CNCP Lament... Hunger Striker # 2...

[charliep]

I have some of the same concerns everyone else has here about the projections. Having said, I wouldn't bet against the Canola Council building a business case for farmers to grow more canola and help them achieve their target. The CCC has a track record of success. The 7 MMT by 2007 was achieved in 2005. The target of 15 MMT by 2015 was achieved in 2013. You keep highlighting the production but the real accomplishment from my side is the building of customer base to utilize the larger production. Demand pull.

[bucket]

Think.

If you are well over your ten year average of crop insurance production,
Do you report actual yield or bump it a bit to get a better average.?

Bins empty quicker than most realize. An extra point of dockage. Blah blah blah.

Not sure anyone knows the actual number when you have 2 years of revisions.

Under .75 mmt by July 2016.

Pending what mother nature decides in the next 4 weeks.

[bucket]

Charliep

Have a look at the weather. And COP.

Seed costs are enough to limit growth.

[charliep]

Then why do farmers grow canola? Push rotations?

I hear about complaints about movement. Has canola movement been as big an issue as with wheat?

[jake550]

Keep in mind that this crop is still grown outside and not in a greenhouse. I chuckle to myself when people talk like it's just that scientific to grow a crop.

[Hamloc]

Looked quickly at the last canola digest read the list of sponsors all from industry quickly read the article on 52 by 2025 and filed it under g. Until our rail problems are solved big canola crop of no benefit to farmers as a whole. Charlie my experience with canola is that weather makes a huge difference, if it is too hot during flowering or too humid increasing sclerotinia. I have talked to neighbors in any given year about yields and inputs and regardless of variety or fertilization yields only vary by 5 bushels an acre, mother nature rules the roost.

[charliep]

Did you attend your regional canola commission meeting? I was at a couple. The CCC agronomist ideas I saw presented were pretty realistic on field scale basis. Just everyday stuff of paying attention and making good investments.

[charliep]

Are other crops any different? Which crop will handle a stretch of 30 plus degree temperatures in July - barley or canola? Which crop will handle too much moisture during the growing season - peas or canola? I assume you guys look at all these factors and make planting decisons. Canola acres still go in.

I don't know why I get into arguement. Discussion is 10 years out. Transportation will change. You will grow what the market place wants/is willing to pay for.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

YOU ARE RIGHT!!!

Now enjoy a good St Patricks' Day!!!

Cheers!... with my glass of Water!!!

Think of CNCP for me!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie I challenge you!
Canola acres increased thanks to rain in the palliser triangle and south!
That's it!
What happens to yields when we go back to normal!
Just saying canola doesn't like mud but it hates a hot windy day at fliwering and filling'
And newbies will bale fast'

[freewheat]

Charlie, trying to compare different farmers costs is not easy. One guy may spend 40 dollars on N, and 50 bucks on machinery, and get 35 bushels. One guy may spend 75 bucks on N, and 15 dollars on machinery, and end up getting 52 bushels an acre.

It is not easy to compare. Around here, the smaller-mid size farmers IMO actually get the better average yields, because they have less tied up in land rent and machinery costs, so they go harder agronomically. Some guys have more love for steel, so they short themselves a bit to be driving a quad track or whatever. Also, the more acres farmed, it is simply harder to get EVERY piece of land produciing optimally.

Again. The number one reason canola yields have gone up, is rainfall and less heat in usually dry and hot areas. The number two reason, is soaking inputs on relative to 10 or 15 years ago. Weather has to be good to hit 50. everyone is spending money on fungicides, needed or not. Some guys swear they work, some guys think they are pointless. Many guys now pencil it in as a matter of course.

Some guys make more money with 35 bushel canola, than their neighbor with 50 does, and vice versa, because of their focus in life.

Canola sucks with wet feet. Peas suck worse with wet feet. Barley sucks with wet feet. I see few crops that do much better than the other in saturated soils. So for me, in the wettest of the wet zone, my cropping plans have little to do with excessive moisture.

Another thing. You ask why we keep growing canola. Honestly Charlie, here is my response. Take it for what it is worth.

Farmers honestly are not as smart as you think. You give them far too much credit for financial savvy. I think the guys on here, honestly are far from typical, in that I think most are smarter than the average guy out there with their money. Some sure are on top of things. But most guys do a quick gross revenue calculation, and forget that canola costs way more to grow.

Canola also is one of the few crops where a true home run can be hit. It is about the lottery factor. A 60 bushel canola crop would net out better than almost any crop of wheat, barley, or oats. Guys are going for the holy grail, they want the home run. Trouble is in most areas the home run only hits once every 5 or so years. But when you have hit that home run before, you want it again. It is a drug like factor to be frank.

Secondly, with cash advances based on Crop insurance yield times price, to get a decent cash advance for summer operating, the highest GROSSING crop will pull you the most up front cash. So that is another reason. Most guys highest grosser is canola by a fair margin. If it went by net revenue, less canola would be grown for the advance advantage.

[freewheat]

Forgot Charlie, you asked how canola has been moving. Around here, it has been absolutely terrible. I have never, ever, ever struggled to ship canola, and turn it into cash. But this year, I have not been able to send any at will.

I ask the 52 average yield people: What is the point of growing big crops that can not be shipped? Is another line being built that I know nothing about???

[furrowtickler]

The last few years of gains in canola have also been driven by very low disease in 2013 and very low insect presure the past 4 years . Disease was a limiting factor here last year - 50 seemed to be a plateau for most regardless of fertility or variety. The odd full bore field that was not too wet went 60 plus. The majority was mid forties even with good fertility .
I believe 52 is possible but a lot of stars are going to have to line up - all the time.
The varieties are there, most agronomy is close, but Mother Nature will dictate.

[freewheat]

Oh, there is no question the agronomy is there. My dad grew 45 bushel canola in the early 80's with far less agronomic know how than now. It has been there for some time, IMO.

But yeah, 20 million acres is a lot of acres to have blessed by near perfect weather, each and every year. And so that is why I feel it will not happen.

[SASKFARMER3]

My point is yes the new varieties are good but good for wet conditions or basically the canola dome!
Lots will be surprised how well canola does in normal sask and alberta weather!
Manitoba is soy and corn and moved on!