2015 good ? Or bad?

[GOODRUM]

It seems that there is some on both sides of the farming is good and farming is bad fence.
I'm leaning towards the farming is bad side.
Sure we're scraping bye and struggling to cover things again this year but the difference this year is my optimism, it's not looking very good.
It seems that every time something is presented to us farmers that is supposed to make us more money it's not very long and the benefit we bought into is in the hands of someone else.
I wasn't that involved when the crow rate was taken away but went along with the ones deciding that we would be better without it.
Then there was the Sask wheat pool, what would the dividends cheques be like with the margins that grain companies are making now?
How about the 100 car spot??
Gotta have that or were not going to be able to compete, ha this is the worst time in my life to try and make deliveries.
What a joke, I now have to wait longer to haul farther!
These are just a few of nearly every change in my farming career that I thought would be beneficial to me, a grass root producer.
This will get to long if I list the technology advances that were supposed to make us more efficient.
I used to be one that enjoyed change and was excited by it, now not so much. I guess I'm crossing over to the side that dislikes change, after seeing every benefit made in ag soon in the hands of a multi national.
How are we supposed to compete with these companies who have a office full of brainiacs who dedicate all their time to cover every angle and work things backwards to see what is left for them to squeeze out of us.
I guess there will be many who had a good crop and are less aware of the things I mentioned. My crop was weak last year and in a crop insurance claim position, if I wasn't in this claim position I would be less effected by the drop in coverage from 2013 to 2014 of nearly $100 bucks an acre on canola.
I know I have become more efficient over the years but after the last couple of years I am still needing to become still more efficient and looking over my situation I'm not sure there is any fat left to trim to guarantee a profit.

[grrrr]

Goodrum: I feel the same way when it comes to advances in farming. I think it is called "Getting Older". It used to take me all day to go through the Crop Production Show in Saskatoon. Now I'm done in an hour. Same for the Farm Progress Show in Regina. It's not that I'm not interested anymore. It's just that I don't think I need this or that to farm. So what if I gross $10 or $20 per acre less than I could have gotten with all the latest snake oil. I might have saved myself $30 per acre by doing it my way.

[farmaholic]

Regardless if you think farming is good or bad, anyone who is still doing it must be an eternal optimist and have big balls to stay in the game. It isn't for the faint of heart or anyone who can't handle risk. Patience is a required virtue and you better have a good understanding of accepting circumstances beyond your control.

Feeling the "squeeze", too often, does get old. I've never been involved in any other business so have nothing to compare it to but it does seem somewhat unique to me. The part I find most frustrating is lack of ability to set my own prices for what I produced. I agree you can't arbitrarily set anything where you want it but after "doing what it takes" to produce a crop and not having to option of setting a price for profitability seems odd.

Where do you start and stop in regards to putting money into a crop? You can keep adding without any guarantees of profitability. Which parts do you leave out or chinse out on? If you give it all it "needs" you can quite easily move the economics into negative territory. The prices of the components of growing a crop is such that it can be tough to have much left for the producer if your not lucky enough to grow at least an average crop. If your below average, sorry. I believe inputs are priced for an average crop. The indiscriminate pricing of certain inputs without any regard for Producer profitability, yet providing excessive profits for themselves seems counter productive. Why starve out your customers? (Fert, Seed, Grainco margins, Chemicals)

How many $/ac for a margin are you satisfied with? Think of it in terms of a "return on investment for the amount of risk you're taking".... most people wouldn't do it.

[SASKFARMER3]

Their are two camps boys! The lotto winners of the last 8 years. And the flood zone farmers who lost millions.
Simply one group was able to take advantage of good crops great prices and profit. The other survived with huge expense plus poor yield do to lost acres from seeding to fall.
Why did the big boys go broke in our part of the world.
This winter is tough low prices, poor grades, poor rail service etc. Some are seriously wondering if they will make it.
It's not management, it's where you farmed. Pike and one earth had great accountants and business managers, Mother Nature won.
Optimist this spring I am first time in years. It's been a dry winter with the same weather patern, if it continues, we will thrive. So yes 2015 maybe will be promising.

[tweety]

grrrr, i hear ya bud! Dead fricken on!!!

So many farmers are expending huge amounts of life energy and money to lose 5$ an acre in an attempt to eek out 2$.

[tweety]

Oh and if you can't make money during ag right now, you're doing something seriously wrong. Probably spending needlessly huge amounts of money with little to no ROI.

