Copy and pasted from Farmfutures.com
Low crop prices and a late harvest kept many farmers from applying as much fertilizer as they normally do last fall. Now shifting fertilizer costs could bring additional changes as weather is again an issue early in the growing season – and crop prices aren't much, if any, better.
Ammonia remains stubbornly expensive here in the U.S., despite hints of lower prices internationally. Average retail costs edged almost $2 higher this week to $678, but many growers are paying north of $700, especially in the heart of the Corn Belt. That may make other forms of nitrogen competitive on a unit cost basis, as farmers seek to shave costs with smaller and later applications wherever they can. Wholesale prices in the U.S. appear steady for NH3, with terminals $615 to $625 and the Gulf index at $440. Those costs translate into fair retail values around $655, a price that's available only on the Plains. Fundamentals suggests costs should break to $600 or less by summer, with not much risk of prices going any higher unless the supply chain breaks down.
Urea prices continue on a downward trajectory, with another break in wholesale costs finally starting to lower retail prices. Though the drop at the farmgate level was modest, around $8 to an average of $446, more reductions could be ahead thanks to imports that are up sharply from year-ago levels. Costs at the Gulf dropped around $16 to $271, and upriver terminals were also a little lower – they're running around $325 or so. Based on those costs, retail prices should be lower, down in the $385 range. Swaps into July are another $20 below the nearby for the Gulf, suggesting further reductions ahead. Traders are watching another tender from India to see if it changes the market dynamics, with Chinese offers likely undercut this time, amid talk the government may increase export taxes after its change in taxes earlier this year.
UAN prices are also headed lower, at least at the wholesale level, because retail costs remain fairly firm as farmers turn to nitrogen alternatives. The index for 32% at the Gulf slipped another $7 last week to $251.50, with swaps even lower, down to $245.50 on Tuesday. Those costs actually suggest fair value retail for 28% around the $320 average prices, but swamps for July/August are a whopping $40 lower for post-application buying that could take retail expenses down to $275 to $280.
Phosphates are firm mostly at the retail level, though some products are starting to show price declines. The average cost of DAP remains around $558 a ton, very expensive considering the reduction seen recently at the wholesale level. Imports are up on a year-to-year basis and wholesale costs are lower, after some volatility earlier this month. Costs at the Gulf jumped $10 to $20 a ton briefly, but the index Tuesday was back to $400. Swaps suggest another $20 reduction is possible into July, which would take the fair value on restocking to around $515.
Potash prices eased almost $1.50 on average last week, but costs overall are little changed around $483.50. That right on target with our fair value projection based on wholesale prices, which also dropped a little to $392.50 at terminals. Fundamentals suggest retail costs around $475 based on supply and demand, with potential for a little softer prices this summer. Hopes for a price war by international manufacturers remains alive, but so far hasn't materialized much.
Can also get free charts on NOLA prices here. http://www.commodity3.com/physical/fertilurea/fx-&-fertil-granular-&-prilled-urea
Im not affiliated with these guys just passing on info. There's export prices on Canadian grain in the link as well, lots of good stuff all free.
Low crop prices and a late harvest kept many farmers from applying as much fertilizer as they normally do last fall. Now shifting fertilizer costs could bring additional changes as weather is again an issue early in the growing season – and crop prices aren't much, if any, better.
Ammonia remains stubbornly expensive here in the U.S., despite hints of lower prices internationally. Average retail costs edged almost $2 higher this week to $678, but many growers are paying north of $700, especially in the heart of the Corn Belt. That may make other forms of nitrogen competitive on a unit cost basis, as farmers seek to shave costs with smaller and later applications wherever they can. Wholesale prices in the U.S. appear steady for NH3, with terminals $615 to $625 and the Gulf index at $440. Those costs translate into fair retail values around $655, a price that's available only on the Plains. Fundamentals suggests costs should break to $600 or less by summer, with not much risk of prices going any higher unless the supply chain breaks down.
Urea prices continue on a downward trajectory, with another break in wholesale costs finally starting to lower retail prices. Though the drop at the farmgate level was modest, around $8 to an average of $446, more reductions could be ahead thanks to imports that are up sharply from year-ago levels. Costs at the Gulf dropped around $16 to $271, and upriver terminals were also a little lower – they're running around $325 or so. Based on those costs, retail prices should be lower, down in the $385 range. Swaps into July are another $20 below the nearby for the Gulf, suggesting further reductions ahead. Traders are watching another tender from India to see if it changes the market dynamics, with Chinese offers likely undercut this time, amid talk the government may increase export taxes after its change in taxes earlier this year.
UAN prices are also headed lower, at least at the wholesale level, because retail costs remain fairly firm as farmers turn to nitrogen alternatives. The index for 32% at the Gulf slipped another $7 last week to $251.50, with swaps even lower, down to $245.50 on Tuesday. Those costs actually suggest fair value retail for 28% around the $320 average prices, but swamps for July/August are a whopping $40 lower for post-application buying that could take retail expenses down to $275 to $280.
Phosphates are firm mostly at the retail level, though some products are starting to show price declines. The average cost of DAP remains around $558 a ton, very expensive considering the reduction seen recently at the wholesale level. Imports are up on a year-to-year basis and wholesale costs are lower, after some volatility earlier this month. Costs at the Gulf jumped $10 to $20 a ton briefly, but the index Tuesday was back to $400. Swaps suggest another $20 reduction is possible into July, which would take the fair value on restocking to around $515.
Potash prices eased almost $1.50 on average last week, but costs overall are little changed around $483.50. That right on target with our fair value projection based on wholesale prices, which also dropped a little to $392.50 at terminals. Fundamentals suggest retail costs around $475 based on supply and demand, with potential for a little softer prices this summer. Hopes for a price war by international manufacturers remains alive, but so far hasn't materialized much.
Can also get free charts on NOLA prices here. http://www.commodity3.com/physical/fertilurea/fx-&-fertil-granular-&-prilled-urea
Im not affiliated with these guys just passing on info. There's export prices on Canadian grain in the link as well, lots of good stuff all free.