climate change may dramatically reduce wheat production

[fjlip]

About time we reduced production! YAY!!! Global Warming/ Climate f*uck up by CO2 emissions. Might get a PRICE yet!

http://weatherfarm.com/2015/03/study-finds-climate-change-may-dramatically-reduce-wheat-production/?utm_source=WeatherFarm&utm_campaign=84b26a3d13-July 3 West WeatherFarm&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f16be6d615-84b26a3d13-87866281

[ajl]

Lots of problems and lots of things to worry about but man made global warming is not one of those things. A repeat of 2013 price depressing surplus is a more likely problem.

[westernvicki]

Deja vu: 1970s: you will never grow enough grain to feed the world: produce, produce the hungry world is waiting. The rest is history, now.

Todays haunt, how to feed the world by 2050, when the real problem is trying to find a profitable mix for 2015.

Go figure.

[grrrr]

If I would have kept my wheat, hoping for a price rise, from the first time I heard that global warming was going to cause a shortage, I would have bins of wheat from the 1980's.

[charliep]

I always find these conversations really strange. I understand peoples day to day concerns about being profitable and logistics to get crop into customers hands.

Having said, a longer term view (i.e. one I would use in a career choice/land purchase decision), I am an optimist.

If I did the opportunity and threat part of a SWOT analysis (portion over which farmers have no control), I would come up with the following.

Opportunity - Growth in consumption. I don't known if you consider 1 % growth every in world wheat consumption to be a wild forecast (population growth) but that is 7 million tonnes a year. If you look at world wheat consumption, it has increased from 225 million tonnes in the early 1960's over 700 million tonnes today. I haven't done the exact math but the growth in last is about 3 % year. I did the math at 1 % and the world will have to produce over 1 billions tonnes in the next 50 years (2065).

On the threat side, the increase in production around the world has kept up to demand to date. Lots of challenges in some of our new competitors but they are gradually overcoming them to improve their productivity, quality and logistics. They are the ones taking advantage of increasing consumption - not North America at least in cereals (pulses and canola would be different). We loosing competitiveness in world markets as reflected in share of world production and reduced share of world trade.

You can then add in the uncertainty that could be associated with climate change.

[freewheat]

What about the uncertainty of the "wheat belly" issue? Does anyone think it is big enough to have much impact? I know it is a western world thing, but a lot of folks sure hold to not eating wheat these days.

Just thinking out loud here, but I wonder how many tonnes are NOT "needed", because of dietary changes regarding wheat?

[charliep]

My thoughts are not that big an impact.

[freewheat]

Thanks Charlie, that is my thought as well.

[blackpowder]

My attitude on wheat has done a 180 lately. Of course, I need to remember the difference in logistics etc. But I used to think, Oh if only I could get the right grade or spec or specialty attribute, that margins in my business, I could service an end buyer and all would be good.
Changed my mind. Wheat, from variety licensing to exporting has always been for one end use and a few buyers. After their needs were met the rest of production was dumped wherever.
Wheat is grown on the most acres of any crop in the world and is the largest source of vegetable protein in the world. Agronomicaly it is a cockroach. The wheat we traditionally grow is a small part.
Additionally, no matter how much effort I put into wheat it comes down to weather if it will "grade". Even if I could contract a specialty HRS to an end user, I would have a 1 in 3 chance of some downgrade.
Its become obvious to me that we grow too damn much of our "Canadian Wheat" already. At least to margin for me. Until yields catch up or specialty niches that work develop, (science, science, science) I have to treat it like the cockroach it is. Thankfully now, I have a few more alternatives than before. Specialty peas, malt barley. Canola will be "Old Reliable".

[furrowtickler]

Is there a way to track wheat product consumption in North America since the Wheat Belly book came out? And again when it started getting media attention re: W5? Kellogs is singing a different tune in direct relation to the wheat belly story - there cereal sales have plummited or so they say. If true it has to have a negative on domestic usage, no?