wheat buddy is out.

[LWeber]

Chaffmeister posted Oct 23, 2008 13:03
________________________________________
charlie brings up a good point. Impact of FX.

I also watch EPO discounts in the hopes it will shed some light on the mystery of CWB pricing.

Sept 26th:
Cdn dollar............1.0330 (0.9661)
CWRS 100% EPO disc....$48.00

Oct 22nd:
Cdn dollar............1.2533 (0.7969)
CWRS 100% EPO disc....$92.50

A weaker Cdn dollar strengthens price prospects in Cdn dollars, so I wonder what the EPO would have been if the exchange rate hadn't moved.

This might be simplistic analysis, but this EPO discount is telling me that the CWB figures the current market is about $100 below the current PRO.

Since we're about half way through the selling period for the crop year, I'm going to guess that the PRO should be down by $50/tonne.

But, for purely political reasons, I suspect the CWB will drop it by only $25 (or less).

[LWeber]

I’m happy I get to test a copyright infringement on your sorry ass.

[bucket]

When the open market started in 2012 the dollar was par and we had better prices than in the US. Today our prices should be alot better.

[MBgrower]

What ever happened to Chaffmeister? Wasnt he from South of Winnipeg somewheres?

[jdepape]

Larry - long time no talk.

Pipeline margins have gone from $25 to $32 dollars to $100.00 to $125.00.
<b>Oddly, it appears we are at least close to agreeing, but we seem to differ on what the problem is and how to solve it.</b>

While you defend it and the grain co's - the rest of the world is laughing at Canada - the same way they were before.
<b> Explaining it is quite different than defending it. And identifying the problem is the first step to fixing it. You talk about pipeline margins as if that's the problem (as opposed to the symptom). If larger than reasonable margins are the problem, what's the solution? (Sincere question.)</b>

Did you or did you not try to sell your "expertise" to the CWB because they were hedging FX wrongly.
<b>I introduced a world class FX trader (from Monaco) to the CWB - thought he could help. You and I both were saying they were getting it wrong, remember? You even wrote here on Agriville how the Aussies were doing it right and the CWB was losing gobs of money cuz they were doing it wrong, remember?</b>

Now the right way is not to include it at all.
<b>I'm quite frankly surprised that you don't know how/what they're doing.</b>

The market is always right bullshit.
<b>When a farmer sells his wheat at 100 under - or 200 under - and the buyer accepts it, THAT's the market. That's not to say it's perfect.</b>

****ing grow up. Canola is inverted - basis is 30 under - yet the market is right...
<b>Another one we agree on. The cash market (basis) is doing exactly what you would expect - under the circumstances. The problem is in the way railcars are allocated (and rationed) and it all stems from last year's debacle. Just one more factor to consider in the whole rail transportation screw up. I've written about it here on another thread and given my input to ICE on what needs to be done. Have you?</b>

Try selling your capture the carry stigma on that.
<b>Stigma? Really? Disgrace? Quite the contrary.

I seem to have touched a nerve. Sorry. But if we are going to solve the many problems in this industry, those of us that want a functioning market better start getting on the same page. Hope you're with us on that.</b>

[bucket]

Depape

So you agree that the open market was poorly implemented?

Seems like quite a few things to fix.

[jdepape]

MBGrower

Chaffmeister was me and I was he.

I used that name back in the day when I had to be careful about sharing my opinions.

It appears that maybe we still need to be careful....Pity.

[bucket]

Also so you also agree the true basis is 100 - 200 under?

As opposed to what graincos present as a positive basis. Or something narrower?

[jdepape]

bucket:
I've described ending the single desk was like pulling a tree out of the ground, roots and all. A lot of heavy lifting but it left a hole. There's work to be done to fill it in and create a level playing field.

We're not there yet.

[jdepape]

Basis is simply the difference between futures and cash.

Period.

It is NOT a cost.
Graincos do not buy your grain at "whatever under" and sell it for futures price.

Basis is a price (or a component of price, if you prefer).

On wheat in western Canada, you can look at it a number of ways:

1. Convert the futures to CAD, then deduct the CAD cash price.
Basis in CAD.

2. Convert the CAD cash price to US, and deduct from futures (in USD). Basis in USD.

3. Take the Cash price in CAD and deduct futures (in USD).
Basis is neither USD or CAD - it holds the FX conversion.

Each of them is right (so I won't say your 100 under is the "true" basis). I have been stressing that the way the graincos do it (#3) shouldn't be vilified. It works and it in no way hides anything from you. It is a superior way to manage a hedge book.

For what it's worth, I track basis using #2 and #3.