An opinion: U.S.headed for recession

[cottonpicken]

Need to find a etf with a vix on currencies.

Some entities are going start/or did getting smoked on their carry trades.

Wild times.

[errolanderson]

The incredible run-up in the U.S dollar has hurt the American economy immensely. Cheap pump prices do not replace lost jobs.

A potential pullback in the U.S. dollar may have a huge domino impact across all markets straight ahead.

[cottonpicken]

What floors me is thinking if this was just one country the outcomes would be be written in stone of what happens next,now its happening across the developed world and then some and everyone is guessing what happens next friction bizarre.

[Oilking]

Errol, when u say a huge impact across all commodities, are u expecting the grain markets to go down here next week or in the short term ? If U.S dollar goes down would it not support grain prices ?

[errolanderson]

Oilking . . . Yes, a pullback in the U.S. dollar would be supportive to grain prices (IMO) in particular wheat. Wheat has been hard hit by the steady climb in the American greenback.

The U.S. Fed is talking up the story of hiking rates, but economic data won't back up this hype. With the U.S. economy showing cracks, even the Euro may bounce. The spot loonie could easily push north of 80 cents on American weakness.

But this might impact CDN cattle prices in a negative way, especially after Mother's Day wholesale beef buying is covered.

Global markets are really out-of-alignment. Economics not ruling rather it's been the flow of money from central banker interference that's really buggering markets up. This interference is going to trigger potentially nasty volatility ahead.

Cash wheat up, cash cattle down by summer, spot loonie oversold, Alberta bitumen oversold,
cash canola bids firm until late crop year, feed barley strong into new crop, Calgary real estate just in the early stage of weakness, solid demand for edible peas this fall, lower Bank of Canada rates this summer/fall and no hope in hell of any U.S. Fed rate hike anytime soon.

[Rareearth]

Consider this:

Late yesterday, the US and Iran reached a framework agreement on a nuclear deal. There’s still some negotiating to be done, but this is a big step. If all goes according to plan, the two sides will sign a comprehensive agreement by June 30, and the West will lift all sanctions on Iran’s banking and oil industries. Some analysts predict that the impending flood of Iranian oil could drive prices down to $20 a barrel.

On a more bullish note, global demand for oil could surprise to the upside this year. And there’s also the serious risk that Saudi Arabia’s oil exporting infrastructure could be damaged if its intervention in Yemen backfires.

[Rareearth]

Then if oil is $20 bucks a barrel, what is the Canadian dollar relative to USA green back?

[cottonpicken]

The big problem with zirp and money printing is that it pulls forward demand and now that we are seven years in we are facing structural challenges with over supply. Copper mines,iron ore,oil etc etc.

How many more ghost cities is china really going to build?they used more cement in three years than the us did in the entire 20th century. I dont know about you guys but that blows my mind.

If the entire world wasnt racing to debase their currencies we would be in a serious shit storm Ricky. (Trailer park boys)

If you guys are in oil keep a good eye on the charts and inventories

[errolanderson]

Alberta is definately in a (Trailer Park Boys quote).

Not only is the largest sector tied to energy, but cheap money have investors borrowing to invest in equities while delaying a mortgage pay down.

Now oil has collapsed, real estate is weakening and stock markets? Ricky at least calls a spade-a-spade.

[cottonpicken]

Errol,you been following all the stock buy backs?

Weird.

A fund manger i follow actually started an etf tracking companies that use free cash flow to purchase their shares,as apposed to debt finance buybacks like cp,anywhoos them top share holders are going to make out like bandits.