Stocks of principal field crops, December 31, 2014

[SASKFARMER3]

As of December 31, 2014, total stocks of most principal field crops were down from the same date in 2013. As such, they reflected a downward trend seen in production, which also decreased from 2013 to 2014. However, both on-farm and commercial stocks of soybeans were at record levels as of December 31.

Total stocks of wheat decreased 13.5% from December 31, 2013, to 24.8 million tonnes, following a 22.0% decrease in wheat production in 2014. On-farm stocks totalled 20.8 million tonnes, down 17.8% from the record high of 25.3 million tonnes in 2013. On the other hand, commercial stocks were up 19.6% to 4.0 million tonnes.

Overall canola stocks stood at 11.1 million tonnes as of December 31, 2014, down 10.5% from December 31, 2013. On-farm stock levels fell 13.9% to 9.9 million tonnes, closely reflecting the 13.4% drop in production in 2014. Commercial stock levels rose 32.8% over the same period to 1.2 million tonnes.

Total stocks of corn for grain totalled 9.7 million tonnes on December 31, 2014, down 16.6% from the record level of 11.6 million tonnes at December 31, 2013. This decline resulted from a 16.2% decrease in on-farm stocks and an 18.0% drop in commercial stocks.

Total stocks of oats fell 12.7% from December 31, 2013, to 2.5 million tonnes on December 31, 2014, with on-farm stocks down 13.3% to 2.3 million tonnes. Commercial stocks declined 4.7% to 177 300 tonnes.

Barley stocks decreased 20.3% from December 31, 2013, to 5.4 million tonnes on December 31, 2014. The decline was mostly due to a 21.6% drop in on-farm stocks to 5.1 million tonnes.

Overall soybean stocks rose 29.4% from December 31, 2013, to a record 3.5 million tonnes on December 31, 2014, surpassing the previous high of 2.8 million tonnes reported on December 31, 2011. Commercial stocks rose 57.1% to 1.2 million tonnes, while stocks held on farms increased 18.0% to 2.3 million tonnes.

[Hopalong]

With normal rail movement and exports, looks like we will be down to a reasonable carry over by time new crop hits the system.
Looking at submissions to CTA review what I see is more of same regulated system that growers complained so bitterly about this past year.
Inter switching, government shipping orders, penalties and fines for non performance and revenue cap come to mind
Not much on rail car ownership and allocation to shippers.
Hear criticism of US system where allocation is done more by market price.
Think a closed mind on revenue cap and car allocation is not in best longer term interest of shippers and growers.

[bucket]

Hopalong

Good point about a market based system for cars. In my utopian world if north american harvests timed out differently those cars could be bid to where they were needed.

Not likely.

Reports say US bids for cars went from 4000 to the current bid of 500.

It might make sense to have a independent own the cars for bidding purposes when heavy movement is required.

Problem is even if all the railways had to do was supply the locomotives the track capacity may not be there to move cars.

There should be a structure in place where you have a required movement matched to car supply and end user capacity. But also a way to access additional cars for a undetermined grain sale.

We are probably lacking in car supply and track capacity. And neither can be solved overnight.

[bucket]

Also a market based system would be good for bidding cars.

The big BUT is whether the railways would concede on their car ordering system.

If graincos can't start ordering bid cars months in advance to match the contracts they have with farmers then there is no way to make it work going forward.