Canola Markets

[ado089]

Where are we headed next with canola? I've felt this market has been dead in the water for close to a month now but CAD is under-performing at a spectacular rate off setting most of the weakness. It also looks like may last weeks option expiry caused some short covering that has abated this week. The inversion is unwinding a bit too. Everything seems to want to meet up at the 450 mark. Thoughts?

[charliep]

I'll add in the colapse of soybean oil prices to under 30 cents. I have been looking for soybean to hold a range in the 32 to 34 cent range but broke support this week.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLH15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]CBT soyoil weekly[/URL]

I'll also highlight the COPA crush margin and the ICE futures Canada. COPA uses US dollars/doesn't do the conversion to soyoil/soymeal. ICE does.

<a href="http://copaonline.net/">COPA</a>

<a href="https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/icefuturescanada/ReportContent.shtml?canolaCrushMarginReport"& gt;ICE</a>

[charliep]

I'll add in that meal remains the everyready. Not over $400 but still holding the trading range.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZMH15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]CBT soymeal weekly[/URL]

[mcdon]

Canola market currently characterized by fund long position of about 40,000 (some of it spread against short bean position) and farmer selling. Some export business. Canola market appears sleepy, like the oil market last year before the collapse. Farmers shouldn't get lulled into thinking these markets last. Fund liquidation could be catalyst.

[Daylate]

Our friends at the elevator know what it takes to get it in the door. Price dip now to narrow June July basis. Lock basis. Wait for spring weather rally. Sell.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, I won't be betting on a big weather rally this spring. Too much South American soybean production. Potentially too many US soybean acres. Soybean/vegetable oil market?

[furrowtickler]

At this point in time I agree with Charlie
At the end of the day canola has a top of about $10.25 , the $10 mark seems to be all they need to pay to open the bins . It has a higher chance of being below 10 then above for the foreseeable future .

[furrowtickler]

Spring road ban time might nab 10.50 if you can haul .

[crusher]

The trend is your friend....until it changes. I'm going to keep on the wagon for a while yet. Have my sell orders in and waiting.

[BTO_farmalll]

I'm Gunna Stand Up Here, And Wave To Yous Alllllllllllllllll The Way Down On This Canlowa Market!!!!!! Have a Nice Trip Guys!!!!!!!!!!



Signed: xCanlowa Grower

[charliep]

Strong close on both canola and soybean oil in a sea of red for cereals and beans/meal. My old thinking was every penny higher/lower on soybean oil, canola futures should move $10/tonne. Doesn't always work but an easy benchmark.

[Oliver88]

How will futures react to a dollar @ $.75USD ??

[furrowtickler]

It will get swallowed up in Basis levels somehow. Regardless of fx or futures markets , the line in the sand will be 10 ish till they start running short.

[ado089]

I'm sitting on a good basis and I'm hedged at 450 on July. I have a short spec position around 445 on march that is making me nervous. I could have cut and run yesterday but I'm figuring on a little bit of softness through some shitty earnings and good S.A. harvest. Oh ya and Cargill was saying they expect canola to drop back down close to $400 and usually what they say they do.

[Oliver88]

Ado, regarding your Cargill comment...you must be referring to a $400/tonne price delivered?

So Cargill is suggesting they will be widening their basis?