Week 30 grain movement finally starts to improve...

[TOM4CWB]

Summary
CN and CP supplied 2,302 (37%) of the 6,228 hopper cars ordered for delivery in week 30. They supplied a further 4,202 cars that fulfilled customer orders from previous weeks. When railway car orders are not supplied to shippers in the week they are ordered, some shipper grain sales will be lost and some will be deferred. Lost sales cannot be recovered as international buyers will obtain this grain from suppliers outside Canada. Deferred sales may be filled by the grain company in later weeks using cars supplied later on in the year by the railway. However, deferred sales can still result in extra costs to the supply chain through higher inventory carrying costs, payment of contract penalties by shippers, payment of ocean demurrage for waiting vessels and loss of goodwill with overseas customers.
The accumulation of each weeks unfulfilled demand for hopper cars remains over 23,000 cars for the current year and represents the total volume of missed and deferred shipper orders. The net unfulfilled demand – those orders that shippers continue to expect the railways to supply excluding orders associated with rejected cars, denied orders and railway cancellations – is now 9,539 orders.
Railway Car Supply – Grain Week 30
 CN spotted 3,500 hopper cars and CP spotted 3,004 hopper cars in the country in Grain Week 30 for a total supply of 6,504 cars – this included 4,202 cars that had been ordered for prior weeks. Grain Week 30 car spotting performance for CN and CP was lower than weekly average of car spots of just under 3,600 cars per week for each railway.
o In Grain Week 30 CN and CP supplied 2,302 (37%) of the 6,228 hopper cars ordered for delivery in Grain Week 30 representing a shortfall of 3,926 cars for Grain Week 30 orders.
o To date, the railways have supplied 43% of customer orders in the week for which cars were ordered with CN providing 55% of cars for the week they were ordered and CP 30% of cars in the week they were ordered.
ï‚· Through the first 30 weeks of the current crop year, railways have failed to supply 23,295 hopper cars ordered by shippers. This represents a shortfall equivalent to 11% of shipper demand. The number of hopper car orders not filled by both CN and CP has continued to increase each week since the beginning of the crop year; overall, unfulfilled orders have levelled off at about 10% of total shipper demand in recent weeks indicating that the railways are not making up ground for prior week shortfalls.
o more than 3,500 customer orders – approximately 37% of unfulfilled orders - have been outstanding for 4 weeks or longer 1
ï‚· Boxcar shippers received 58% of cars ordered for Grain Week 30. This reflects continued deterioration in performance and represents the lowest level of fulfillment for this shipper group in the previous 7 week period. Full year fulfillment remains at 67% of shipper orders.
Corridor Performance
ï‚· In Grain Week 30 traffic destined to bulk terminals in Western Canada received a higher percentage (41%) of cars than other corridors. By comparison, non-bulk corridors including the USA/Mexico, Vancouver transload and Canadian domestic corridors received 26% of cars ordered for delivery in Grain Week 30.
ï‚· While CN fulfilled 31% of orders in non-bulk corridors, CP supplied 23% of cars for current week orders in Grain Week 30 in non-bulk corridors.
1 Based on net unfulfilled demand – excluding rejections, cancellations and denied orders – of 9,539.
1|
Weekly Performance Update – To Grain Week 30 (CY 2014)
Railway Dwell Times at Country Origins:
 In Grain Week 30, CN’s loaded dwell times for multicar block traffic at country origin locations averaged 39 hours while CP’s loaded dwell times averaged 86 hours. CN’s performance in Grain Week 30 is slightly below its YTD average of 41 hours; CP performance improved significantly in Grain Week 30 from the prior week.
o In the crop year to date, 36% of all bulk grain shipments have waited for more than 48 hours at origin for pick up by the railways after being released by shippers for movement to destination. Only 28% of shipments were picked up within 24 hours.
Railway Dwell Times at Destination Terminals – Grain Week 30:
ï‚· CN: Thunder Bay (96 hours), Vancouver bulk (20 hours) and Vancouver transload/local (45 hours)
ï‚· CP : Thunder Bay (42 hours), Vancouver bulk (14 hours) and Vancouver transload/local (14 hours)
ï‚· Thunder Bay dwell times continue to reflect limited traffic volumes as shipments to this terminal have slowed
in recent weeks.
ï‚· The decrease in dwell times at Vancouver for CN and CP may reflect the return to normal service levels
following operational disruptions due to the brief work stoppage experienced February 15 – 16.

[bucket]

Last I heard they were only unloading cars at the coast 5 days a week because that's all they had.

Pretty nice weather to say they are making an effort?

Why are elevators still plugged and basis levels wide if we are making progress?

What was it 28 boats at the coast waiting for grain?

Someone is blowing smoke?

