Percentage of Wheat Moved Monthly by Rail

[farming101]

WESTERN CANADA
<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/farming101/Percentage%20of%20wheat%20railed%20per%20month_zps z2jh0mv2.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo Percentage of wheat railed per month_zpsz2jh0mv2.jpg"/></a>

[bucket]

Great graphs.

Where is the data coming from?

Could you graph that in a percentage of production? Just to show if wheat is moving adequately. Canada should only need enough wheat for domestic use required carryover. The rest could be sold if movement was adequate.

And could you do a durum chart? Local has done few wheat trains mostly durum which is odd.

[charliep]

Just looking for a little explanation of the formula used. I assume percent of production moved by rail on a monthly basis but not sure. I also assume 2014 versus a ten year average.

[charliep]

A couple of other comments.

I would be interested in the raw numbers on wheat 2014 versus 10 year average.

I would also take one step further and include other crops. Bigger canola and pea export programs are a part of the story that also needs to be told.

[farming101]

Numbers pulled from CANSIM monthly rail loadings for western Canada.
Percentage for each month is based on the total shipped for the year,not production. All types of wheat including durum.

To find some decent data on durum, I think the best place would be the Grain Commission stats on weekly/monthly shipments from primary elevators. However, that includes all modes of transport and so would not reflect exactly what is going on rail.
Also, only the last couple years are up on the website. Have to request older data.

Might be some numbers that would yield something useful in the International Trade Database too.

[bucket]

Charliep

There is only one story.

We don't have enough track or car capacity to move our crop.

We have become an unreliable supplier so we take discounts.

Billions of dollars vanished and system never got better.

[charliep]

It will get me swore at here but I don't think the answer is that simple. I see a system where western Canadian grain system over commits sales at port. We also over commit at the primary elevator system via contracts. We don't have a logistics system that does a good of matching what is being sold with what is being delivered. It is also a system where there are winners (prime elevator locations with 100 car plus rail spots along main lines close to the west coast) and loosers (smaller elevators with small car spots, off main lines, farther from west coast).

[charliep]

Just curious if anyone looks at the information and statistics that are being developed by the Ag Transportation Coalition?

[URL="http://www.agtransportcoalition.com/"]Ag Transportation Coalition[/URL]

[tweety]

Lets see, 12 X 8 = 96%

What am i missing?

[charliep]

What the graph does show is seasonality. In normal (whatever they are) grain deliveries/movement spikes in November with the end of harvest and March/April with the end of winter/opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Last year, movement kept on going right into the summer. We can have the discussion about whether the result of the order in council or the humungous availability of crop for sale.

[Hopperbin]

101 if the chart shows percentage moved for the entire year then it dont add up cause would need to average 10 percent. Must be percentage of total production. Or something to that effect.

[Hopperbin]

Ooops need more like 8.333333 or so. Ok makes sense.

[farming101]

I thought wheat would be interesting to chart for 2014 vs the ten year average.

Probably the most important thing it shows is that in 2014 seasonality was worse than usual. Big crops are not going to get to export positions if resources are not used efficiently.

[Hopperbin]

Also they kicked er up 10 notches once they were told to get off their ass. Hmmm. So do we need regulation? What if no one put the pressure on?
What would have happenned? Overtime wages must have astronomical. Can it be possible to cross it with a chart that says they moved how much? Why are we so far behind today? I feel today like I cannot sell give away a working gps to a lost man. The lost man wants you to pay him. I heard on radio today cn dwell time is about 48 hours. Definition of dwell is after cars are loaded it takes cn 48 hours to show up to pull them away.
Cpr was well over a hundred. Did I hear correct?

[bucket]

Yep you heard it right hopper.

I think the least the railways could do is give elevators more than 24 hours to load 112 cars just from a safety point.