One Dumb Farmer Seeding intentions vs Experts! Ah I think Im more intune with whats going on.

[Braveheart]

I believe Ag Canada has it right. Canola either pays the bills or is perceived to pay the bills by most farmers. I know most of you don't want believe that but that's the way most see it.

There's lots of reasons. Domestic demand is growing. Export demand is always there. But more than anything, when farmers do their loan reviews, canola values really bring those crop inventory values up.

Dispute AAFCs' numbers if you like, but best advice would be to plan your business like the numbers are real.

[tweety]

Dead on. Canola is the cocaine addiction of the ag industry.

On the business side, better grow it soon because it will be so diseased and it isn't going to have a long future.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, I don't get excited about acres this time of the year. I look at the disappearance side. My number (you can disagree) is that Canada can consistently find customers for 16 million tonnes. From there, the next issue in my mind is whether soybean oil futures can hold 32 cents per pound. Add in the uncertainty about the loonie for good measure.

[bucket]

Charliep

If the loonie continues to slip, shouldn't we be sold out of canola pretty quick without any rationing starting soon?

[charliep]

Are you asking can I forecast the future with 100 % certainty? The answer would be no. Have thoughts about where carryovers might be but they will be adjusted to reflect what happens over the next 6 months. My canola carryover would be around 1.5 MMT today - 10 percent stocks use ratio.

Apologize for a bad analogy but is like skipping at the curling rink. You likely have a plan when put the broom for the first rock the lead throws but things change as the game proceeds.

[bucket]

I was just asking if the lower loonie will make canola a better deal therefore dropping ending stocks.

If I was rich it might be an interesting play to own canola going into spring. Dry conditions. No snow. Warm January.

A normal year won't straighten this year's cropping out but 2016 will change if it's dry.

If I was super rich like you charliep I would sit this year out.

[farming101]

The total open interest in Canola futures is going up at a very quick rate.
Likely a combination of short term speculation and new export sales being made or foreign buyers who would like to do more canola business.
If farmers can hold back on sales and get commercial stocks dropping there could be a case for $10 plus floor with some upside for the final months of the crop year.
An 80 cent dollar can't hurt.

[bucket]

Thanks 101.

[charliep]

bucket,

Come to FarmTech and we'll compare networths. The person with the biggest network buys beer.

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny topic! Yea Charlie I do agree with the curling analogy! It's still 100 days or less from seeding and we have till June to change acres!
Buy my point that tweedy and brave don't get is the experts want canola on every acre because the whole industry loves the profits this crop gives them! Suppliers, insurance, grain companies etc! All make great amounts handling canola!
Grow on. But realistically if lentils and peas are going up and durum is up and other crops are up which one will drop acres! You got it it canola the most expensive crop to grow!
But tweety and brave share your seeding plans!