[wmoebis]

Maybe that is all the sales there is and those boats are just waiting, knowing there will be shipment some day. Just like the RR and markets they know we have to sell sometime at some price.

Like taxi cabs at the airport.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ever been to Regina Airport when a Big flight arrives from Air Transat.
No cabs, or a few then told they will be back after dropping off clients.
Ah wait and wait and wait.

[wmoebis]

Yes, but when no scheduled flight there is a line up waiting for the odd fare.

[bucket]

And that's the justification for the graincos/railway shit show for the last 2 years.

Wmoebis - you gotta do better than that.

[TOM4CWB]

Did you guys actually read the above info?

"When railway car orders are not supplied to shippers in the week they are ordered, some shipper grain sales will be lost and some will be deferred. Lost sales cannot be recovered as international buyers will obtain this grain from suppliers outside Canada. Deferred sales may be filled by the grain company in later weeks using cars supplied later on in the year by the railway. However, deferred sales can still result in extra costs to the supply chain through higher inventory carrying costs, payment of contract penalties by shippers, payment of ocean demurrage for waiting vessels and loss of goodwill with overseas customers. "

Your speculations need to be factual... which shippers are trying to provide here!

[bucket]

That sounds like they are following the old cwb playbook.


But at least the cwb would load the boat and then find a home for the grain once the end user cancelled or wanted to renegotiate terms.(China would wait for the go or no go point to start negotiations )

[farming101]

CP railway leaves loaded unit trains sitting at the elevator for an average of 89 hours after they are released. It has been even worse but I wouldn't call it an improvement.
Makes all the boasting by CP about being efficient ring hollow.
The railway charges shippers demurrage if the cars aren't loaded in 24 hours.
That's no way to run a railroad.

[bucket]

Farming101

At the very least if a train is going to sit, you would think the grainco and railways could come to an agreement about loading times. Maybe go to 48 hours to load on a 112 car unit.

Mostly I am thinking from a safety point of view. Rain snow winter hours.

Since they say grain is a low value on another thread where does that put the safety of workers lives when loading cars?

[farming101]

For CP Canadian grain freight was the single biggest segment of their freight revenues.
It brought in more per revenue ton mile than coal, potash or crude.
988 million in revenue in 2014. Looks like low value, bulky grains have hit the big time for some of the players in the game.

[TOM4CWB]

Farming,

It was interesting to see that BNSF does not own any of the oil tank cars they pull with crude in them. They are all leased look like the oil producers. CP has about 300 sitting east of Stettler so the shine is going off the oil haul for CP as well... at $50/bbl the $18/bbl to haul the oil does not compute... once the higher priced supply contracts that were hedged run out!!

http://flatheadbeacon.com/2015/03/23/oil-train-fires-leaks-put-rail-safety-back-in-the-spotlight/

"Jones said that no oil has been discovered along BNSF’s right-of-way through North Dakota, Montana, Idaho and Washington.

When the leaks were discovered, the railroad notified Washington environmental officials and the U.S. Department of Transportation. In Vancouver, Federal Railroad Administration inspectors looked at the seven tank cars that had been removed there and found that the top valve fitting seals, made by McKenzie Valve & Machining, were broken. Inspectors found that the valves used on the tank cars, which are owned by the Union Tank Car Company, were not consistent with the standards set by the Association of American Railroads. On March 13, the FRA issued a directive for all tank car owners to replace the faulty valves within 60 days. Most tank cars are owned by leasing companies and not the railroads that move them.

“Any type of hazardous materials release, no matter how small, is completely unacceptable,” said Acting FRA Administrator Sarah Feinberg. “The removal of these valves from service will help reduce the number of non-accident hazardous materials releases.”

Jones said the railroad fully supports the FRA directive to replace the faulty valves.

“Although BNSF does not own the tank cars, nothing is more important to us than safely operating through the communities that we serve,” he said. “We will work closely with our customers and shippers as they undertake the steps outlined in the directive.”

But leaking tank cars are not the only issue to have cropped up along North America’s rails this year. In less than three weeks, beginning in mid-February, four oil trains derailed and exploded in North America, including two in Ontario, one in West Virginia and another in Illinois. All four trains that derailed had the CPC-1232 tank cars, which were believed to be more puncture resistant and safer than the DOT-111 tank cars that were at the center of the deadly 2013 Quebec oil train wreck that killed 47 people and leveled 30 buildings in the small town of Lac-Mégantic.

Following the recent rash of wrecks, Canadian regulators mandated that shippers and railroads start using new tank cars, called the DOT-117, which feature an even thicker shell and thermal protection jackets. Transport Canada has also announced that all CPC-1232 cars, the ones that were meant to replace the old and outdated DOT-111 cars, must be off Canadian rails by 2025."