoughts about where carryovers might be but they will be adjusted to reflect what happens over the next 6 months. My canola carryover would be around 1.5 MMT today - 10 percent stocks use ratio.

Apologize for a bad analogy but is like skipping at the curling rink. You likely have a plan when put the broom for the first rock the lead throws but things change as the game proceeds.