The fear and logic in one word ...

[furrowtickler]

After a decade of continuos expansion and ever rising land rents and values , one word may put the brakes on - "downsizing"
I know of several very well run farms that are doing just that right now either with equipment , land or both. A wall has been hit due to many factors but mainly labour and Mother Nature. Throw in ever increasing crop inputs, machinery costs, lower crop prices, increased crop disease pressure , poor grain movement and the numbers just are not working.
Land values locally were still holding around the new year but this may be a tipping point going forward.
I am not expecting a crash by no means but a correction may be closer than thought previously.
The fear will be a drop in perceived value of land.
The logic is sooner or later something has to give.
There is two types of "downsizing" going on - rational and forced . The rational ones will most likely thrive going foreward and the forced ones could implode - time will tell but land rents and possibly land values could be shaken up a bit.
Just food for thought looking ahead and I am not judging it either way, just pointing a change in the tide on some progressive farms could affect land values.

[SASKFARMER3]

What your witnessing happened in our area with the last 8 flood years. You reevaluate concentrate on what's working, down size, let labour go that costs, do more stuff your self. Cut costs. I always said to my neighbors who ask why aren't you expanding now that things are good. I point to my son and say when he is 19 phase four starts. Till then the rest of you can play. It's a business and a cruel business. These low prices will be around for a while as we again proved their was no shortage ever of food. So those who want shoot for 60 and enjoy. I'm happy with a 40. No more doing what the experts say. Max production because we have to as farmers. Piss on all the leaches. It's my farm I'm first the rest are after me.
Enjoy!

[hobbyfrmr]

Furrow,

The progressive farmers in my area may be in good condition to control some more land. They think nothing of having their men drive the equipment 150km for 1700 acres.
The gossip a few years back is one of my neighbors bought and equity position in the case ih dealership in North Battleford.
The very big farms must have set aside a pile of cash in the high price years, im thinking they will be ready to expand.

[agchat]

So Saskfarmer I always have agreed with what you have been saying on here for the past year, in regards to the direction in which way you say the farming sector is heading. I still cannot believe some who are in denial of that. I do have one question for you. Not being a smart ass, but you keep saying that you are not shooting for 60 anymore. I still find that questionable. What is your game plan to not shoot for sixty? What are your top three steps in your cutback of your plan? I do apologize if I sound like a prick, but to me there is a difference in not shooting for and actually cutting back. I guess what I am saying is in all my years of farming I have never set a goal number in what i am going to produce. Unless you have complete control of every possible situation, realistically how can you shoot for?

[Hopalong]

Used to cut back grain production and increase cattle operation in response to wheat surplus.
Others used to diversify into other crops.
Probably least successful was cutting back on inputs and downsizing.
May have helped get us through a difficult year or two but not so good when markets recovered as they inevitably did.
Cash flow planning, well capitalized, adequate storage, forward contracting, crop insurance and AgriStability are preferred alternatives for us.