What keeps me up at night is cost push inflation. This is not the proper reference to the definition but have no other term to use.
You can use quite a few industries experiencing this at the moment base metals,oil, whatever doesn't matter. Anyway you have got plummeting demand and price and costs are not moving so the only remedy is on the supply side but what does the average do?produce more and more making the problem worse and worse. A lot of that is standard Econ 101 except for the fact the macro is in no mans land.
Zero interest rate policy pulled forward demand and things that should have waited where given the green light. Purchasing is cheap cheap cheap but look at what that did,created false demand and spun out all sorts of false indicators for the market.
Its a Potemkin village.
So the question becomes what happens if the liquidity drys up and there are no exits left for anyone,if that happens you will see serious serious problems and then the printing will really start.
You can use quite a few industries experiencing this at the moment base metals,oil, whatever doesn't matter. Anyway you have got plummeting demand and price and costs are not moving so the only remedy is on the supply side but what does the average do?produce more and more making the problem worse and worse. A lot of that is standard Econ 101 except for the fact the macro is in no mans land.
Zero interest rate policy pulled forward demand and things that should have waited where given the green light. Purchasing is cheap cheap cheap but look at what that did,created false demand and spun out all sorts of false indicators for the market.
Its a Potemkin village.
So the question becomes what happens if the liquidity drys up and there are no exits left for anyone,if that happens you will see serious serious problems and then the printing will really start.
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