Game Changing Canola Ending Stocks

[crusher]

I see Stats Can just released their ending stocks. This year at .94. Next year they dropped from 1.4 to .5. If that is not a typo, and is somewhat accurate, it should give firm support.

Some reseeding going on here due to fros, ours finally went from the bag to the ground.

Happy Seeding to all those still at it!! And congrats to those finished.

[charliep]

This won't be a statistics canada estimate. Likely agriculture and agr-food canada market analysis branch. This number will be their forecasts although hasn't been updated on their website.

Regardless, the canola carryover will be tight on July 31 with well over 16 MMT of disappearance. The tight carryover is a well known number so the canola will adjust (i.e. long maintanence shutdowns) so not likely impact on futures (will follow soybeans and soyoil). Could be fireworks on basis but that will get muddled when grain companies/crushers move to November as their reference month.

If you want something to happen outside world oilseeds/US soybeans, the issues will be the 2015 Canadian canola production. Disappearance opportunities 16 MMT - western Canadian production (yield times acres) will be _____ MMT. Place your bets/takes your chances.

[charliep]

I see we all get our information off good morning prairies report. Don't know they even beat the AAFC website update. As indicated Market Analysis branch, AAFC.

[URL="http://www.rayglen.com/pdf/Canada%20Principal%20Field%20CropsMay2015-e.pdf"]AAFC[/URL]

[charliep]

The most significant information is the 2015/16 stuff. 2014/15 is history at this point.

[charliep]

Too many posts on my part but crop progress will also impact the old/new crop pricing. Early harvest (lots done in August) makes the carryover less critical. Late harvest (Sep./Oct) makes the carryover more important. Would comment likely early harvest this year (early seeding/drier) but obviously cold temps/re-seeding could impact.

Also having a handle on grain company fall shipping impacts. Canola has historically had big shipping programs in the fall. This summer, wheat inventories are relatively big. If I were a grain, I would put more priority on moving wheat as a major part of my late summer/fall logistics. Could be wrong but this is something I think will be in play.

[errolanderson]

The global veg oil market is lifeless due to the economic meltdown in China.

The bigger question for canola may be where will U.S. soybean prices be one month from now?

[WPmarkets]

Our daily market wrap helps explain Agriculture Canada's switch to tighter stocks. Also info on Prairie freeze damage and worries about huge rains expected in southern US Plains.
read it here:
http://www.producer.com/?p=145712

[sumdumguy]

We need rain.