Basis Variability in Montana DNS wheat prices/basis

[charliep]

Perhaps to my points.

Over the past 90 days, there has been a 60 cent per bu range in Montana wheat basis between high and low.

On any given day, there is about a 50 cent per bu range between different grain companies bids.

MGEX wheat futures have declined about $1 / bu over the past 6 weeks.

[Braveheart]

Caseih, yes I am close to the US. Right now the price in ND is not that attractive. Basis has been weak.

Elevator managers in ND are reluctant to to take grain from anyone other than regular customers because movement has been really slow. Railcar availability is lacking. One manager we've dealt with said their high dollar must be hurting sales because his book is empty.

However, we've had good luck sending producer cars. I'll caution by saying those were priced a year ago now, and producer cars ordered as soon after Aug 1 as possible. There are more than a few US companies buying CA wheat this way, but I can't give you their names on this site for reasons. Sorry.

Your best luck into an elevator is in Minnesota. I don't know how far you are, but try Markit County Grain (correct spelling) in Argyle, MN. They have a website. Also, Walsh Grain in Park River, ND. Walsh will post on their website when they are unable to take CA grain.

It sounds like you have the wheat everyone wants. Wish I could help more. Good luck.

[Braveheart]

Charlie, for me, 3 things. It takes basis risk away. It won't erode any on me.

Second, it gives me access to the delivery system. Without contracts nowadays access isn't a sure thing.

Last, it pays bills.

The futures side is what it is (low), but, futures can be rolled, bought back if expected,to,rise, options used, etc.

[Hopalong]

Two parts to our elevator cash price, futures and basis.
Both set by free market competition.
Used to hear same type of criticism over futures markets, that speculators were making obscene profits from their efforts.
At least on AgriVille, criticism seems to have shifted to graincos.
Some suggest conspiracy and collusion as reason for low prices but think for most part,as well as with high prices, supply and demand are main drivers.
Most of us also see competition as a driver to make free markets work effectively.
Distressing to hear others say that we should conspire among ourselves to restrict competition and production.
The very thing that we get so upset about when others do it.

[charliep]

I will highlight as well that basis is only one component of price. From a year ago, farmers who sold this past winter for an ugly basis put more money in their pocket that others who sold later for a better basis. Losses on the futures side resulting in more pain than gains from better basis.

Pick your poison. Just have a plan.

[wmoebis]

What would price be if basis were figured as a % of futures in stead of straight $ bet the FX would be added on then.

[charliep]

I am going to post the delivery specifications for the MGEX spring futures.

[URL="http://www.mgex.com/contract_specs.html"]MGEX wheat[/URL]

[cottonpicken]

We have seen a HUGE move in the dollar,15% since the start off the crop year ,lots of offside trades to be covered.

[tstep]

All I can say is it's one **** up system

[stonepicker]

CharlieP and braveheart said it best, the opportunities were there and if you didn't act on any of the opportunities you screwed yourself ! But i guess it's easier to blame someone else. How did we ever make all that money off canola for 35 years. Prices have always gone up and down. If the price is too low then, don't sell! The opportunities were there and they'll be there again.

[SASKFARMER3]

Again were not looking for some one to blame, it's about a system that is broken the basis is f$&ked and the Feds didn't plan the change over .
The dollar isn't reflected.
All three genius explain how the basis is working not just your sad since you missed out. We didn't miss out its about a poor basis and no accountability. That's all we're asking for. What we have now is awful.

[stonepicker]

No sk3, quit complaining about the basis and start studying it. When i locked in dec. 14 futures price last spring the basis was well over 70. dollars, so i just locked in a futures price, not the basis. ( waited for the basis to narrow ) You complain about every last thing, from the weather to everything else under the sun. Your always on holidays so things can't be as bad as you make out. Me thinks you cry wolf too much. How many times did you say your crop was screwed last year? What ar you worried about, you shouldn't have anything to market after your latest crop failure. I think i'll do my taxes, it's more positive.

[binthere]

i guess some will never be able to walk the tight rope of free enterprise with out a saftey net.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha .
The basis is a shit show answer me this show me how I'm wrong about the basis and our dollar and I'll gladly stop.
Those who think farming is going to boom on are short sighted, this shit show were in is going to make the 80s seem like a walk in the park.
Admit ritz screwed up, he got one part right getting rid of the CWB but he left the policing to the grain companies.
Explain why only one business world wide doesn't need shareholders it's just families controlling.
Hm 150 years their billionairs how are farmers doing.
We gave them full power, I'm just asking for a few rules.
But explain your side it would be nice to here.
Aloha!

[agchat]

"Admit ritz screwed up, he got one part right getting rid of the CWB but he left the policing to the grain companies."
Saskfarmer that was the plan all along. Saskfarmer I agree with the majority of the stuff you say on here, but do you really think Ritz cracker did it for the farmers? He got your vote, and gave the grain companies what THEY wanted. ****, is no one on this site ready to admit that yet?
Now lets all jump to conclusions thinking I was a STRONG CWB. WRONG AGAIN. I always try to vision what is on the other side of the smoke, before i drive thru. End of rant.