N prices in China are Falling

[Klause]

Sub 300 bids some as low as 220 a tonne usd... translates to 375 to 390 CAD landed in the Prairies.

[bucket]

Problem is it could go to 100 bucks a tonne.

Can't get it to mid point sask if the railways go out for more than 3 days.

[cottonpicken]

Klause,big problems at the us west coast ports,backed up and maybe close because of labour disputes,may effect you?

[bucket]

Labour disputes amaze me when there is a fragile economy and only make things worse.

[Klause]

It might.... I don't need that fert till June - July so it should make it.


Worst case I can drive down and get it with the semi.

looking at doing some Russian product through the east coast

[Jvan]

Price NOLA in June, Hearing $ 220 ton,
Maybe May?
A lot of UREA plants coming online.
Russian product might get here....?
Have Friend, used to sell product to Russia, ship would be loaded on the way, then no funds. Ship would change location, then funds available. They budgeted getting 60% of their original price.

[vvalk]

Was told that feb 12 was a date that felt needs to be shipped to get here by April.

[Jvan]

Shipped from where?

[Klause]

There is lots of urea in the States. PRICES at retail dropped 10 bucks this week.


Our dollar is what is allowing these prices to gouge us... basically the rise in fert is equivalent to the drop in the buck well x2

[Klause]

There is lots of urea in the States. PRICES at retail dropped 10 bucks this week.


Our dollar is what is allowing these prices to gouge us... basically the rise in fert is equivalent to the drop in the buck well x2

[bucket]

The problem with fertilizer pricing is that the competition isn't from Nola but the Ukraine. And our prices should reflect that. Fertilizer is exported out of canada. It costs very little with natgas prices where they are to produce.

In Canada this is a collusionary pricing practice and outright gouging.

[ColevilleH2S]

US gulf coast price of Urea falling too. Commentary and price graph:


http://www.profercy.com/2015/02/tfi-annual-conference-global-and-us-urea-markets-lacklustre/

[bucket]

One more note.

If fertilizer producers price in usd then they must be paying the expenses in usd .

Should be much cheaper to produce in canada.

No bullets flying by. No demonstrations. Etc etc.

We have to pay a premium to have a low cost production environment?

maybe the fertilizer companies should look at their good fortune to be position here in canada?

[Klause]

FCC figures urea should be sub 500 and phos sub 600.


Well then...
https://m.fcc-fac.ca/en/ag-knowledge/ag-economist/fertilizer-prices-to-drop-along-with-crop-prices.html




What goes around comes around. Agrium and mosaic will get what's coming to them.