Apparently we need to hurry and buy... fertilizer is going up up up.
Bryce over at farm futures puts together an excellent weekly report on fertilizer.
Unprofitable new crop prices continue to keep fertilizer markets quiet, both in the U.S. and around the world. While the strong dollar makes products more expensive overseas, U.S. growers are watching futures prices to see if crop insurance will provide any protection for their investment in N, P and K.
Ammonia prices eased $5 on average last week on retail markets, with some dealers cutting costs as they restock following a big drop in wholesale prices. The index used to settle swaps at the Gulf fell another $45 for February contracts, on top of a $100 drop in January. At just under $450 a ton the Gulf price translates into an average retail price of $620, $60 below the average this week. Terminals have been slower to cut costs, keeping retail prices higher. Falling corn acreage in 2015 and shifting application patterns create potential for lower costs, but dealers remain wary about keeping excess supply on hand. Costs in Illinois and Iowa are running $685 to $700, with dealers on the Plains typically $640 to $665.
Urea prices also have a softer tone this week, with Gulf swaps moving lower on news India bought less than expected from China in its latest round of deals at prices that show plenty of product is available. That drop comes on top of a break of around $11.50 last week, taking the Gulf price down to $316.50 a ton. More imports are set to arrive in the U.S., which could knock another $25 off average retail costs of $457 this week. Some Illinois dealers are already there, while Plains dealers are typically $410 to $450 right now. Swaps continue to point to a price break into summer of $20 to $25 a ton.
UAN remains the firmest leg of the nitrogen market, after farmers applied less nitrogen last fall and seek to cut costs by using less and putting it down later. Swaps at the Gulf for 32% were steady at $267.50, with contracts for spring and early summer $5 less. Retail costs were 50 cents higher for 28% at just over $317, which is actually cheap compared to traditional margins in the wholesale market.
Phosphates were firm last week, with problems shipping product out of North Africa offset by ideas China will be a willing seller. India hasn't done much buying this year, as its subsidy program remains unsettled, keeping the market on guard for surprises. Costs at the Gulf edged $2.50 a ton higher to $442.50 for DAP, with swaps into spring and summer only slightly lower. Those prices translate into fair value of around $550, which was only $6 lower than this week's average retail price of $556. Retail prices that are changing seem to be moving a little higher, though they're in the $530 to $560 range.
Potash prices eased a little last week. Terminal prices lost $2.50 in the Midwest to $402.50, with the average retail cost at $485, down a buck. Retailers changing prices seem to be in the $475 to $485 range, with the market fairly valued right now. There potential for a drop maybe to $440 by spring if farmers decide to cut costs by skimping on K. International buyers are still waiting for China to finalize prices for its next round of imports.
Download the complete report, which includes detailed charts and forecasts for ammonia, urea, UAN, phosphates and potash, using the link below.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm FuturesMagazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and farm management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets and feature price forecasts for key farm crop inputs. A journalist with 38 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.
Bryce over at farm futures puts together an excellent weekly report on fertilizer.
Unprofitable new crop prices continue to keep fertilizer markets quiet, both in the U.S. and around the world. While the strong dollar makes products more expensive overseas, U.S. growers are watching futures prices to see if crop insurance will provide any protection for their investment in N, P and K.
Ammonia prices eased $5 on average last week on retail markets, with some dealers cutting costs as they restock following a big drop in wholesale prices. The index used to settle swaps at the Gulf fell another $45 for February contracts, on top of a $100 drop in January. At just under $450 a ton the Gulf price translates into an average retail price of $620, $60 below the average this week. Terminals have been slower to cut costs, keeping retail prices higher. Falling corn acreage in 2015 and shifting application patterns create potential for lower costs, but dealers remain wary about keeping excess supply on hand. Costs in Illinois and Iowa are running $685 to $700, with dealers on the Plains typically $640 to $665.
Urea prices also have a softer tone this week, with Gulf swaps moving lower on news India bought less than expected from China in its latest round of deals at prices that show plenty of product is available. That drop comes on top of a break of around $11.50 last week, taking the Gulf price down to $316.50 a ton. More imports are set to arrive in the U.S., which could knock another $25 off average retail costs of $457 this week. Some Illinois dealers are already there, while Plains dealers are typically $410 to $450 right now. Swaps continue to point to a price break into summer of $20 to $25 a ton.
UAN remains the firmest leg of the nitrogen market, after farmers applied less nitrogen last fall and seek to cut costs by using less and putting it down later. Swaps at the Gulf for 32% were steady at $267.50, with contracts for spring and early summer $5 less. Retail costs were 50 cents higher for 28% at just over $317, which is actually cheap compared to traditional margins in the wholesale market.
Phosphates were firm last week, with problems shipping product out of North Africa offset by ideas China will be a willing seller. India hasn't done much buying this year, as its subsidy program remains unsettled, keeping the market on guard for surprises. Costs at the Gulf edged $2.50 a ton higher to $442.50 for DAP, with swaps into spring and summer only slightly lower. Those prices translate into fair value of around $550, which was only $6 lower than this week's average retail price of $556. Retail prices that are changing seem to be moving a little higher, though they're in the $530 to $560 range.
Potash prices eased a little last week. Terminal prices lost $2.50 in the Midwest to $402.50, with the average retail cost at $485, down a buck. Retailers changing prices seem to be in the $475 to $485 range, with the market fairly valued right now. There potential for a drop maybe to $440 by spring if farmers decide to cut costs by skimping on K. International buyers are still waiting for China to finalize prices for its next round of imports.
Download the complete report, which includes detailed charts and forecasts for ammonia, urea, UAN, phosphates and potash, using the link below.
Senior Editor Bryce Knorr first joined Farm FuturesMagazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor. He conducts Farm Futures exclusive surveys on acreage, production and farm management issues and is one of the analysts regularly contracted by business wire services before major USDA crop reports. Besides the Morning Call on www.FarmFutures.com he writes weekly reviews for corn, soybeans, and wheat that include selling price targets, charts and seasonal trends. His other weekly reviews on basis, energy, fertilizer and financial markets and feature price forecasts for key farm crop inputs. A journalist with 38 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.
lease immmm Desperate!
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