[farming101]

The weather truly is at times the great equalizer or at other times it seems as if it's almost choosing sides.
Weather events are at the top of the list of things that cannot be controlled or predicted; a successful farmer accepts that.
A happy farmer goes out each spring and does it all again because there's nothing else like being outside working under the big blue roof.
As far as deciding how much to put into the crop it quickly becomes obvious that each farm will have a different level where risk exceeds reasonable expectation of return.
Keeping control of debt and budgets is key to survival. Find the balance for each new year and live with it.

Amarillo Sky....

[sawfly]

don't know
bought the ransom fert. and still paying the same for rent for now.

it better be good.

just give it the most economical 100%
effort and spin the wheel.
i have great small crew that work with me.
there is sub soil moisture ,like we never had in the 80s.
so the odds of a decent crop are there.

the rest of the equation is where the trouble lies.
when the federal govt.s plan to fix transportation is a crop failure.

when most of your suppliers have the govt. granting them their own ,cartels, tariffs,
monolopys, price fixing and old boys networks.

Mother nature and world prices are one thing,

but to have the fruits of your hard work and efficiency s plucked away as soon as you realize them.

then taken to it's extreme ,
when the farm economy crashes.
and govt. has to save us.

the general public thinks farmers
are the ones getting the welfare.

boy are they good, they have ran off with the money and we take the fall.

.

[GOODRUM]

I agree with everyone that mother nature does have the final say but 2013 she did cooperate enough to give us a great crop, so we avoided enough natural disasters to have a good crop only to have a man made disaster trump our good fortune and take it away ,
I hope your right S3 , but we got a lot of moisture last night. I hope it stops.

[Guest]

I think the leaches are having trouble controlling themselves . They use to make sure they left us enough to want to do it again . There are so many with their hands in our pockets now that they can't control each other. The first sign that they have gone to far is canola seed sales ,experts are saying sales are down 30% . I bet it will be more like 50% down . Many people here aren't growing any at all . Then look at the shiny new inventory sitting on dealers lots , (that you couldn't get supposedly unless you ordered it 2 years ahead ??) well its sitting there now and lots of it , doesn't matter what colour either.That is the only bright spot I see, is that it is blowing right up in their faces. Also farmers appear to be realizing they can't grow these crops under COP . I think the answer is grow a little bit of everything . Try to max out on speciality crops , pulses and lay off the poor old tired wheat and canola shit shows. Try and grow crops that will make the the grain co's and railroads appreciate us again and realize that THEY need to be partners with us if this is going to work . It will take a year or two , but make no mistake who is feeding these co's . They just have to come to that realization again

[TASFarms]

Was told by the seed lab that if I try to grow a cereal in 2years time where I did this year that if its a wet year I will be burying my crop because there won't be enough fungicide one could put on to save it

[Hopperbin]

Should be more than normal runoff here. And were not done yet. At least the worked soil is not blowing. If there is a drought to come it has not started here yet. We froze up wet. Railroads handing it to us currently. Some new crop contracts like malt barley or flax have pencilled out. With 0 percent chance of meeting a malt spec and actually getting paid a contract price why. Flax may hold up better than expected. Canola planting seed should be on sale. Or next year farmers will be buying 2 year old seed again.

[TASFarms]

Was told by the seed lab that if I try to grow a cereal in 2years time where I did this year that if its a wet year I will be burying my crop because there won't be enough fungicide one could put on to save it

[freewheat]

I usually look forward to the next year. I do again this coming year too. But I do not like where ag is going, and has been going. I am old enough to know I made more money with 7 dollar canola, good weather, and 2.79 a lb invigor seed, and 19 cent nitrogen, than I do now.

But I am too dang young to feel so disgruntled on the other hand. I remember being Klauses age, and being excited for each new day, each new technology. I went to meetings, never missed a farm show.

Now I do not give a rip about farm meetings, and I detest farm shows. They just have zero appeal anymore.

Part of it is circumstantial, like terrible weather in a time of great prices. Part of it is I am alone in so many ways; Alone working the farm, alone in terms of people who understand me: I have no gps, no auto steer, and folks think I have rocks in my head. I don't have a big drive to farm more land, it just doesn't interest me.

I like my animals, and am growing into them, while everyone else is building bins, buying paralink drills, and selling their livestock. I like to hunt and preserve habitat. Everyone else pushes all they can and then beg me to hunt on my land.

I have a different mindset, and I am alone in it. That alone gets so old and lonely.

For me, I am fairly confident for the coming year. The weather has been so nasty for so long, it simply can not get worse!

If it sucks again, I will do what I always have done. I will be content with what we have, and tighten the belt some more, which seems to be a lost art.

I am positive and negative...

[bgmb]

Looking like a great year ahead got all the fertilizer pre bought and grain markets look to be headed higher.