Fact or fiction?

[grassfarmer]

The Ritz quote:
"…….Canadian farmers are thriving. Farm cash receipts and net operating incomes continue to achieve all-time highs."

Rhetoric about what happened in the 1980's aside can this statement possibly be true? Surely for 2013 and 2014 crop years they must have been significantly lower than the 2009-12 period? If so how can they be achieving "all time highs" now?

So is Ritz lying or are the large number of farmers who post on here about land going unrented and the hardships they are suffering lying? It's got to be one or the other.
Is Ritz spouting fact or fiction?

[SASKFARMER3]

Grass buddy I think some day you smoke quite a bit! Look at the flood zone it's a shit show for the last 8 then the other areas that couldn't grow shit all are getting nice crops! Rest are all doing ok so yes ritz is right on the 2013 did have the highest returns for some! Of your good with Nimbers it's easy flood is low and rest are above to average yea the number would be higher that year,
But the comment on all is working now is bull shit, that Roy has wrong! Expense is up 7 % and grain is down a good 30% so 2015 might suck!

[freewheat]

I dunno, my highest returns were the dry years of 2001-2003. Big yields those years, and canola was 3.50 a lb for invigor. Nitrogen was 23 cents or sommething like that.

Net returns were awesome.

My dad did very well in the late eighties, again in the years it was dry, and with minimal input costs. In real dollar terms, net returns of those years make today's look like a joke.

No doubt some have had a good last few years, if they had the big crops, prices were good.

Ritz isn't lying, and neither are the farmers who have not had luck. Sorry to not answer your question.

[grassfarmer]

SF3,
I've never smoked anything in my life. Just trying to make sense of the claims made by Ritz versus those made by you and others on here.

Set the flood issue aside I understand that.

Both of the last 2 winters this forum has seen a constant barrage of complaints about basis levels, how input costs are getting out of hand relative to the return farmers are getting for their grain. Lots of talk about locking the bins and not selling at these low prices. Also the RR issue of poor grain movement.

Are you claiming that grain prices and farm net operating incomes (outwith the flood zones) are still achieving all time highs? - this winter and last -because that's what Ritz is claiming. Would farmers in these other areas agree with you?

If what you say is true then the flooding problem must be almost the sole problem in prairie grain production. Is that true?

[TOM4CWB]

Grassy,

By the looks of land prices being paid by farmers for grain land... there would be a good case to be made that generally we have had a good couple of years! Gross Income Farm numbers would back this up. Cattle certainly are good right now.

[BreadWinner]

In my opinion if you cant make it in todays farming environment you will not make it in the real rough years. I'm also it the shitshow area and we still go on trips buy different vehicles, equipment, ect. I think Ritz is probably right because the guys in Alberta that pulled off 50 plus canola last year are doing just fine. If you averages out farm receipts it probably looks pretty rosy.

[SASKFARMER3]

Back to my explanation alberta made out like a bandit I'll agree with that big yields on canola, no sick yields! Lifetime yields! I saw a map with canola yields using I think deliveries! Alberta had great crops and price both wheat and canola Manitoba did ok west sask did very well also! Flood One did awful!
Mathematically it was a good year compared to normal! 15 canola and 9 hrs!
But nothing is fixed! That'sy point, all he did was study and hope it would work out by a lower production year like last year! He wins as last year was poorer! Soaybe he doesn't even believe the bill shit we have to grow more!
Brave I'm thinking like free bring on a drought we will have our hay day!
Oh highway boys finally grilled one of my trucks today full end to end inspection by the guy! Got his dolly out and end to end underneath all he got was one headlight out!
3/4 hour lost! Ah farming!

[grassfarmer]

TOM, the "looks of land prices" may give some indication of farm profitability but it's not the same as quoting average grain prices over the last 5 years is it? Similarly Breadwinners comment implying that things could be worse doesn't show the prices.

Isn't it the case that 2013 was a year of unusually high yields across much of the prairies and 2014 was a return to more normal yields?
Didn't canola fall from $13 to $9?
I'm not trying to trick anyone into saying they secretly admire the CWB just trying to establish whether Ritz's comments were as far out of line as they looked to me.

Remember his quote was "Farm cash receipts and net operating incomes continue to achieve all-time highs."

TOM hit the jackpot with his observation on cattle prices - I suspect this is how he is manipulating the figures to paint a rosy picture. Lower grain prices will have helped the supply managed and hog sectors too.
Ritz made similar claims during the BSE crisis that things were "very good" using higher grain sector incomes as the tool to manipulate with that time.

Hey, if you guys are OK with getting played like this it's fine by me, I just thought there was some kind of crisis in the grain sector at the moment. My bad

[MBgrower]

I have to agree with tom, look at land values. Sure there is some investors buying, but its mostly farmers buying land.

[MBgrower]

I have to agree with tom, look at land values. Sure there is some investors buying, but its mostly farmers buying land.

[wakopa]

good money since the end of cwb,(screw the cwb)even 2016 is looking good for me as long as i get an avearage crop,ching ching.

[Oliver88]

Land prices will be an indicator of how things are going in the country side.
Rent on average, is 20% of gross revenue for the past three years. (According to FCC hired consultants)

I personally think land prices have plateaued and might decrease slightly for a few years.

[stonepicker]

Have to agree with Tom and others, land prices are at an extreme all time high as well rent in the area is extremely high, this isn't an indication of farmers struggling, it's an indication of prosperity. Things have been FAR worse. More upside than downside ahead.

[GOODRUM]

How can there be such extreme opinions on the state of agriculture? Good for you guys that are optimistic , I wish I was in a better mood.
Is it because you are better farmers? Grow more bushels ? Better marketers? Or from a certain area?
My crops were shit last year and crop insurance kicked in , so this brings to light its weakness's.
I have struggled to move grain this winter even though I produced 1/3 rd of 2013.
Why the hell is this ? Grain movement is horrible , is it because you fellas that are feeling good about things were getting double the rail service at our expense?
I think this might explain it, I shouldn't argue with u if u say it's good ,
But at least look at the other side, prices are not high enough at last years soggy yields to turn a profit, so unless your trying to stretch last years welfare (crop insurance) u don't know what it's really like.
My guess is the optimistic ones haven't had the weather related issues to deal with that some of us have.
Just trying to understand why the split opinions.

[GOODRUM]

Just my opinion on land prices, the investors initially drove the prices up, farmers want and need to expand and with the increase in land values had access to more borrowing power and decided to invest , expand and keep ownership out of the hands of investors.
It's a catch 22,, farmers could borrow more because the existing land base allowed it.