Mind the gaps boys

[charliep]

To hopefully bring back to macdon02 original post.

CBT soybean oil (May) make a break towards 31 cents/lb (resistance in my mind) and has since made a move lower to the bottom end of its trading range.

Canola (nearby) found support at $456/tonne and has moved higher.

The loonie made a run at 80 cents and has crashed back to 78 cents.

I could link the charts if someone likes. Interesting times with lots of things in play.

[Oliver88]

Charlie - The main things I am watching is the CDN$ and Minne futures.
The Fx seems to change 8 cents for every 1 cent the CDN$ changes.

If you could chart the CDN$ vs Minneapolis contract that would be great.

[charliep]

Won't post the links but it is interested to look at monthly charts back to Dec 2008 to April 2009 for canola, soybean oil and the loonie. It is eerie how similar things are to today. Perhaps a question as to whether 2015 will follow a similar path to 2009 out of the ugliness or 2015 will prove to be something different.

[charliep]

I may have to get some help from farming101. He show me how to use photobucket (hopefully name is right) but I have forgot.

[Oliver88]

Yes I will have to learn how to post charts myself.

Might need to get a clinic from Farming 101.

[vvalk]

Not sure how you hedge western Canadian grains as Errol talks about. Nothing for any specialty crops so 1/2 the farm. Nothing for any of the barleys. Spring wheat off minni and canola both do not have liquid enough markets to do options. The spread on buying and selling make it not a smart trade. it's like paying 5% on each trade to buy and sell stocks. Using any Chicago futures is not the same thing for Hedging.

[Hopperbin]

Remember usa dollar up 15 percent can down 12. So our dollar up 3 on the basket of others. With euro russia ukraine brazil argentina undercutting our currency. I am selling everything all inventory tomorrow.

[Nudge]

Doesn't really matter whether you call it hedging or speculating. It all has the same risk. If you don't want risk don't farm. For canola and hrsw the most important thing to learn long before call/put strategies is to separate basis and futures decisions. Lots of money to be made/lost on that alone. Majority of farmers are flat price marketers. Grainco's love you dearly. But they love flat price, spot marketers even more. Was at a PH meeting a while back and one of their speakers was a merchant in the east. He gets on to talking about offering US basis or Canadian basis for wheat. Apparently east of mb you can take your pick and separate currency from the equation. He had no idea they didn't offer it in the west. The western guy said 'we will never offer that' I told him if he wanted to buy more HRSW he should.

[farming101]

Reply posted Nov 14, 2014 22:21
Charlie, here goes with the pasting pictures.
All graphics, pictures charts whatever are treated as pictures. So they need to be placed in a web friendly format, usually jpeg works good.
So that these picture files can be easily accessed by anyone reading the message board they have to be inserted from the web, so an online picture service like Photobucket is used.
Steps required:
1) register with Photobucket. I have found the Firefox browser and Photobucket don't like each other. I like to keep a Photobucket account that I use only for pictures posted to forums like Agriville.
2) For convenience start a new picture folder on your computer where all pics you will be posting can be easily located.
3) Actual pictures are the easiest to paste. Charts are tougher. I use the Paint feature on my Windows based computer to work with pics I will be posting.
For charts you will need to copy and paste the chart into paint; if it looks okay save it as a jpeg into your new picture folder. Many times you may want to clean up a picture by cropping. Good if there is something you would rather not have the whole world see! Also, there may be times when you want to use the Print Screen feature to copy what you have on your screen into Paint. These will definitely need cropping to tidy up.
4) Once your pictures are ready log into Photobucket and upload your pictures.Select the one you want to insert into your message on Agriville. Once selected, a box on the right hand side of the page will highlight the HTML link to your picture. Click it once, it will flash "copied". Then select the place in your message you what the picture to appear, hit Control-V buttons (paste) and the address for your picture will be pasted into the message. When your return to the discussion you can see how it turned out.

I guess after all that I see why there are not many pics on this forum. There may be easier ways but that is what I do.

[bucket]

Nudge

You are probably right.

Here is the thing northern tier elevators have moved their basis to minus 20 cents a bushel off mpls.

5.79 minus 20 equals 5.59 usd.

5.59 usd equals 7.15 cdn.

They might love us flat pricers looking for delivery. But I suspect they love basis guys as well. The graincos are ****ing everyone.

Local says he has a plus 65 cent per bushel basis and I can't get 6.50 cdn for wheat. The math isn't right.

I guess the question is. If I lived close to the border how is it that a minus 20 basis in the US pays better than a plus 65 in canada?

[grassfarmer]

Thats good farming101. The photos from photobucket are easy enough I do it on other forums. Problem with this forum is I have never yet been able to post pictures from a Mac, works off a crappy old PC we have. Wish someone could post the solution to that.
Also be handy if Admin. could post the instructions how to put up pictures as a sticky note - ie a topic that is always at the top of the list of threads as other web forums do.

[Nudge]

Bucket,
Can't say I disagree with the ffing everyone. There is no love for graincos these days.