Actually will add in another factor. How many Canadian cattle will move south/will Alberta be competitive on a cost of gain basis?
Just looked at a outlook service I have access to. Their range on 2015/16 corn futures is $3.75 to $4/bu. Using the bottom end and a 75 cent over basis (worst case scenario) provides a USD $4.50/bu landed Alberta price or Cdn $225/tonne track. Cost of gain should keep calves north of the border. Having said, US buyers with expensive green backs will have a big advantage in both calves and feeders. You can add in the complexities including MCOOL from there in the decision about where animals are fed. Will have an impact on barley demand.
Just looked at a outlook service I have access to. Their range on 2015/16 corn futures is $3.75 to $4/bu. Using the bottom end and a 75 cent over basis (worst case scenario) provides a USD $4.50/bu landed Alberta price or Cdn $225/tonne track. Cost of gain should keep calves north of the border. Having said, US buyers with expensive green backs will have a big advantage in both calves and feeders. You can add in the complexities including MCOOL from there in the decision about where animals are fed. Will have an impact on barley demand.
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